The Golden Globe Award Nominees

[Sabin]

dws1982 wrote
Again, not sure that I have much point here. But I will say that when half of Film Twitter is upset that Lorene Scafaria or Lulu Wang didn't get a nomination that everyone who was paying attention knew they didn't have a shot at, I start to suspect that maybe they really aren't all that interested in nominating the best directors of the year anyway.

I'll dip my toe in these waters. But first off, congratulations are due to Bong Joon-ho who I believe became the second Asian person nominated for Best Director. I haven't done any research but that's correct, right?

These people believe that the only gateway to equal representation is over-representation until it happens. I'm not sure they'd even deny it. And I'll be honest: they might not be wrong that that is a solution.

But fundamentally, there's only so many movies that will capture an Oscar buzz. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Hustlers weren't going to do it. The Farewell and Little Women still could. I think it's always just a testament to the race and the other films in competition. I'm sure when I see both of them, I will wholeheartedly believe that Lulu Wang and Greta Gerwig deserved nominations over Sam Mendes, Todd Phillips, and Quentin Tarantino. But if I'm being honest with myself, the only snub that stands out to be as especially egregious is Greta Gerwig for Lady Bird, a film that DID capture that buzz, but she lost out to Ridley Scott for All the Money in the World and Steven Spielberg for The Post, probably two of the most forgettable films ever nominated in the category. Who remembers them?

I hear them. And certainly, I get why they're pissed on a day when Todd Phillips (a pretty obnoixious individual) gets nominated for a film with 69% on Rotten Tomatoes.

[dws1982]

Lots of articles about the lack of female director nominees.

This article mentions that somewhere between 12% and 14% of the top 100 films of the year are directed by females. As an AP Statistics teacher this year, I decided to play around with that statistic.

First, I assumed that statistic held for the general population of Golden Globe eligible films. (The only way to really know would be to count the films actually eligible and classify them by male/female directors, and I don't have time for that.) Then I split the difference between 12% and 14% and went with 13%. If you randomly selected five directors of all of the eligible films, almost exactly half of the time (49.842% to be exact) you would get a list that consisted of five males, no females. 37.238% of the time you would get a list that consisted of four males, one female. Only about 13% of the time would a randomly-selected list of five directors consist of more than one female director.

Not sure what my point is, other than the fact that when men are still directing over 85% of the films, it stands to reason that these lists are still going to be mostly male. It's not necessarily sexism every time. It's often just the way the votes fell. Assume you have ten directors in strong contention for five spots, and assume two of those directors are female. (Honestly I can't think of a year where there were two females in contention, but let's go with it.) Also assume everyone of that ten has an equal shot at getting a nomination. Probability of getting a female director nominated is 20%. But assuming everyone has an equal shot, the probability of getting a list of five directors with zero females on it is 64%, probability of one is 32% and the probability of both is 4%.

Again, not sure that I have much point here. But I will say that when half of Film Twitter is upset that Lorene Scafaria or Lulu Wang didn't get a nomination that everyone who was paying attention knew they didn't have a shot at, I start to suspect that maybe they really aren't all that interested in nominating the best directors of the year anyway.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
Starting with DeNiro. There's been buzz for weeks that HFPA "didn't like" The Irishman, and the AWers are leaping on this omission as evidence. But, as has been noted, the Globes have a personal gripe with DeNiro, which may be the dominant reason behind his absence. Certainly, the film otherwise got all it could have asked for.

One could have said the same for A Star is Born a year ago.

I haven't heard either rumor: about their distaste for The Irishman or their personal gripe with De Niro. I looked up the latter. Is this just a blogger fabrication? Because having seen (and enjoyed) the film, I have no difficulty seeing how De Niro' s performance could have been passed over for something flashier?

But if indeed they aren't that into The Irishman (and its five nominations suggests they at least like it just fine), might I suggest another alternative besides Marriage Story: what if they give it to Joker? Sure, it didn't get a screenplay nomination. Neither did Bohemian Rhapsody. But truly, with a Best Director nomination for Todd Phillips, it did as well as it needed to. And judging from Joker's win at Venice, there are people overseas who like it more than we do.

Mister Tee wrote
This Annette Bening thing reminds me of Jennifer Aniston/Cake -- it seems to be more a product of blogger mentions than of people seeing/praising the performance. Supporting actress feels like it could be different by at least two slots at the Oscars.

I've seen Annette Being in The Report. While Adam Driver gives the best performance in the film (and truly, it wouldn't work without him), Bening has the flashier turn. She's the one doing the "acting." She has all the standout acting moments, the big speech at the end, and she's pretty uncanny as Feinstein. I don't think The Report is going to be seen enough for Bening to get an Oscar nomination (both because our foreign policy and response to terrorism clearly isn't anything many Democrats care about today AND the fact that Amazon has basically dropped it onto Prime rather than an extended release) but a nomination wouldn't be undeserved or unsurprising.

[nightwingnova]

I honestly did not find De Niro's Irishman work really good until the last hour. During the first 2.5 hours, I didn't find much depth to his performance. Either that or the CGI blurred his insight.

I was surprised, but not shocked, by De Niro's omission. Yes, he ran afoul of the Globes with his 2011 speech in which he insulted the HFPA for giving him their Cecil B. DeMille award, but they nominated again two years ago for his TV work. Still, they do like Christian Bale whose inclusion surprised me somewhat.

For me, the bigger surprise among the inclusions was Cate Blanchett in Best Actress - Comedy category, but then it was a weak year for women in comedy.

Bening shouldn't have been a surprise. She was on many prediction lists - I had her on mine until I saw The Report which leads me to wonder if the nomination came from those who hadn't actually seen the film or fell asleep while watching it. More interesting speculation might be whether it was Florence Pugh in Little Women or Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey who was dropped instead of Bening with the last-minute emergence of Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell.

[Big Magilla]

I was surprised, but not shocked, by De Niro's omission. Yes, he ran afoul of the Globes with his 2011 speech in which he insulted the HFPA for giving him their Cecil B. DeMille award, but they nominated again two years ago for his TV work. Still, they do like Christian Bale whose inclusion surprised me somewhat.

For me, the bigger surprise among the inclusions was Cate Blanchett in Best Actress - Comedy category, but then it was a weak year for women in comedy.

Bening shouldn't have been a surprise. She was on many prediction lists - I had her on mine until I saw The Report which leads me to wonder if the nomination came from those who hadn't actually seen the film or fell asleep while watching it. More interesting speculation might be whether it was Florence Pugh in Little Women or Maggie Smith in Downton Abbey who was dropped instead of Bening with the last-minute emergence of Kathy Bates in Richard Jewell.

[Mister Tee]

Given how many truly execrable musicals this group has nominated, even in recent years, can you imagine how beyond the pale Cats must be?

This is a little like the Broadcasters' list, only with an inability to extend the number of nominees, forcing choices. Even so, the two categories for leads enabled most bruited contenders to show up, with exceptions to be noted further on.

Starting with DeNiro. There's been buzz for weeks that HFPA "didn't like" The Irishman, and the AWers are leaping on this omission as evidence. But, as has been noted, the Globes have a personal gripe with DeNiro, which may be the dominant reason behind his absence. Certainly, the film otherwise got all it could have asked for.

Adam Sandler is also missing, confirming suspicions that Uncut Gems may be more a critics' thing than an industry thing.

It may be that Lupita's run started a bit too late for the Globes to catch up with it. Or it may be horror is just not their thing (they weren't much on Get Out, either). Lupita could still make AMPAS' list, but strictly as place-filler; there's no way that performance is an Oscar winner. (Just watched the movie last night and -- I'll write about it more later -- I'm frankly shocked critics are going for such a low-grade film.)

Gerwig wasn't director-nominated for Lady Bird, either, but here the ignoring was more widespread: Ronan's nomination was the only real sign voters had even seen the film. This near-blackballing, combined with the elevation of bro-fave Joker, makes this group seem a trifle male-centered.

1917 appears, and gets I guess most of what it needed -- though a screenplay mention would have made it seem stronger.

Hey, The Two Popes rises from the dead! After NBR and Broadcaster disses, it seemed like it was out of the picture. Dare I wonder if it's got Philomena juice? That was another film that had Globes only, but made it to the Oscars anyway.

Minor a factor as it is, I'm happy Emma Thompson got cited for her terrific performance.

This Annette Bening thing reminds me of Jennifer Aniston/Cake -- it seems to be more a product of blogger mentions than of people seeing/praising the performance. Supporting actress feels like it could be different by at least two slots at the Oscars.

Supporting actor, on the other hand, feels alarmingly set. Though there are plenty of other candidates, these five seem to have grabbed hold and will be hard to dislodge.

It's hard to imagine Todd Phillips scoring with the directing branch of AMPAS. I think the other four here are close to locked in for an Oscar nod, and the fifth will be unknown till nominations day.

Word is, Disney didn't even submit The Lion King under animated, so this is ind of an insult wrapped inside an honor.

[nightwingnova]

The only notable omission is Lupita N'yongo for Us.

[Reza]

Only major surprise is Robert de Niro missing the nomination.

Other than that happy to see Joker and Todd Phillips nominated.

Ditto.

So glad the ridiculous JoJo Rabbit was snubbed. Hope the Academy has the sense to do the same.

[Franz Ferdinand]

They don't name the songwriters, but there are some heavy hitters in the music categories: Taylor Swift, as Sabin mentioned, along with Beyonce for "Spirit" and of course Elton John for "I'm Gonna Love Me Again". The Anderson-Lopez Frozen committee strikes again, Cynthia Erivo received a second nomination for co-writing "Stand Up", and Randy Newman wrote the score for Marriage Story.

Some notable missing names from my musical universe include Thom Yorke (song in Motherless Brooklyn), Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for scoring Waves, and The Haxan Cloak for scoring Midsommar.

[Sabin]

I'd say the biggest surprise was The Lion King for Best Animated Film. I get it, but what?

I'd say the biggest winner of the morning was Joker. Four nominations. A Best Director nomination.It beat out Ford v Ferrari, Little Women, and Bombshell.

Despite the fact that it ended up with a Best Film nomination, I'd say the biggest loser of the morning was Jojo Rabbit. While there's no overlap in voting for Best Picture, its lack of nominations for Directing and Writing make it look like it's not going to win Best Picture over Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. That kind of visibility certainly helps in the Oscar race. That being said, Bohemian Rhapsody surprised last year with two nominations, so... I guess you never know.

Roma repeat? Parasite picks up the same nominations as Roma did last year crossing over as a foreign-language film for Director, Screenplay, and Foreign-Language Film.

Taylor Swift got her third Golden Globe nomination for Best Song and her first since disavowing white supremacy, so good for her. And us!

Marriage Story has six nominations. I wonder will it win any? Best Screenplay seems like its best shot. Picture is certainly possible but it seems like The Irishman is a better better. Dramatic Actor, Actress, and Score don't seem likely. Laura Dern has a chance for Supporting Actress but I really think Jennifer Lopez has a better shot. If somehow they decide to go with Tarantino again or The Two Popes, Marriage Story will become one of the biggest Golden Globe losers ever.


So... ?

Best Motion Picture - Drama: Joker
Best Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best International Film: Parasite
Best Animated Film: Toy Story 4
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Best Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical: Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Best Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy/Musical: Awkwafina, The Farewell
Best Supporting Actor: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Best Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Best Original Score: Joker
Best Original Song: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman) or "Into the Unknown" (Frozen 2)

[mlrg]

Only major surprise is Robert de Niro missing the nomination.

Other than that happy to see Joker and Todd Phillips nominated.

[anonymous1980]

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
“1917”
“Irishman”
“Joker”
“Marriage Story”
“The Two Popes”

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
“Dolemite is my Name”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Knives Out”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Rocketman”

BEST DIRECTOR
Bong Joon Ho, “Parasite”
Sam Mendes, “1917”
Quentin Tarantino, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Martin Scorsese, “The Irishman”
Todd Phillips, “Joker”

BEST ACTOR – DRAMA
Christian Bale, “Ford v. Ferrari”
Antonio Banderas, “Pain and Glory”
Adam Driver, “Marriage Story”
Joaquin Phoenix, “Joker”
Jonathan Pryce, “The Two Popes”

BEST ACTRESS – DRAMA
Cynthio Erivo, “Harriet”
Scarlett Johansson, “Marriage Story”
Soarise Ronana, “Little Women”
Charlize Theron, “Bombshell”
Renee Zellweger, “Judy”

BEST ACTOR – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Daniel Craig (“Knives Out”)
Roman Griffin Davis (“Jojo Rabbit”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Taron Egerton (“Rocketman”)
Eddie Murphy (“Dolemite Is My Name”)

BEST ACTRESS – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Awkwafina, “The Farewell”
Ana de Armas, “Knives Out”
Beanie Feldstein, “Booksmart”
Emma Thompson, “Late Night”
Cate Blanchett, “Where’d You Go Bernadette”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks, “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”
Al Pacino, “The Irishman”
Joe Pesci, “The Irishman”
Brad Pitt, “Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
Anthony Hopkins, “The Two Popes”

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Annette Benning, “The Report”
Margot Robbie, “Bombshell”
Jennifer Lopez, “Hustlers”
Kathy Bates, “Richard Jewell”
Laura Dern, “Marriage Stor”

BEST SCREENPLAY
“Marriage Story”
“Parasite”
“The Two Popes”
“Once Upon A Time In Hollywood”
“The Irishman”

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
“Motherless Brooklyn”
“Little Women”
“Joker”
“1917”
“Marriage Story”

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Beautiful Ghosts” – CATS
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” – Rocketman
“Into the Unknown” – Frozen 2
“Spirit” – The Lion King
“Stand Up” – Harriet

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
“Frozen 2”
“The Lion King”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World”

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
“The Farewell”
“Les Misérables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”
“Portrait of a Lady on Fire”

- Most surprising nominees: Todd Philips, Annette Bening and "Motherless Brooklyn" in Score.
- Most surprising snubs: Robert De Niro, Florence Pugh and the "Jojo Rabbit" under-performance. No Screenplay or Directing nominations.