SAG Awards (predictions)

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Sabin
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Re: SAG Awards (predictions)

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
Finally, a movie you both cite, The Farewell. I'm not quite sure what to to do with this. I very much thought, when I saw the film back in August, that it would do well here. And the fact it's been around long enough for lots of folks to see it in home viewing, only builds its case. And the Asian factor might help, with a Guild that seems all-in on diversity. But I wonder if there are too any heavyweights in the race this year, enough to box it out.
I haven't seen The Farewell yet. It seems like it would be up their alley. Since the SAG-AFTRA merger, they've been all about diversity and it's been available to watch for sometime.

I'm the most positive about the two movies with the worst chance of getting Oscar nominations: Dolemite is My Name and Hustlers. This year's Captain Fantastic is certainly Honey Boy, although I'm not quite ballsy enough to predict it yet.

I have no certainty about The Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I'm a little more reticent on the former, which certainly boasts great star-power but it's in a film I'm not sure they care about. I think that caveat affects Marriage Story quite a bit. The problem with Marriage Story isn't that it's a movie about two white showbiz folks, but they're two white showbiz folks you might not care that much about. I know I didn't care that much about them and (this is strictly anecdotal) I've heard more than one SAG voter echo that.

A movie that might have a slightly better chance might end up being Jojo Rabbit. It's star-studded, populist, and despite being love it/hate it, it has pretty big crossover appeal across age groups.

In fact...

(SEE CHANGES BELOW)
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Mister Tee
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Re: SAG Awards (predictions)

Post by Mister Tee »

As in other years, I don't attempt to anticipate what no-hoper SAG puts on the ballot (Helen Mirren/Woman in Gold; Sarah Silverman/I can't even remember the title), or which contenders get the blow of omission (though most likely are foreign performers or December releases). But I do think about the Ensemble category, since that's the one that can bleed over into/have influence on the Oscars.

Despite some oddball years, at least part of the category is usually devoted to top-tier best picture contenders. And there I'm more with Sabin than Anonymous, in thinking Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and The Irishman are hard to exclude -- especially since the former has been out a long time, and the latter has been a heavy streaming choice over the past two weeks. Marriage Story is a solid choice, as well, though with two small handicaps: the fact that it only hit streaming days ago, and the fact that people might think of the film as largely a two-hander (or three, if you want to include Dern), with the rest seen as peripheral. (I'm not saying I view it that way, but others might. Think La La Land.)

While the Oscars and Globes have been taking major heat for not highlighting black performers, SAG has been exceptionally hospitable to majority-black-cast movies: Beasts of No Nation, Straight Outta Compton, Hidden Figures, Fences (along with Moonlight), Black Panther -- many of these actually winning unexpected prizes. The only film this year that fits that designation is Dolemite is My Name, which both of you have cited, and with which I concur.

In fact, Dolemite has a double asset: not only its mostly back cast, but its position as a Netflix offering. Whatever resistance AMPAS may have to Netflix, again SAG has been ahead of them, nominating Beasts of No Nation and Mudbound, making one wonder if, for the SAG nominating committee, Netflix is a plus. (Roma's omission last year doesn't contradict this, as Roma was as far from a SAG Ensemble-type movie as you could find while staying in the same galaxy.)

Then there's the SAG tendency to go for big casts in box-office hits, without necessarily much regard to critical ranking -- Crazy Rich Asians would be the pinnacle of that. And Sabin pinpoints Hustlers as a really good choice there. It's also possible that, when all is said and done, Little Women will qualify, as well (with a higher critical standing), but I'm expecting that to fall victim to Screened-Too-Late syndrome.

Finally, a movie you both cite, The Farewell. I'm not quite sure what to to do with this. I very much thought, when I saw the film back in August, that it would do well here. And the fact it's been around long enough for lots of folks to see it in home viewing, only builds its case. And the Asian factor might help, with a Guild that seems all-in on diversity. But I wonder if there are too any heavyweights in the race this year, enough to box it out.

I also of course wonder what'll be the film that no one's thinking of: the Trumbo/Captain Fantastic choice that gives us a collective "Huh?" tomorrow.

Anyway, time to stop the hemming/hawing. My prediction (not preference):

Dolemite is My Name
Hustlers
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Sabin
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Re: SAG Awards (predictions)

Post by Sabin »

BEST ENSEMBLE
Dolemite is My Name
The Farewell
Hustlers
Jojo Rabbit
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST LEAD MALE
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Eddie Murphy, Dolemite is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

BEST LEAD FEMALE
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Cynthia Erivo, Harriet
Lupita Nyong’o, Us
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Shia LeBoeuf, Honey Boy
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Dolemite is My Name
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
Last edited by Sabin on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:36 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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SAG Awards (predictions)

Post by anonymous1980 »

Predictions!

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A CAST IN A MOTION PICTURE

Titus Burgess, Ron Cephas-Jones, Mike Epps, Keegan Michael-Key, Eddie Murphy, Da'Vine Joy Randolph, Craig Robinson, Kodi Smit-McPhee, Wesley Snipes and Snoop Dogg, Dolemite is My Name

Awkwafina, Chen Han, Jiang Yongbo, Diane Lin, Lu Hong, Tzi Ma, Aoi Mizuhara, Zhang Jiang and Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

Alfie Allen, Roman Griffin Davis, Scarlett Johansson, Thomasin McKenzie, Stephen Merchant, Sam Rockwell, Taika Waititi and Rebel Wilson, Jojo Rabbit

K Callan, Toni Collette, Daniel Craig, Jamie Lee Curtis, Ana de Armas, Don Johnson, Katherine Langford, Riki Lindhome, Jaeden Martell, Frank Oz, Edi Patterson, Christopher Plummer, Noah Segan, Michael Shannon and LaKeith Stanfield, Knives Out

Alan Alda, Laura Dern, Adam Driver, Julie Hagerty, Scarlett Johansson, Ray Liotta, Azhy Robertson and Merritt Wever, Marriage Story

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Robert De Niro as Frank Sheeran, The Irishman
Leonardo DiCaprio as Rick Dalton, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Adam Driver as Charlie Barber, Marriage Story
Eddie Murphy as Rudy Ray Moore, Dolemite is My Name
Joaquin Phoenix as Arthur Fleck/Joker, Joker

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Cynthia Erivo as Harriet Tubman, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson as Nicole Barber, Marriage Story
Lupita Nyong'o as Adelaide Wilson/Red, Us
Charlize Theron as Megyn Kelly, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger as Judy Garland, Judy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A MALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Tom Hanks as Fred Rogers, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino as Jimmy Hoffa, The Irishman
Joe Pesci as Russell Bufalino, The Irishman
Brad Pitt as Cliff Booth, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Christopher Plummer as Harland Thromby, Knives Out

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A FEMALE ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Laura Dern as Nora Fanshaw, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson as Rosie, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez as Ramona Vega, Hustlers
Margot Robbie as Sharon Tate, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Zhao Shuzhen as Nai Nai, The Farewell

BEST PERFORMANCE BY A STUNT ENSEMBLE IN A MOTION PICTURE
Avengers: Endgame
Captain Marvel
Ford v. Ferrari
Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Spider-Man: Far from Home
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