The technical categories that tend to be dominated by big budget films will be limited in prospects, but the top ten categories - picture, acting, directing, writing, cinematography and editing won't be. When was the last time more than twenty films competed in those categories? Last year there was a total of 18 films nominated in those categories.Mister Tee wrote:The idea that we're going to have Oscars this year strikes me as people holding desperately to something they know in their heart of hearts won't happen. Very few films will think it's their best move to go straight to VOD; that will financially limit grosses for both large and small films. The competitive pool will be a tiny fraction of a normal year. Who wants an Oscar race that's based on 20 or so films, many of them from Netflix? Who would feel proud to have won in such a reduced field?
And then there's Magilla's point: until the COVID-all-clear is sounded -- something that won't even be a prospect till January (god willing) brings us a change in leadership -- production is severely limited, meaning, if most things currently on the shelf are already out there streaming, there'll be no films to fill theatres once we are out of this nightmare.
The sensible thing is to just write off this annus horribilis, wait till something like normality returns, and allow all 2020/2021 films to compete in a combined race on the 2021 calendar.
If next year is as bleak as this year in terms of production, which it may well be, the same 20 films being released in the last quarter of this year (mostly through streaming) and early next year plus West Side Story and one or two other postponed releases will be it. The question remains what will 2021 look like and will there be enough product available for a real competition or will 2021 have to be combined with 2022? That makes more sense to me than combining 2020 and 2021 as far as recognition goes. If the more important goal is to put on a show with everyone in the same place, then by all means go ahead and wait.