SAG Nominations

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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by danfrank »

Happy belated birthday, Sabin. I'm predicting that Parasite takes best picture because virtually everybody seems to really like it. Even if slightly more voters have 1917 as their number 1, I think it's likely that most voters will have Parasite high on their list (slots 1 through 3), while many will have 1917 in the middle of the pack. Also, my omniscient gut tells me it's going to win.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Yesterday was my birthday. I glanced at my phone during the SAG awards as the updates rolled in. All expected winners. Then I saw that Parasite won SAG’s Ensemble Award and completely lit up. My friends asked why I was more excited about that than anything else that day.

So... what does this mean? This is necessary to keep Parasite from getting swallowed up in the last minute 1917 surge. If Bong Joon-Ho wins the DGA (which is unlikely) then Parasite is the favorite. It’s looking like Mendes will take that one. In the Oscar race, what does it mean for one movie to win the SAG and the other contender not to be nominated? It happens fairly frequently (Black Panther/Green Book, Three Billboards.../The Shape of Water, Hidden Figures/La La Land). I can’t help but think this is one of the effects of the SAG-AFTRA merger.

The closest parallel I can see is the split between Spotlight and The Revenant. Where the films are different are that 1917 has a writing nomination that The Revenant does not as well also winning the PGA while The Revenant did not (The Big Short), indicating fundamentally a wider range of support for the film. Considering that 1917 is likely to win the BAFTA as well as the DGA, it’s still the favorite to win. It might end up winning more Oscars than the usual Best Picture winner this decade.

Something that also strikes me about this race: usually it feels like the Academy tries on front-runners until it lands on the favorite. With this fast-paced calendar, it feels like they have barely had time to do that before just landing on 1917 in a spaz. Like they looked at The Irishman, then turned to Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, and then landed in 1917 like “Sure! This one.” A shorter calendar might eliminate the time for backlashes to set in, resulting in movies like Three Billboards... and La La Land to take it.

What’s weird about these two films (1917 and Parasite) is that there aren’t any backlashes. They are both well-liked.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Reza »

Bog wrote:Watching the second run show unfortunately...Brad Pitt is a national treasure, let's be honest. He works too much and is too "everywhere" to ever be separated from his Brad Pitt-ness, but, EXACTLY what I've always said is underrated about the man is why he killed. He killed this speech: he doesn't hide under a rock, knows these things are herd mentality, knew he would win....wrote a fine ass speech and...........WTF...memorized it like the actor he is...and it was self effacing as hell...for which I will forever be the target audience!
And he has a fantastic sense of humour talking about the character he played which had a more than veiled reference to his divorce from Angelina Jolie.

It was also nice to see Jennifer Aniston win and both Pitt and her greeting each other with pictures of that moment splashed across the net.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Bog »

Watching the second run show unfortunately...Brad Pitt is a national treasure, let's be honest. He works too much and is too "everywhere" to ever be separated from his Brad Pitt-ness, but, EXACTLY what I've always said is underrated about the man is why he killed. He killed this speech: he doesn't hide under a rock, knows these things are herd mentality, knew he would win....wrote a fine ass speech and...........WTF...memorized it like the actor he is...and it was self effacing as hell...for which I will forever be the target audience!
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

Breezy show - banter kept to a minimum. Parasite winning ensemble was a nice surprise. Phoenix, Pitt and Dern all made good speeches as did Zellweger once she got past referring to everyone as y'all. We know she's from Texas, but give it a rest.

I had a feeling De Niro would "go there" and he did. Good for him.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Mister Tee »

Parasite rescues the evening. If the show had ended with Hollywood (or Jojo Rabbit), the season would have become terminally dull. As evidenced by the earlier ovation, people just love this movie. You can't rule it out for best picture/director.

Otherwise, SAG voters played dutiful go-along-ers, ratifying the blogger template. I don't even violently begrudge any of them -- the bloggers set a tasty table. It's just this desire to pre-set the Oscars that drives me crazy, and takes most of the fun out of even a pretty bountiful year.

Joaquin Phoenix stunned all by demonstrating he could deliver a gracious and wonderful speech.

Renee Zellweger continues to make me wonder where along the line she turned into Ma Kettle.

Pitt's speech was also mostly terrific.

Dern had her moments, but the best part was hugging her father on the way up.
Last edited by Mister Tee on Sun Jan 19, 2020 10:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Mister Tee »

I don't know when I've been less amped to watch the SAGs. The season is absurdly rushed and losing juice fast (the one possibly helping cause the other).

Only two things of potential interest tonight:

If SAG somehow dissents from any of the four acting front-runners. Not the way to bet, but maybe they'll prevent something from getting set in stone.

Whoever wins Ensemble. At least we know it can't be 1917. Anything that wins will at least have the possibility of creating an alternate center of gravity for the best picture race.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote]
Supporting actress seems to me much like how Sabin described the field two years ago: two front-runners (Dern/Lopez) and a multi-party tie for fifth place. Robbie would now seem to have semi-solidified her spot, and Johansson is clearly helped by the last several days' developments, but I don't think either should buy their Academy gowns just yet. Truly seriously hurt, though, is Zhao Shuzhen; SAG is precisely where a candidacy like hers could have been boosted.
For the past three years, Best Supporting Actress has been a bit maddening. But when waters get murky, go with coattails.

In 2018, the HFP and SAG agreed on Adams, Stone, and Wesiz, leaving Foy (HFP), King (HFP), Blunt (SAG), and Robbie (SAG) in the wings. They ended up going with King and when forced to choose between a bomb and a horror film, they went with Marina de Tavira in a coattails nomination.

In 2017, the HFP and SAG agreed on Chau, Blige, Janey, and Metcalf, leaving Hunter (SAG) and Spencer (HFP) in the wings, but Chau didn't feel right. They ended up ignoring Chau and going with Spencer and Lesley Manville who was nominated by the BAFTAs. Both were pretty coattails.

This year, the HFP and SAG agree on Dern, Lopez, and Robbie, leaving Bates (HFP), Being (HFP), Johansson (SAG), and Kidman (SAG) in the wings. History suggests that these voters love coattails which bodes well for Johansson's chances and perhaps Kidman's as well. And depending on how much their films connect, maybe Zhao Shuzhen and Forence Pugh.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Mister Tee »

Typically, the children at Awards Worthy are making extravagant pronouncements ("R.I.P. Little Women"; "Parasite is SO winning!" A couple of things worth remembering: 1) we still don't know how much impact the merger with AFTRA has had on SAG's propensity for matching AMPAS; 2) certain SAG tendencies (under-awarding December releases and foreign-language entries) remain in play; and 3) unlike last year, there's a pretty bountiful group of potential contenders, so a film missing in one spot may be simply luck of the draw rather than fatal failing -- we have to wait for the totality of evidence before coming to sweeping conclusions.

Nevertheless, some thoughts:

Given the foreign-language handicap, Parasite's Ensemble citation is exceptional news. It confirms that the film is not popular-considering-it's-foreign, but strong enough for top tier in general. As for its chances of actually pulling off the win neither Crouching Tiger nor Roma could, I'm of two minds -- on the one hand, it's considerably more mainstream than Roma, and less embedded in a disreputable genre than Crouching Tiger; on the other, it's competing against a far stronger field of English-language films than either of those did. It's possible, though, the film could win on this nomination, which would give it a big boost going forward.

By the way, I think this nomination is 1) deserved and 2) precisely the right recognition for a film where no individual performance truly jumps out, but where the whole cast works together beautifully.

I asked yesterday, what would be this year's Trumbo, and I guess it should have occurred to me to look to the director of Trumbo (as well as Game Change and Recount, earlier SAG nominees/winners). Bombshell scoring all those nods, including Ensemble, despite a late release, would seem to indicate something, but it might be simply, as Filmfan notes, a natural appeal to AFTRA voters. Kidman's tag-along nomination is reminiscent of Don Cheadle/Crash or Tommy Lee Jones/No Country -- an adjunct to a more highly-touted co-star -- and also reminds us that SAG nominated her for The Paperboy, for Christ's sake.

Jojo Rabbit, after predictably failing at the serious critics, has been racking up all the square credentials -- NBR, Broadcasters, such Guilds as have announced -- and is fully in line to be this year's Green Book. (Minus the finale, one hopes.)

The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood simply validate their positions as the great Hollywood hopes for this year. I'm not sure how much the DeNiro omission means. It could just be that some see him as passive observer without enough opportunity for "acting" (an analysis with which I disagree, but never mind), but still like/love the film enough to vote for it overall. It could mean some inherent weakness for the film overall. Or it could just mean he was on the bubble and was boxed out of this particular match-up, but could turn up elsewhere. We won't know the definitive answer till nominations morning.

Marriage Story's miss could similarly be chalked up to general weakness, or to what I opined yesterday: that the film could be seen as mostly a two-/three-hander (a la La La Land) and thus not really Ensemble-y. Since the film got all its main actors nominated, I'm incline to bet on the second scenario.

As for the other films left out: just when I figure out that SAG likes black-dominated and Netflix movies, they blow off Dolemite without a moment's thought. Eddie Murphy's hopes for a long-shot Oscar nod would appear to have taken a big hit... My instinct that The Farewell had faded was sadly prescient. For an emotionally appealing movie that's been out/in the bloodstream since mid-summer to miss completely at SAG is a very bad sign going forward... At a certain point, as with Selma and Beale Street, we have to pull back on rationalizing all the Little Women omissions as simply due to release date issues. It seems strange that a film getting such wildly enthusiastic notices could bomb as badly as it's doing, but perhaps, when it comes to Hollywood awards bodies, they're just not into it. I'd say PGA now looks like its last stand -- if it doesn't make a list of 10 there, it could have a very ugly nominations day... 1917 has also been kind of underperforming in the early go, but this particular guild was never a spot for it to shine, so no harm no foul.

Bale and Egerton can't be completely dismissed as Oscar hopefuls, having both now scored with SAG and the Globes (while missing Broadcasters). But Egerton, especially, feels like a "we saw it early and stick to it" SAG pick. I'm fairly confident Banderas will knock someone off, and I'm not completely pessimistic about DeNiro riding the Irishman train to an Oscar nod. Frankly, I'm still not entirely sold on DiCaprio making it all the way. As I see it, Driver and Phoenix are sure nominees, and the rest are fungible in this competitive year.

Similarly, in best actress, it's hard to figure just who the bubble candidates are. Zellweger seems certain, and I'd say Johansson comes next (though some, including Sabin, harbor doubts). Nyong'o scoring here but missing the Globes, and Ronan doing the opposite, marks both maybe yes/maybe no. Erivo and Theron getting both doesn't mean the world -- as Hong Chau will attest. The true long-shots -- Woodard, Mary Kay Place -- have had no encouragement from the TV groups, and seem out of it.

Yesterday, I thought the Globe five supporting actors could easily transfer over, but now Foxx (whose work has been much praised) shows up to skew that. It's odd that, with all the Bombshell love, John Lithgow's much-praised work couldn't score. I continue to see him, Alda and Chalamet as people connected to top-category contenders who could unexpectedly crash this category (as Tom Hardy did a few years back).

Supporting actress seems to me much like how Sabin described the field two years ago: two front-runners (Dern/Lopez) and a multi-party tie for fifth place. Robbie would now seem to have semi-solidified her spot, and Johansson is clearly helped by the last several days' developments, but I don't think either should buy their Academy gowns just yet. Truly seriously hurt, though, is Zhao Shuzhen; SAG is precisely where a candidacy like hers could have been boosted.

Final word about SAG/AFTRA: last year, they failed to nominate the supporting actress Oscar winner, and gave their award to someone not nominated at AMPAS. They also failed to predict the best actress Oscar, and gave Ensemble to a movie that wasn't among the Academy's top five. They remain, till further notice, a precursor worth noting, but not the final word on anything.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Early winner predictions:

Outstanding Ensemble: Parasite
Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Outstanding Female Actor in a Leading Role: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Outstanding Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Outstanding Female Actor in a Leading Role: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Outstanding Stunt Ensemble: Avengers: Endgame
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Sabin
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Bombshell is at 62% on RT.
Ouch.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by FilmFan720 »

Sabin wrote: Bombshell is also a big winner, although to be honest this film's subject matter is so much up the SAG's ally. I'm personally dreading the idea of watching two hours of somebody playing Megan Kelly as a hero.
More specifically, the AFTRA crowd.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by anonymous1980 »

I was told by a SAG voter at another message board that neither John Wick 3 nor 1917 were in the ballot for Stunt Ensemble.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Sabin »

Parasite is the big winner of the morning for sure. That's a major feather in their cap. I've had a feeling for a moment that a Best Picture win isn't outside the realm of possibility considering that last year a Foreign-Language Film probably came very close to winning.

Bombshell is also a big winner, although to be honest this film's subject matter is so much up the SAG's ally. I'm personally dreading the idea of watching two hours of somebody playing Megan Kelly as a hero.

Jojo Rabbit also needed this.

Jamie Foxx seems like he has the yearly "This won't get nominated for an Oscar" nomination but good for him.

Biggest losers: Eddie Murphy for Dolemite is My Name (a film I thought would be right up their ally), The Two Popes (although to be honest I don't think these people bothered to see it), Little Women (again: not sure they saw it, just a sense), and The Farewell.

These people shouldn't be voting on stunts. The Irishman, Joker, and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood over presumably the remarkable stunt work of the latest John Wick.
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Re: SAG Nominations

Post by Big Magilla »

Bad news for Little Women and The Two Popes.

Bale and Egerton over De Niro and Banderas, let alone Pryce, are the kind of populist nods that might be expected from this group, but they could carry over to the Oscars.

Ronan's omission is more of a shock. Popular though she and her film may be, I still don't understand how Nyong'o keeps racking up these nominations and wins.

None of the supporting players are surprises but a double nod for Johansson is something that was in doubt.

And, yes, a cast nod for Parasite is huge. It could actually win with the star-heavy competition knocking one another out.
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