Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

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danfrank
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

Post by danfrank »

I also think there’s a decent chance Boseman doesn’t win, with Hopkins as the likely benefactor and Ahmed as the wild card. My personal rankings:

1. Riz Ahmed
2. Steven Yeun
3. Chadwick Boseman
4. Anthony Hopkins
5. Gary Oldman
Sabin
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

Post by Sabin »

I'm starting to wonder if Chadwick Boseman really is a lock to win the Oscar this year. I think he's clearly the safe bet but I'm wondering if his Glenn Close-hurdle might be bigger than we originally thought.

- No, Ma Rainey wasn't up for Best Picture. But unlike The Wife, it's up for five Academy Awards. That's a strong total. But (he said again) three of them are down ballot. It's not up for a writing award. Ma Rainey essentially failed every qualitative measure of the film besides it being very well-acted and it being well-dressed.

- Every Best Actor winner this past decade was from a Best Picture nominee. The last time one wasn't was Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart and generally Bridges had easier competition. With very few exceptions (Russell Crowe vs. Denzel Washington), it sure does look like there is a strong correlation between the enjoyment of a leading male performance and the film (y'know, enough to nominate it).

- Yes, Boseman won the Golden Globe and the SAG. By any metric, that is enough to make him the prohibitive favorite. But there is no overlap between the HFP and the Academy. And Ma Rainey... is clearly a movie that SAG liked more than the Academy. Their endorsement matters but perhaps it's a bit inflated.

- None of these Anonymous Voters are going with Chadwick Boseman. They're all citing Anthony Hopkins or Riz Ahmed. Again, it makes me think about Glenn Close and The Wife. Voters were just generally impressed more with The Favourite (more widely seen) and Olivia Colman. But there's a stronger enjoyment of The Father and Sound of Metal.

- The Gotham Awards and the Indie Spirits both honored Riz Ahmed. Academy voters have generally been skewing more "indie" over the years and these are groups that when given the opportunity to honor Chadwick Boseman not just one last time but once, period, they've gone with their hearts and said "No, let's give it to Riz Ahmed." This is precisely why Glenn Close won: a feeling that others will be voting for Glenn Close so I can vote with my heart.
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Sabin
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

Post by Sabin »

If Chadwick Boseman didn't die, I'm not sure he would win the Oscar this year. But I'm struggling to think of a year where he would be a truly undeserving winner (including this one). I think Anthony Hopkins is better but Chadwick Boseman winning isn't close to being a travesty. For me, Chadwick Boseman would be the best winner in this category in a few years. I want to say since Casey Affleck but I've always found Casey Affleck a hair overrated in Manchester by the Sea. Either way, after a few years of watching actors win Oscars for putting on Joker makeup, fake teeth, and garish Churchill makeup, Boseman is a welcome, adult change of pace.
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mlrg
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

Post by mlrg »

If Boseman wins it will be a victory of sentiment over quality and awards should be based on quality.

Like Tee mentioned, if Boseman hadn’t died Hopkins would deservedly sail through the season.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

Post by HarryGoldfarb »

Mister Tee wrote: But Boseman DID die, and he won SAG (along with the Globe and Broadcasters), and the sentiment is likely to carry him over the finish line. The only question is, do voters see it as a tribute they want to pay, or a duty they're being semi-forced to carry out? Ma Rainey being omitted from best picture and, more notably, screenplay suggest there's a limit to general affection for the film as a whole. So, it might be tighter than it appeared. But, in the end, I think the desire to salute Boseman's passing will hold just enough power to give him the statuette.
And this is a shame. because even if Hopkins manages to pull an upset here, his victory will be forever tarnished by this Boseman situation...
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Categories One-by-One: Lead Actor

Post by Mister Tee »

There are bigger/more-challenging-to-predict categories, but let's quickly get through one of the easier (though not quite as easy as a week ago) slates.

The nominees:

Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal)
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey's Black Bottom)
Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
Gary Oldman (Mank)
Steven Yeun (Minari)

Steven Yeun is lucky: Minari, coming out in this limited environment, became something of the old-time sentimental choice, and carried him onto the actor ballot for a performance where he does very little to stand out. He's a good actor (see: Burning), but I don't see how he'd have any chance here.

I think Gary Oldman is MUCH better in Mank than in his Oscar win, but he wouldn't be winning for this role or this movie even if he wasn't a recent honoree.

Sound of Metal is another film that benefited heavily from the reduced release schedule -- it played at festivals in late 2019 without anyone suggesting it was an awards movie. But here it is on the big stage, with a whole lot of Internet folk pushing it hard. (It's a bit like Short Term 12, only this time it actually got nominated.) Riz Ahmed is an excellent actor (one I highlighted two years ago in the Who'll Be Back bonus round), and I'm glad for him he got this recognition. But I think he's just accumulating points for a possible win down the road.

If Chadwick Boseman hadn't died, Anthony Hopkins could be looking at Oscar number two. It's purely anecdotal, but I find people I know consistently rank The Father among their favorites of this year, and the Hopkins performance is the primary reason. I know enough not to get gulled by those anonymous ballots, but it is striking how many of them seem far more enthusiastic about Hopkins than about Boseman. You link that with the BAFTA win -- which, yeah, could be Brit home-team favoritism, but that's what people said about Olivia Colman -- and you maybe have to think Hopkins has a small chance of pulling the upset. Which I wouldn't have said a week or so ago.

But Boseman DID die, and he won SAG (along with the Globe and Broadcasters), and the sentiment is likely to carry him over the finish line. The only question is, do voters see it as a tribute they want to pay, or a duty they're being semi-forced to carry out? Ma Rainey being omitted from best picture and, more notably, screenplay suggest there's a limit to general affection for the film as a whole. So, it might be tighter than it appeared. But, in the end, I think the desire to salute Boseman's passing will hold just enough power to give him the statuette.
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