Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

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MaxWilder
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by MaxWilder »

Okri wrote:a) Jojo Rabbit is the lowest grossing, non-Netflix best picture nominee. Calling it populist is designed to minimize it's mixed reviews, in my mind.
Has it even made enough to qualify as "populist"? $28M after 16 weeks is not impressive. It's one of the lowest grossing TIFF People's Choice winners in years. Bombshell is seen as a commercial disappointment and it's outgrossed JR in half the time. Historic bomb Cats has made $27 million.

And yet Jojo Rabbit, with mixed reviews and mediocre box office, will probably win adapted screenplay over Little Women, which earned critical raves and will be crossing the $100 million mark today or tomorrow.

Sigh.
Sabin
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Sabin »

I hadn't heard the Kathy Bates story before today. It certainly didn't catch fire. I think it's being talked about here more than any place else right now. Working far more against Laura Dern is the fact that she's the only sole nominee of the bunch and the movie is Richard Jewell.

Irvin is right that Jennifer Lopez's omission helped Dern more than anything. In hindsight, Jennifer Lopez was never really going to be much of a threat to Laura Dern. Hustlers has too much perception bias (too commercial? not serious? everything that Marriage Story isn't) and Laura Dern has too much of a hometown advantage with deep Hollywood roots, two previous nominations, and coming off of a career-reinventing hot streak. Hustlers *was* Lopez's career reinvention. Even if Lopez was never going to win, a nomination would have felt meaningful and her absence just makes the field seem less interesting.

If not Dern, who?

Not Bates.

I keep reading about Scarlett Johansson as the runner up. When was the last time an actress earned her first nomination as well as dual nominations at the same time. Jessica Lange. Why isn't this news? It should be. I think Scarlett Johansson being "due" for an Oscar isn't something that terribly many people are thinking about. I'm not sure voters know that she hasn't been nominated before. I'm not sure if Johansson deserves to win for Jojo Rabbit but her larger-than-life presence and skills as a comedienne who thrives in unbelievable situations are put on very good display here. This is the kind of performance that Johansson should be nominated for yet in all likelihood would not be. Except she is. I don't think she's the runner up. I think she might be fourth.

How can Florence Pugh be a runner up when she hasn't been nominated for a Golden Globe or a SAG? She has a lovely, showy role in a Best Picture nominee as well as several recent roles to her credit, positioning her as a Alicia Vikander, although this category doesn't favor ingenues like it used to. Working against her is the fact that I think the standout performance in Little Women might be Greta Gerwig and how all these actors fit into her vision. To appreciate Pugh's performance is to understand what she brings in contrast to previous Beth's. I don't see Oscar voters fully appreciating that.

I'm inclined to say Margot Robbie might be the closest thing to a runner up in Bombshell, though not for the right reasons. She's not an ingenue. She's a big new franchise star who's made a lot of people a lot of money. She's a recent nominee. She makes very interest career decisions and she's been very widely seen this year. Magilla writes that Robbie plays "a weak character in a weak film." But this is a film about the #MeToo movement, so she is playing the audience's key to understanding these situations. And so by doing it, she's playing a composite character who's deliberately a bit unreal. I think the problem with her performance is that it's hard to know if it's a success or not because her film is so all over the place. In the few years that we've known Margot Robbie, it's pretty clear that she thrives (not unlike Johansson) in films that are a little stylized and heightened. She was born to play a comic book character. If Bombshell was a little more wild, I think she might pose a bigger threat. If I, Tonya was released this year, I bet she'd be running away with it. I think Margot Robbie is very close to winning an Oscar. It's just not her year.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Big Magilla »

Reza wrote:
dws1982 wrote:Bates won't win, obviously: The controversy surrounding the film won't help, the box-office flame-out of the film won't help, and I guess some of the comments she's made about #MeToo probably won't help her case either.
I don't understand why her comments about #MeToo should factor into her not getting nominated. From what I've read all she said was that in her day going to a director's hotel room (instead of an office) meant only one thing and whatever transpired there was consensual. The idea behind her comment being that people in show business were well aware of the casting couch phenomena.

Is there something I'm missing in her comment which deems it controversial?
I think where she's coming from is that only a moron wouldn't know what to expect given the long history of the casting couch. What's she missing is that most of these women were established actresses who may have thought they were past their days of being chased around the room or that the men inviting them were beyond approach or that if they were propositioned they would be able to ease their way out of the situation. I don't think that every woman who went to these guys' rooms went knowing it involved sex.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Big Magilla »

When was the last time the majority of AMPAS members went to theatres to see all the nominees? Not since they started receiving streamers. It's not something they factor into any of the races. It won't hurt Jojo Rabbit in adapted screenplay and it won't be the reason Bates and Johansson lose to Dern.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by taki15 »

Mister Tee wrote: I'm higher on Margot Robbie's performance than Magilla is -- she's got a couple of scenes that are well within standard nomination range -- but my personal jury is still out on whether she's a truly good actress or just a competent enough one whose beautiful blonde-ness is giving her chances few others would receive.
Margot Robbie not only came out unscathed from the "Suicide Squad" debacle but she managed to turn an obscure character like Harley Quinn into something of a pop culture phenomenon. I think that counts for something, and I say that as someone who is anything but a Robbie fanboy.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Okri »

I was tempted to do a single category one-by-one for all of acting given how boring the races have become. But yeah

a) Jojo Rabbit is the lowest grossing, non-Netflix best picture nominee. Calling it populist is designed to minimize it's mixed reviews, in my mind.

b) I wonder if preferential balloting would affect the acting races. It really has seemed to do wonders for best picture. It probably wouldn't as much given the lower number of nominees, but I would be curious as well.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by dws1982 »

I don't think her comment is that bad (although I do think the question of consent in those situations can be somewhat unclear), but I don't think it'll exactly win her a bunch of votes.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Reza »

dws1982 wrote:Bates won't win, obviously: The controversy surrounding the film won't help, the box-office flame-out of the film won't help, and I guess some of the comments she's made about #MeToo probably won't help her case either.
I don't understand why her comments about #MeToo should factor into her not getting nominated. From what I've read all she said was that in her day going to a director's hotel room (instead of an office) meant only one thing and whatever transpired there was consensual. The idea behind her comment being that people in show business were well aware of the casting couch phenomena.

Is there something I'm missing in her comment which deems it controversial?
Last edited by Reza on Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Mister Tee »

This is my annual chance to rail at the bloggers and those TV awards, who've managed, as they almost always do, to drain the juice out of a race that shouldn't have been 100% cut-and-dried. Not to say Laura Dern wouldn't have ended up winning anyway -- it's an attention-getting part, she's a three-time nominee with industry bloodlines -- but Pugh and Johansson should at least have been entering the ceremony with a flicker of hope. These days, though, what should be moderate favorites go into Oscar night overwhelming locks, thanks to the Oscar-industrial complex -- and, as dws rightly points out, once the people responsible have set this unbreakable agenda, they bitch about how boring it is.

Curses to the actors' branch for omitting JLo, who would have enlivened the race and, honestly, gave a more impactful performance than some on the slate.

Unless Richard Jewell turns up on pay-per-view over the next few days, Kathy Bates will be the first acting nominee I haven't seen prior to the Oscars in I don't know how long (maybe Jessica Lange/Blue Sky, which didn't open commercially in NY till after the ceremony). The film was simply gone from NY theatres by the time of nominations, which speaks to what an absolute box-office dud it was. Bates would have been an extreme long shot anyway, but this sealed her fate.

I'm higher on Margot Robbie's performance than Magilla is -- she's got a couple of scenes that are well within standard nomination range -- but my personal jury is still out on whether she's a truly good actress or just a competent enough one whose beautiful blonde-ness is giving her chances few others would receive.

When I saw Jojo Rabbit back in October, I thought Johansson was as good as I'd ever seen her. But her Marriage Story work blew it away. If she's to upset, at BAFTA or here, it'll be on a "what a year she's had" basis, not because this particular performance is so good.

Parenthetically, to echo dws: People keep talking about Jojo Rabbit as some kind of populist wonder, but aren't populist movies supposed to make a ton of money? Jojo has not only barely matched Richard Jewell and Bombshell, it's made less than Parasite, a movie with the extreme handicap of being Korean with subtitles. (I couldn't even tell you what the next highest grossing Korean film is, but I doubt it's hit eight figures.) But, once again, as I did when I first noticed the film, I analogize Jojo to The Shawshank Redemption. That, too, had massive pre-buzz, ended up with middling reviews (Jojo's were actually worse), did only moderate business, but did extemely well with Guilds and in Oscar nominations. Shawshank ended up winning zero Oscars, but then went on to IMDB glory and a long home-viewing shelf-life -- so it was populist, in the end, despite never making that much money. We'll see if Jojo continues on the same trajectory.

I'm tempted to suggest Florence Pugh has a decent chance of winning BAFTA, being a British citizen, and extremely hot right now, both personally and because of her massively successful film (the only true smash hit of these five). If it happens, I want credit for calling it first.

But, apart from the occasional Olivia Colman, BAFTA doesn't really Brit-up their choices these days -- really not since the Rush/Bonham Carter tandem of 2010 (they even passed on Richard E. Grant last year, who should have been a slam dunk). A dirty semi-secret: BAFTA has expanded its rolls in recent years to include a lot of non-Brits. A friend of mine is both an Academy and BAFTA voter, and he's a Jewish guy from NJ. In case you're wondering why they're not so out-of-the-Hollywood-loop as they once were.

So, Laura Dern it likely will be, ensuring a dull evening next Sunday. Another promising season anesthetized by the hive mind.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Sun Feb 02, 2020 2:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by Big Magilla »

Margot Robbie is the weakest nominee. She's playing a weak character in a weak film. She also played a weak, if real, character in Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood for which there was speculation she would be nominated until Bombshell came along.

Florence Pugh is this year's hot new star, but her nomination for playing Amy in Little Women will likely be seen as reward enough.

Scarlett Johansson was in Pugh's position in 2003 when she gave award-worthy performances in both Lost in Translation and Girl with a Pearl Earring with not enough votes for either to break through to a nomination. She's making up for that now with a double nomination but double nominations haven't guaranteed a win in the supporting category since Jessica Lange, who was the favorite to win for Tootsie in 1982. She's more likely to pull an upset in lead where her performance in Marriage Story has gotten much more acclaim. Even if she wins the BAFTA for Jojo Rabbit tonight, that's no guarantee that Oscar will follow suit.

Kathy Bates is beloved by the Academy. She is a former AMPAS governor of the actor's branch, a role she first took on when Roddy McDowall died, a role subsequently filled by Laura Dern. She's playing a very sympathetic character in Richard Jewell but she is in a film steeped in controversy for its portrayal of two of Trump's favorite targets - the FBI and the media. That shouldn't reflect on her performance but sadly it does.

Laura Dern was not only the AMPAS governor of the actor's branch, she came within a handful of being elected president a few years ago. She's a second generation star whose celebrated actor parents never won an Oscar, which always helps, as it did Jane Fonda, Liza Minnelli and Mira Sorvino. She's won every precursor that counts. If she loses the Oscar for Marriage Story it will the biggest shock in this category since Lauren Bacall lost to Juliette Binoche nearly a quarter century ago.
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by anonymous1980 »

I would also like to add that Laura Dern's chances were further boosted by the fact that the person seen as her biggest competition, Jennifer Lopez, was left off the list.
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Categories One-by-One: Supporting Actress

Post by dws1982 »

Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

Probably not a ton to discuss here, but it's worth doing a quick dive, and I finally finished this category yesterday.

Bates won't win, obviously: The controversy surrounding the film won't help, the box-office flame-out of the film won't help, and I guess some of the comments she's made about #MeToo probably won't help her case either. I'm glad she got the nomination, but this isn't her second Oscar. Robbie has gotten all of the nominations she needed in the lead-up, but she hasn't really won anything, her movie hasn't really caught on with the public (it's outgrossed Richard Jewell but not by a lot), and I don't think the movie really serves her well. I think she'll be back probably with a better shot to win in the years just ahead. It's interesting that Florence Pugh was a pretty widely-predicted nominee despite missing at the Globes and SAG. I'm not sure if that speaks more to Pugh or the strength of Little Women (probably a combination of both), and while she's not going to win, I think this is, as with Robbie, a resume' booster for a better shot down the line.

I'm intentionally posting this before BAFTA because I see some on Twitter predicting Johansson to win based on, I guess, her double nomination, and the fact that they think Jojo Rabbit is surging in the Oscar race right now. Maybe it is, but this movie never caught on with audiences the way it should have: This movie barely outgrossed Richard Jewell and has made less than Bombshell. And it's not for lack of trying on Fox Searchlight's part. This movie came to town in November, I skipped it; It returned in December, I skipped it again; It returned again, and when I saw it yesterday there was exactly one other person in the theater. Maybe it's going to surprise with a few Oscar wins next week, but I just don't think it's all that loved. Now as for Johansson: Yes, the double nomination probably gets her some votes. But she doesn't really have anything to do in Jojo Rabbit. It's a smallish performance and she doesn't make a huge impression. I really think the move I've seen towards Johansson is based on a desire to inject some suspense into a race that feels like it's been over since December. (To which I say: All of the people on Oscar Twitter and all of the Oscar blogs are the ones who seem to want the races to be settled as early as possible, so why are they now trying to act like Johansson is about to come in for the upset? Those guys were the ones who were posting things like "LAURA. DERN. That's it. That's the tweet." back in November.)

I still think this is Dern's to lose. We've looked for vulnerability along the way and she hasn't shown any. She's won almost everywhere, and almost everywhere she didn't win, she lost to Jennifer Lopez, who isn't even nominated. Yes, I think it will be a little odd, when we look back on 2019, that Marriage Story won for Dern and nothing else (it would make much more sense if it only won Best Actor or Actress or Screenplay), but I don't see any reason to expect she'll come up short.
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