Three Scenarios for Best Actress

[criddic3]

And Scarlett Johansson won't shut the fuck about how much she loves and believes Woody Allen - she isn't doing herself any favours. No comment almost always wins out in the end. Whilst in my personal 'best of the year' choices I don't care about anything outside of the 'work' in play but if I was an Academy member I wouldn't vote for her on principal even if I felt she gave the best performance which does look like hers probably will be of the nominated leading ladies.

I wouldn't necessarily count on this. The Academy has nominated Woody Allen dozens of times over the years, and awarded him fairly recently. Many members probably share Johannson's view of him, both male and female. I'm not certain defending him really hurts her chances.

[Sabin]

danfrank wrote
Count me as another Mary Kay Place fan from way back. She’s terrific in everything she does. An Oscar nomination would be a great career tribute, but I will be very surprised if that comes to fruition, especially in a film as small as Diane.

For me, Best Actress is one of the year's most interesting races because of what seems like a remarkable enthusiasm gap when it comes to all of the performances, or rather the films AND the performances:

- Cynthia Ervio has been successfully transitioning from TV and Theater to U.S. films and her title role as Harriet Tubman seems like a no-brainer... except it's not loved (73% on RT, which strikes me as *politely* high). It's possibly a sole nominee (Song?). She's largely unknown here.

- Scarlett Johansson could be on the verge of her first nomination or two... or zero. She's made several politically incorrect statements (about Woody Allen and the trans community) and seems incapable of self-correcting. Also, her performances aren't revelatory so much as trade on her persona.

- Saoirse Ronan might get her fourth nomination by 25 years old, which I think would make her the youngest to reach that level of accolades. But she didn't get a SAG nomination (perhaps not enough seen? Bafta will correct). Another hurdle: is Jo that much different from her other performances?

- Charlize Theron is apparently incredible in a big film that is not loved (60% on RT) and is quite complicated. Regardless of what she went through, who desperately wants to feel bad for Megyn Kelly? From her Oscar win in 2003, she's been a consistently daring performer.

- Renee Zellweger is apparently incredible in a small film that is not loved, nor seems remotely about the times we live in, and seems likely to be a sole nominee (Makeup?). She's a previous winner we've barely seen in fifteen years.


So, to wrap up: Two films (Harriet, Judy) are small and not beloved. Two films (Little Women, Marriage Story) are more loved but the performances might not be fresh. One film (Bombshell) is somewhere in between, but features a problematic lead character. And one film (Marriage Story) features a problematic lead actress.

This would *seem* like a race ripe for an upset.

Us might not be a beloved film but it has a 93% on RT. It's a massive hit. She has a NYFCC award and a SAG nomination. It's a horror film but it's a Jordan Peele horror film so it must be taken more seriously. Lupita Nyong'o is a previous Oscar-winner giving a tour de force in a dual role. It might be love it or hate it but if only the loves vote, that might be enough.

[Reza]

I've seen her in lots of things. She's usually underutilized. The Big Chill was a rare exception.

She was the best of them all in The Big Chill and should have been the one getting the Oscar nod.

[danfrank]

Count me as another Mary Kay Place fan from way back. She’s terrific in everything she does. An Oscar nomination would be a great career tribute, but I will be very surprised if that comes to fruition, especially in a film as small as Diane.

[Big Magilla]

I've seen her in lots of things. She's usually underutilized. The Big Chill was a rare exception.

[Precious Doll]

I barely remember Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman.
My strongest memory of Mary Kay Place is from The Big Chill in which I thought she gave the film's best performance, although it was Glenn Close who got the Oscar nomination. It would be quite something if Place after all these years were to be nominated and win while Close is still chasing her first Oscar. There's probably zero chance of that happening, but it would be sweet.

Have you ever seen Citizen Ruth (1996) starring Laura Dern in the first film directed by Alexander Payne Magilla?

If you haven't you should. Mary Kay Place has a supporting role it in and she (along Kurtwood Smith who plays her husband) almost still the film from an excellent Laura Dern.

Manny & Lo (1996) a rare starring role for Place is also worth tracking down.

[Sabin]

Precious Doll wrote
And Scarlett Johansson won't shut the fuck about how much she loves and believes Woody Allen - she isn't doing herself any favours.

I agree. She's also been outspoken about her disappointment that her project "Rub and Tug" has fallen by the wayside. Had she just let her publicist field her comments, I think she'd be in the running but she's been quite outspoken to her detriment. As it is, I'm not even sure she's getting a nomination.

As for Ronan, you might be right but I don't feel confident in Little Women this week. Let me know when it opens. I could certainly see it turning into a Christmas hit. If that is the case, Ronan could rebound.

I've been looking at this race as 2003's Best Actress vs. Best Supporting Actress: Theron vs. Zellweger. We have yet to see how Bombshell performs at the box office but Theron has Globe and SAG nominations, she hasn't won for an equal amount of time, and unlike Zellweger she's been fairly present for the past decade and a half in interesting, challenging roles. Working against her is one big issue: I don't know anyone who wants to subject themselves to anything that makes Megan "Jesus is White" Kelly look like any sort of a victim. I know I don't.

I haven't seen Judy but I think Renee Zellweger probably has this.

[Big Magilla]

I barely remember Mary Hartman, Mary Hartman. I do remember Louise Lasser in the title role and Martin Mull being in it, but have no memory of Mary Kay Place even though she won an Emmy for it. It's probably something I watched a couple of times, but not faithfully.

My strongest memory of Mary Kay Place is from The Big Chill in which I thought she gave the film's best performance, although it was Glenn Close who got the Oscar nomination. It would be quite something if Place after all these years were to be nominated and win while Close is still chasing her first Oscar. There's probably zero chance of that happening, but it would be sweet.

I think Zellweger is the likely winner here, with Johansson her strongest competition for the reasons Tee has stated. I'm still seeing Erivo, Theron and Ronan as the other nominees, but I think they're all vulnerable.

[Precious Doll]

As I say, I view Zellweger as the most likely winner, but the TV awards have the potential to change that if they make more individual choices.

I think you on the money Mister Tee.

I'll just add that Little Women seems dead but box office could turn around Saoirse Ronan prospects. And Scarlett Johansson won't shut the fuck about how much she loves and believes Woody Allen - she isn't doing herself any favours. No comment almost always wins out in the end. Whilst in my personal 'best of the year' choices I don't care about anything outside of the 'work' in play but if I was an Academy member I wouldn't vote for her on principal even if I felt she gave the best performance which does look like hers probably will be of the nominated leading ladies.

[Mister Tee]

It was already fairly clear this year's best actress category wasn't going to generate an anointed winner -- a Mirren/The Queen, Blanchett/Blue Jasmine, who sweeps all others aside -- but NY and LA going with Lupita Nyong'o and Mary Kay Place made that oficial. Nyong'o has now become something of a critical cause celebre, and may be able to score the nomination, but I can't imagine her winning...and Place, a long-time favorite of mine, has no hope of making it to the big show. So, it now becomes a game of deciding who, of the plausible candidates, has the best chance of being the one left alive when the envelope gets opened. I see three potential scenarios -- three paths that could lead to the winner circle.

First Scenario: It's Her Turn

This narrative is Saoirse Ronan's prime hope -- and, before you say anything, I acknowledge it's taken some big hits this past week or so, with the cavalier treatment Little Women has received from critics' groups and Guilds, culminating in Ronan's omission at SAG. I'm holding out small hope that these slights have something to do with the film's late screening, and that, once the film opens and audiences start responding (which all critical response suggests they will), the tide could turn in Ronan's favor. Because, certainly, no one is better positioned by career points to take over the race. Guy Lodge suggested she was a prime win candidate last time out, for Lady Bird, and her stature has only improved since. If Little Women is embraced by audiences, sentiment that Ronan's four nominations ought to pay off at last could become widespread.

Second Scenario: She's Having a Hell of a Year

Scarlett Johansson is only 35, yet she's been around for what seems forever. I first saw her in Manny and Lo, 23 years ago (where she was mothered by Mary Kay Place). Even her first Oscar-contending -- for the double-whammy of Lost in Translation/Girl with a Pearl Earring -- is now 16 years in the past. She's been steadily visible throughout those years, making herself part of the endlessly bankable Avengers, while working with auteurs like the Coens, Woody Allen, DePalma, Nolan, Spike Jonze and Wes Anderson. And, this year, she's had her best run yet -- keeping up with her franchise, while having significant roles in two potential best picture nominees, roles that might bring her first two nominations at the same time. Richard Dreyfuss and Diane Keaton in 1977 were both first-time nominees, but they were familiar faces, and each had a second credit beyond their nominated performances (Dreyfuss Close Encounters, Keaton Mr. Goodbar), so voters ended up choosing them over oft-nominated actors like Burton an MacLaine. We might see something similar this year.

Third Scenario: She IS Judy!

I reckon I don't have to explain this one to you. 15 years ago, with Jamie Foxx in Ray, AMPAS voters began to develop an absurd taste for celebrity impersonations. The Academy had voted for biographical roles prior to this, but not so specifically for actors who mimicked familiar personalities (most of us had no idea what the real Jake LaMotta, Brandon Teena or Christy Brown looked or acted like. Even the one sort-of exception -- Irons in Reversal of Fortune -- was praised for the drollness of his characterization, not how much he resembled the tabloid figure von Bulow). Foxx was specifically lauded for uncannily resembling The Real Ray Charles, and he was soon followed by Philip Seymour Hoffman's Capote, Forest Whitaker's Idi Amin, Eddie Redmayne's Stephen Hawking, Gary Oldman's Churchill. (I don't put all bio-film performances into this category: Helen Mirren made no particular attempt to mimic Elizabeth II; Daniel-Day Lewis played a man -- Lincoln -- for who only still photos exist; and even Streep's Thatcher I only half-place in this box, since, in addition to doing her impression of the lady, she evokes the symptoms of Alzheimer's with almost terrifying precision, making it an imitation-plus perfomance.) There's no reason to assume voters will have lost their taste for such celebrity performances, and Renee Zellweger was duly praised by critics for her Judy Garland. Her scenario is by far the most likely, of the three I'm proposing, to come to fruition, especially if the brain-dead Broadcasters and Globes start the ball rolling.

But, two things: most of those folks I mentioned as precedent were connected to multi-nominated, best picture-nominated films (Last King of Scotland and The Iron Lady the only exceptions). And only Day-Lewis and Streep went into their races as Oscar winners, something they were able to get past by virtue off their exalted industry status. Renee Zellweger has the handicap of being a former winner, not having a major film, and having been virtually forgotten since her Oscar win. She also has Charlize Theron as potential fellow-nominee with roughly the same profile (deft celebrity impersonation, second-tier film, win already achieved). I don't think Theron is in it to win, but she might cannibalize the impersonation vote Zellweger has to count on.

As I say, I view Zellweger as the most likely winner, but the TV awards have the potential to change that if they make more individual choices.