Degree of Certainty

[Sabin]

We basically have no way of knowing who is going to win Best Actress.

[Mister Tee]

With BAFTA and DGA in the books, only ACE and ASC remain of the precursors that might affect our choices. Looking over the 20 main categories (leaving out the three shorts slates, which to me are always variable), here's how I see the relative difficulty, put into three rough groups:

Pretty much locked

This doesn't guarantee a win -- as supporters of La La Land or Glenn Close/The Wife can attest -- but I pretty much figure everyone's going to be predicting the same, with confidence, in all these categories:

Leading Actor
Supporting Actor
Director
Cinematography
Production Design
Achievement in Sound
Music Score
Animated Feature

Someone may be ahead, but the race isn't over

Picture
Supporting Actress (had anyone but Youn won today, I'd have bumped this down a notch)
Original Screenplay
Costume Design
Visual Effects
International Film
Documentary Feature

Up in the air

Leading Actress
Adapted Screenplay (today's result pushed this down from the middle category)
Song
Film Editing
Make-up & Hair Styling

I'll (hopefully) explain my thinking on some of these in One-by-One threads this week.