Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

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danfrank
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by danfrank »

I don’t know who’s going to win (either Davis or Mulligan, probably), but here are my personal rankings of the five:

1. Viola Davis
2. Frances McDormand
3. Vanessa Kirby
4. Andra Day
5. Carey Mulligan (I know many on this board are high on this performance, but I had difficulty finding someone who seemed human in this characterization).
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Sabin »

Again, just noticing patterns: the last time the Indie Spirits failed to honor the eventual winner in an acting category was Sean Penn for Milk. Instead they honored Mickey Rourke, which made sense because they were clearly much bigger fans of The Wrestler, giving it Best Film (where Milk was not nominated). Even though Promising Young Woman wasn't up for Best Film, they gave Carey Mulligan Best Actress despite it clearly being Nomadland's night.

This would also point to a Riz Ahmed victory as well.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Okri »

When Vanessa Kirby's two films debuted at Venice, I actually thought The World to Come would stand her in better stead than Pieces of a Woman. Having seen both, I think the former is much better in basically every respect and wouldn't have expected a newcomer to really get far with the latter. That stated, The Crown certainly meant she was already a known quantity. She'll come fifth this year, though.

dws mentions the negligible cultural impact of United States vs Billie Holliday and it's not as if he's wrong. But how do you gauge cultural impact this year? The era of streaming renders so much of movies and television series into just ephemera. I was going through Netflix's offerings to add things to my list and I shit you not, I legit thought I imagined some of them. When the streamers vomit content (and I'm sorry to use that word, but it seems the most accurate) how does anything actually break through? I didn't realize how much I missed the box office as an actual measure of a film's popularity, to be honest. I wonder just how much money Nomadland would make. Would Promising "Young Woman become a surprise success (a la I, Tonya or A Simple Favor) or does it get consigned as a flashily topical think piece generator?

That said, I don't think that impacts Ma Rainey's Black Bottom or Davis as much. I think the Washington's Wilson project will continue to get low level but appreciable acclaim and get a bunch of acting recognition (August Wilson performances have more Tony nominations than Shakespearean ones!*). Heck, I think Davis could easily come back for another Wilson role. I would be surprised if she won again this soon, but I also think she will win again. And given those pangs of doubt we’re starting to feel about Boseman, wouldn’t it just be weird for Davis to triumph.

I was gonna use that same thing against McDormand (won her second quite recently, after all), but when you look at her two victories, one probably shouldn’t underestimate her. Both those victories came in really strong line-ups by any measure. But the very nature of her role almost precludes the type of acting AMPAS responds to. If she’s too actorly, she doesn’t fit in with the tone of the piece. The film itself doesn’t seem enamoured with understanding or giving her those hooks – which is to its credit, but doesn’t go very far with AMPAS. But maybe they go for it in the sense that "well, I could NEVER do that" - like how David Lynch's Cannes jury went for The Pianist.

So why do I think Day over Mulligan et al? Maybe I’m the only one who feels this way, but shouldn’t Mulligan be further ahead in this race? I can imagine a scenario with the same priors yet she just destroys the field. She’s in that sweet spot – young but previously acclaimed, willing to campaign – that often leads to awards. And yet all she has to show for it is a lousy BFCA. Meanwhile, Day – while she’s super new – is doing the type of acting that AMPAS goes nuts for (see last year). Her Globe victory isn't meaningless. The film’s a complete mess, but how much does that really matter?

It's gonna be a nailbiter, that's for sure.

*30 for Wilson, 28* for Shakespeare, though I didn't include stuff like Kiss Me Kate
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by MaxWilder »

You’re right. I think I imagined a Keaton nomination as an apology of sorts for his loss the year before.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Sabin »

MaxWilder wrote
It’s already winning best director and stars an Oscar favorite. A Korean film just won BP and three years before that a whisper-quiet gay coming of age story. Nomadland isn’t that unusual.
I think Nomadland is more unusual than both of them. I think it's more in line with Roma.
MaxWilder wrote
I’m totally unswayed by C7’s SAG ensemble win. If AMPAS really liked it, Sorkin would have made director and SBC wouldn’t be its only acting nominee. Several times this past decade (Chastain and Spencer, Ruffalo and Keaton, Harrelson and Rockwell, Stanfield and Kaluuya) they’ve made room for two nominees.
Keaton wasn't nominated.

That's fine. I am a bit swayed by its ensemble win. I don't think it gets any demerits from only have one acting nomination. I was never taken very seriously for more than one acting nomination outside of chatter on message boards. Not that we're not the best.

C7's lack of a directing nomination isn't great but as we've seen, it's not a deal-breaker. Just look at Argo and Green Book. I think it's just part of Oscar math these days.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by MaxWilder »

Sabin wrote:I don't know if Nomadland is likely to win Best Picture. I think it could happen but it's such an unusual Best Picture winner. I'm coming around to the idea of a Trial of the Chicago 7 upset.
It’s already winning best director and stars an Oscar favorite. A Korean film just won BP and three years before that a whisper-quiet gay coming of age story. Nomadland isn’t that unusual.

I’m totally unswayed by C7’s SAG ensemble win. If AMPAS really liked it, Sorkin would have made director and SBC wouldn’t be its only acting nominee. Several times this past decade (Chastain and Spencer, Ruffalo and Keaton, Harrelson and Rockwell, Stanfield and Kaluuya) they’ve made room for two nominees.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Sabin »

dws1982 wrote
Still hard, looking down the line, to think of a single award that Trial... likely to win. Editing, maybe, but that could go a number of different ways, and Screenplay possibly, but that could go a number of different ways as well. That's my big holdback on it in Best Picture.
It has a shot at Screenplay and Editing. I’ve been agnostic about its Editing chances but it’s picked up awards for it (like the Critic’s Choice). But increasingly, Best Picture winners that take home three wins is becoming a thing. Argo (Screenplay, Editing), 12 Years a Slave (Screenplay, Acting), Moonlight (Screenplay, Acting), Green Book (Screenplay, Acting). Even Spotlight took it home with just a writing award. That’s half the Best Picture winners of the last decade.

As for Day, sure. You could be right.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by dws1982 »

Sabin wrote:
MaxWilder wrote
McDormand just won her 2nd and she’s likely to get a best picture Oscar this year. Are they really ready to make her mantle more impressive than Meryl Streep’s, Oscar-wise?
I don't know if Nomadland is likely to win Best Picture. I think it could happen but it's such an unusual Best Picture winner. I'm coming around to the idea of a Trial of the Chicago 7 upset.
Still hard, looking down the line, to think of a single award that Trial... likely to win. Editing, maybe, but that could go a number of different ways, and Screenplay possibly, but that could go a number of different ways as well. That's my big holdback on it in Best Picture.

My big holdback on Andra Day in Actress, aside from the SAG snub, is that her movie may as well not exist. It had less cultural impact than Netflix's Christian musical A Week Away, which had zero cultural impact other than that I saw a few people tweet about it for a couple of days.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Sabin »

MaxWilder wrote
McDormand just won her 2nd and she’s likely to get a best picture Oscar this year. Are they really ready to make her mantle more impressive than Meryl Streep’s, Oscar-wise?
I don't know if Nomadland is likely to win Best Picture. I think it could happen but it's such an unusual Best Picture winner. I'm coming around to the idea of a Trial of the Chicago 7 upset.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by MaxWilder »

Mulligan and Davis are the only two winners that make sense, so Mulligan is still alive.

McDormand just won her 2nd and she’s likely to get a best picture Oscar this year. Are they really ready to make her mantle more impressive than Meryl Streep’s, Oscar-wise?

Kirby (love her, ftr) could win ^the BAFTA, but let’s be honest: that would just mean she beat McDormand. She’s not up against most of her Oscar competition.

“Academy Award-winner Andra Day” is just too bizarre.

At this point I’d say Davis has the edge, but not an insurmountable one.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Sabin »

FilmFan720 wrote
Despite not knowing who will win here, I do have to add that this is one of the best lineups of this category in my lifetime. Even if only 3 of these would make my personal ballot, I wouldn't mind any of them winning and they would all be deserving.
I didn't initially share your enthusiasm but then I looked back and a lot of my favorite years have one or two weak links. 2018 is strong, save for Lady Gaga. 2017 is very strong, save for Meryl Streep. 2015 is very strong, save for Jennifer Lawrence. There really isn't a weak link in this lineup to speak of. They're all very good. Similarly, I don't have a strong preference of who should win like I did in all those years I just mentioned.

Probably the strongest lineup since... 2010?
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mlrg
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by mlrg »

A pretty interesting line up, even if it's populated by performances in films that are either dreadful in almost every aspect (Ma Raynies...) or simply badly directed (The US vs Billie Holiday). None of them would shock me as a winner.

Frankly I can't remember a set of nominees in this category where you could make a case for any of them to win. Probably Kirby is the weakest link at this stage but if she wins the Bafta then it would become a real headscratcher, something that is quite interesting after years and years of winners almost set in stone before oscar night.

As of today I would say that Andra Day will prevail in the end.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by Big Magilla »

I still think this is Carey Mulligan's to lose.

I I had misgivings about her after the story broke about her making a mountain out of a mole hill with the Variety reviewer criticizing one of her pickup scenes six months after he wrote it, claiming he said she wasn't "hot enough"(he didn't) which resulted in Variety putting a disclaimer on the archived review. It made her come across as entitled, which I thought would hurt her with voters, which might have been the case with SAG voters but she's pretty much weathered the storm by keeping her mouth shut since. Having lost the Golden Globe and SAG, with no chance of winning the BAFTA, she might even be considered an underdog at this point, which can only help her.

If not Mulligan, then who? 36-year-old singer-turned-actress Andra Day is excellent as Billie Holiday, but the film is not very good. Frances McDormand is a two-time winner, her most recent win coming just three years ago. Vanessa Kirby gave a good performance in a film that everyone seems to like but no one seems to love, which suggests that most will want to see what she does next time. That leaves Viola Davis, another recent winner although her win four years ago was in support for a role that many considered a lead whereas her nomination this year is for a role some see as supporting. For them, this could be an intriguing opportunity to even things out.

In order of probability:

Mulligan
Davis
Day
McDormand
Kirby
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by FilmFan720 »

Despite not knowing who will win here, I do have to add that this is one of the best lineups of this category in my lifetime. Even if only 3 of these would make my personal ballot, I wouldn't mind any of them winning and they would all be deserving.
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Categories One-by-One: Lead Actress

Post by anonymous1980 »

The nominees:
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States v. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman

I was gonna put this off until later in the month but seeing as SAG has officially thrown this category in a tizzy, I thought I'd post it now so we can debate this for longer. Never in all my years of following the Oscars have I seen an acting category this contentious. In all the other years, if you didn't have a clear front-runner, you can usually narrow it down to two people. Here we the first three major precursor awards give it to three different people: Day won the Globe, Mulligan won the Critics Choice, Davis won the SAG. None of them were nominated at the BAFTA's. The other two nominees, Kirby and McDormand were, and if the BAFTA's go for one of them, 4 out of the 5 nominees have one major precursor going into Oscar night.

The only nominee here I would be most surprised to see win is Vanessa Kirby. There's a lot of respect but not a lot of passion for her performance. Even though The United States v. Billie Holiday got worse reviews, people seem to be a lot more passionate about Andra Day and she did win the Globe. Viola Davis and Frances McDormand are hampered by the fact that they're both relatively recent winners. Davis's film was snubbed for Best Picture and some people are grumbling it's really a supporting performance. Carey Mulligan, on paper, SHOULD be running away with this: Her film was embraced across the board including Best Picture. She is a previous nominee at an age where the Academy most like to reward their actresses. She's also giving a stellar performance as well. I'm *still* leaning towards her but I wouldn't be surprised if she lost either.

I think there will be some genuine suspense all the way up to the opening envelope for this category. This could decide our Oscar prediction contest!
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