Categories One-by-One: Original Screenplay

[anonymous1980]

• Pedro in 2002 faced off against a shlocky money-maker (that Greek wedding); two films (Gangs of New York and Far from Heaven) that were prominent in nominations but never seemed popular (Heaven missed a seemingly-sure Dennis Quaid nomination, and Gangs of course came a full cropper on Oscar night); and another foreign-language effort (Y Tu Mama). Talk to Her didn’t get the obligatory acting nomination, but Pedro had the directing nod to carry him to the win.

I would also like to point out that controversially, Talk to Her was NOT selected by Spain for the Foreign Language Film category that year despite being the most acclaimed non-English language film. Pedro's nominations for Screenplay and Director were at least partially in response to that and the Screenplay win was a way to acknowledge the film as a whole since it's not in the running for Foreign Language Film.

I guess. There are just enough recent best picture winners to win without screenplay (The Shape of Water the year before, even) that I was closer to predicting Green Book for best picture than I was for best original screenplay.

The Shape of Water won Director though. Green Book wasn't even nominated for Director. It's been a while since a Best Picture winner won without also winning either Director or Screenplay (Chicago was the last one, I think but Rob Marshall won the DGA at least).

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
I guess. There are just enough recent best picture winners to win without screenplay (The Shape of Water the year before, even) that I was closer to predicting Green Book for best picture than I was for best original screenplay.

Right but The Shape of Water was seen as more of a writer/director's vision so honoring Guillermo Del Toro as a director accomplishes that. Nobody really thought of Green Book as the the product of a specific voice. More a specific story.

Besides, The Shape of Water had to contend in one of the most crowded writing fields of my life. Green Book did not.

[Okri]

I guess. There are just enough recent best picture winners to win without screenplay (The Shape of Water the year before, even) that I was closer to predicting Green Book for best picture than I was for best original screenplay.

[Sabin]

Okri wrote
Sabin, why was hindsight so clear on Green Book for you? Because that's a win I still don't get.

Because it won Best Picture.

And because the story of it is so integral to why it won Best Picture. It moved them. They clearly weren't as moved by The Favourite or rather they didn't get why it was such a great script.

[Okri]

I think Knives Out coulda competed in a less stacked category. I wish 1917 was better.

Sabin, why was hindsight so clear on Green Book for you? Because that's a win I still don't get.

I think the Tarantino's gonna win it. I love Parasite and think it's such fiendishly great storytelling (the first act is just perfectly constructed), but I think the scope of the Tarantino, along with the subject matter, will swing the voters to it. Marriage Story is a darkhorse, but I too am puzzled at it's fade out.

[Sabin]

This Oscar season is giving me whiplash. It's increasingly difficult to square away my one month-ago thoughts from my wishful thinking.

Popular thinking is that Once Upon a Time in Hollywood has fizzled. But has it? Sure, it lost the ACE to Jojo Rabbit. All that means is that editors liked Jojo Rabbit more (also Parasite to be fair).

Here's my question: would anyone think Parasite is the favorite for Best Original Screenplay had it not just won the BAFTA? How much weight does that carry?

Let's rewind to last year when I foolishly predicted The Favourite would win Best Original Screenplay over Green Book. Why did I do that? Well, Eighth Grade somehow eeked out a WGA victory over Green Book (where The Favourite was not in competition) so I said "Okay, they clearly don't love Green Book." Then I saw that the BAFTAs gave The Favourite Best Original Screenplay over Green Book. Discounting the Brit factor, I just assumed 1+1=2 so I predicted The Favourite for Best Original Screenplay but hindsight is clear as day that Green Book was going to win, right?

BAFTA does not always line up with the Academy in this category. When Oscar is feeling hip (Get Out, Birdman, Her), they're feeling a different sort of hip (Three Billboards..., The Grand Budapest Hotel, American Hustle). Sometimes they line up, sometimes they don't.

I'm left with two questions: what do they think of Parasite and what precedent is more likely?

1) We know what they think of Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. They like it. We know that much. And it's a Tarantino movie that appeals to older voters and there's a lot of old people in the Academy. But what do they think of Parasite, or more accurately how many think the movie is weird? I literally have no idea. It could be a lot. It could be a few.

2) For precedent, what is likelier? The foreign-language film breaking through in Screenplay AND International Film? Or voters write down Parasite in International and give Screenplay to the Superstar Writer?

I know the analogy isn't perfect but we had a similar situation back in 2012 where it was down to The Foreign Film, The Superstar Writer, and a sort of faded Best Picture contender (Zero Dark Thirty; the analogy doesn't quite match up). They gave it to Tarantino. Parasite is clearly more beloved than Amour but I think Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is a little more beloved than Django.

This raises another question: are they REALLY going to give Tarantino another Oscar?

Sure. Why not? It's not like anyone marking these ballots thinks "Yeah, but does Tarantino really belong in the same class as Woody Allen or Billy Wilder?" And even if they did, I think they'd think "Yeah, he does." And it's not like they know who Bong Joon-Ho is.

But I keep coming back to something else: if I'm an old Oscar voter, which movie do I like more? I think I like Once Upon a Time in Hollywood more. Heck, I've already marked down 1917 enough for one day.

[Mister Tee]

The nominees:

Knives Out (Rian Johnson)
Marriage Story (Noah Baumbach)
1917 (Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Once Upon A Time…in Hollywood (Quentin Tarantino)
Parasite (Bong Joon Ho & Han Jin Won)

This should have been a much more entertaining race. Knives Out was always just a “thanks for being such a surprise hit” nod, with no chance, and, while 1917’s nomination is a sign of overall strength (comparable to Gladiator’s showing up in the category in 2000), no one would ever have expected it to contend for the win.

But the other three all seem the sort of films that have won this category – to make crude analogies, Marriage Story could be Manchester by the Sea or Sideways; Parasite could be Get Out or her; Hollywood could be any other of Quentin’s wins.

Marriage Story choked first. I don’t know if the Netflix factor hurt the film, or if people just don’t like it, but a film that seemed in contention for screenplay, three acting awards and (thinking back to December) possibly best picture, is now being hustled off the stage -- like Boyhood – with just a token supporting award for a long-time Hollywood denizen.

Once Upon a Time…in Hollywood was a more surprising fizzle. Not long ago, lots of people were promoting it as the best picture likelihood – the Broadcasters sure thought so, and they, as we know, don’t back long shots. Everything seemed to be falling into place for the film, literally until the moment it turned up missing on the list of editing nominees. From there, it’s been multiple indignities: losing screenplay and production design at BAFTA, falling to Jojo Rabbit at ACE – to the point I think it’s now seen, like Little Women, as a movie that seemed headed to a screenplay win until it was suddenly blindsided by the WGA/BAFTA tandem.

One caveat: Hollywood did win the Golden Globe for screenplay, and, while that’s not matched the Oscars with perfect accuracy, it has foretold some AMPAS wins of which people were dubious: Green Book last year, Birdman in ’14, and Quentin’s last win in ’12. So, maybe don’t start shoveling dirt quite yet.

But the favorite is clearly Parasite, which’ll be one of the few prospective awards about which I’d be genuinely enthusiastic. I think it’s worth stopping to think just how remarkable it is that Parasite finds itself in this position. First of all, Korean films have never done anything in Oscar terms prior to now; for the film to be playing in the upper echelon races is amazing. And for it to actually WIN screenplay…I understand that three foreign-language films have won original screenplay before, but, in those cases, it was because the other choices were from hunger:

• In 1962, Divorce-Italian Style’s competition was two foreign-language efforts way further out on the art scale (Marienbad and Through a Glass Darkly); what we’d maybe label failed Oscar bait by a previous winner (Freud – though I like the movie, it wasn’t highly rated in its day); and a frothy Doris Day comedy at a point people were getting weary of the cycle. In that context, a writer who’d also been cited for directing – and had his male star best actor-nominated – seems an obvious choice.

• Much the same in 1966. Lelouch’s competitors were two films (The Naked Prey and Khartoum) from genres that rarely scored screenplay nods even when the movies were better; perhaps Billy Wilder’s weakest nomination; and an in-English-but-foreign-and-arty-as-hell Blow Up. Lelouch, like Germi, had a directing nomination and a lead performer contending in acting, and his film was a big art-house hit. Again, a slam dunk.

• Pedro in 2002 faced off against a shlocky money-maker (that Greek wedding); two films (Gangs of New York and Far from Heaven) that were prominent in nominations but never seemed popular (Heaven missed a seemingly-sure Dennis Quaid nomination, and Gangs of course came a full cropper on Oscar night); and another foreign-language effort (Y Tu Mama). Talk to Her didn’t get the obligatory acting nomination, but Pedro had the directing nod to carry him to the win.

Parasite is different from those cases. As noted at the top, it’s set to triumph over heavyweights. And it’s, however shakily, alive in the best picture race. This makes it among the strongest foreign-language contenders we’ve yet seen (the two that played as hard in best picture terms – Crouching Tiger and Roma – never got a moment’s consideration for a screenplay win). Assuming it wins, its victory will be something to see.