I'll weigh in. I don't trust these people. Off of their choice last year (Green Book), I was going to go with Jojo Rabbit but I'm increasingly sold on Tee's notion that 1917 might be up their alley.
QUICK ASIDE: this decade, we haven't seen many films sweep the critics awards. The Social Network did. And Boyhood and Roma came close (as did The Hurt Locker before it). Has anyone entertained the idea that Parasite might end up sweeping? I don't think it's quite as big on this message board as it is elsewhere but it has very few detractors and it was the unanimous choice of the Cannes Jury in a strong field.
Best Film: 1917
Best Foreign-Language Film: Pain & Glory
Best Documentary: American Factory
Best Actor: Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
Best Actress: Renee Zellweger, Judy
Best Supporting Actor: Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Best Supporting Actress: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Best Director: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Best Original Screenplay: The Farewell
Best Adapted Screenplay: Little Women
Best Animated Feature: I Lost My Body
Breakthrough Performance: Florence Pugh, Little Women & Midsommar
Directorial Debut: Olivia Wilde, Booksmart
Best Ensemble: Hustlers
Freedom of Expression Award: The Report
National Board of Review
Re: National Board of Review
"How's the despair?"
Re: National Board of Review
I have a feeling that The Report is going to win something. I could see it taking Best Adapted Screenplay as well as Best Supporting Actress for Annette Bening.
The NBR Freedom of Expression is probably going to Just Mercy. If The Report doesn't win anything else, it could take that award.
The NBR Freedom of Expression is probably going to Just Mercy. If The Report doesn't win anything else, it could take that award.
"How's the despair?"
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Mister Tee
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Re: National Board of Review
Over the next week or so, we’re going to see the first efforts to shape this broad slate of films into an Oscar field. I find myself even more interested than usual. There’s a bountiful group of very highly-praised films, and above average-to-strong contenders for every acting category – yet, I don’t think any top-line category has a discernable front-runner (not that anything would be a lock at this stage, but, in past years, people like Casey Affleck or Gary Oldman felt definitely ahead of the pack in a way no one does this year). In some categories – notably film and supporting actor -- I’m even murky on which entrants will form the pool from which the ultimate winner will emerge.
This general muddle makes the initial year-end awards even more interesting than usual, and I find myself looking especially to the NBR for developments. I feel like I know the films that will contend strongest in NY (hope to post on that later). When it comes to NBR, though, I’m adrift because 1) their taste has been a bit over the map of late, and 2) beyond that, even within a strictly middlebrow/populist ethos they’ve most often favored, I’m not sure which of several films would meet their desires this year and which would leave them cold. So, they could clarify some of the field.
Of course, we have NBR idiosyncrasies to consider. They seldom bypass the Coens, Spike Jonze or Clint Eastwood – meaning Richard Jewell gets automatic consideration. They’ve been over-rewarding Warner Brothers films for years, meaning Joker might nab a spot; maybe Just Mercy, as well. Lately they’ve shown similar favoritism toward A24 films, suggesting Uncut Gems and The Farewell could make the top ten. (The latter could be classified as in-English for its 25% or so that’s not in Chinese, where Parasite is more likely to be banished to the overseas ghetto. Unless they decide Parasite, like Roma, is such a potent overall contender it deserves a top ten spot, rules be damned.) They have a tendency to throw in a popcorn film or two to lighten the mood. And, one recent tic that has me alert: for the past two years, they’ve shown an inexplicable aversion to Fox Searchlight releases -- omitting both The Shape of Water and Three Billboards (arguably AMPAS’ top two films) two years back, and leaving off The Favourite and Black Klansman last year (films which, by virtue of film/director/screenplay nominations, had to be considered top-five contenders at the Oscars). For this reason, though I understand Sabin’s feeling that Jojo Rabbit could be the choice of a group that picked Green Book a year ago, I wonder if this bias might keep the film off their list entirely.
So, here’s my list:
Best Film: 1917
Top Ten beyond that:
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Just Mercy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Richard Jewell
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
What have I left out? Marriage Story, because it just seems like the sophisticated choice they might pass on. Jojo Rabbit, because, like I said, Fox Searchlight. Parasite, because I’m thinking it sticks to foreign-language. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, not quite big enough. Knives Out, even though I really wanted to fit it in. I could EASILY be wrong about any or all of these.
The rest (with alternates):
Actor: Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
[Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)]
Actress: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
[Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)]
This feels like the one place outside of the regional groups where Zellweger should dominate (as Julianne Moore and Brie Larson did). And if there’s any place the fuddy-duddy-ness of The Two Popes would be an asset, it’s here.
S. Actor: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
[Al Pacino (The Irishman)]
S. Actress: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
[Florence Pugh (Little Women)]
Director: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
[Sam Mendes (1917)]
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
[The Farewell]
Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
[The Two Popes]
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
[Frozen 2]
Breakthrough Performance: Paul Walter Hauser
[Florence Pugh]
Directorial Debut: Olivia Wilde (Booksmart)
[Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)]
Foreign Language Film: Parasite
[Pain and Glory]
Documentary: American Factory
[Honeyland]
Ensemble: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
[Hustlers]
This general muddle makes the initial year-end awards even more interesting than usual, and I find myself looking especially to the NBR for developments. I feel like I know the films that will contend strongest in NY (hope to post on that later). When it comes to NBR, though, I’m adrift because 1) their taste has been a bit over the map of late, and 2) beyond that, even within a strictly middlebrow/populist ethos they’ve most often favored, I’m not sure which of several films would meet their desires this year and which would leave them cold. So, they could clarify some of the field.
Of course, we have NBR idiosyncrasies to consider. They seldom bypass the Coens, Spike Jonze or Clint Eastwood – meaning Richard Jewell gets automatic consideration. They’ve been over-rewarding Warner Brothers films for years, meaning Joker might nab a spot; maybe Just Mercy, as well. Lately they’ve shown similar favoritism toward A24 films, suggesting Uncut Gems and The Farewell could make the top ten. (The latter could be classified as in-English for its 25% or so that’s not in Chinese, where Parasite is more likely to be banished to the overseas ghetto. Unless they decide Parasite, like Roma, is such a potent overall contender it deserves a top ten spot, rules be damned.) They have a tendency to throw in a popcorn film or two to lighten the mood. And, one recent tic that has me alert: for the past two years, they’ve shown an inexplicable aversion to Fox Searchlight releases -- omitting both The Shape of Water and Three Billboards (arguably AMPAS’ top two films) two years back, and leaving off The Favourite and Black Klansman last year (films which, by virtue of film/director/screenplay nominations, had to be considered top-five contenders at the Oscars). For this reason, though I understand Sabin’s feeling that Jojo Rabbit could be the choice of a group that picked Green Book a year ago, I wonder if this bias might keep the film off their list entirely.
So, here’s my list:
Best Film: 1917
Top Ten beyond that:
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Just Mercy
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Richard Jewell
The Two Popes
Uncut Gems
What have I left out? Marriage Story, because it just seems like the sophisticated choice they might pass on. Jojo Rabbit, because, like I said, Fox Searchlight. Parasite, because I’m thinking it sticks to foreign-language. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, not quite big enough. Knives Out, even though I really wanted to fit it in. I could EASILY be wrong about any or all of these.
The rest (with alternates):
Actor: Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
[Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)]
Actress: Renee Zellweger (Judy)
[Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)]
This feels like the one place outside of the regional groups where Zellweger should dominate (as Julianne Moore and Brie Larson did). And if there’s any place the fuddy-duddy-ness of The Two Popes would be an asset, it’s here.
S. Actor: Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
[Al Pacino (The Irishman)]
S. Actress: Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
[Florence Pugh (Little Women)]
Director: Martin Scorsese (The Irishman)
[Sam Mendes (1917)]
Original Screenplay: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
[The Farewell]
Adapted Screenplay: The Irishman
[The Two Popes]
Animated Feature: Toy Story 4
[Frozen 2]
Breakthrough Performance: Paul Walter Hauser
[Florence Pugh]
Directorial Debut: Olivia Wilde (Booksmart)
[Joe Talbot (The Last Black Man in San Francisco)]
Foreign Language Film: Parasite
[Pain and Glory]
Documentary: American Factory
[Honeyland]
Ensemble: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
[Hustlers]
Re: National Board of Review
For a good bit, they were atypically off-beat choosing films like Her, A Most Violent Year, and Mad Max (which afternoon the moment seemed odd... everyone else followed suit). For the past few years, they’ve settled into an NPR-ish groove with Manchester by the Sea, The Post, and Green Book.
I’m predicting Jojo Rabbit, but if 1917’s fanboy-ish tweets are to be believed that could be a threat as well. I could also see Little Women (they’re old and missed the boat on Lady Bird).
Jonathan Pryce isn’t a bad guess for Best Actor.
Renee Zellweger winning for Judy seems like a good bet. If not her, Saoirse Ronan whose never won.
I would say Tom Hanks makes sense for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (which is also Best Picture possible as the audience of blue hairs i saw it with ate it up). But Hanks just won for The Post, and his previous award was for Forrest Gump. I still think he’s the likeliest winner but they don’t like repeat winners, so if not him perhaps Al Pacino who hasn’t won since 1973. Sam Rockwell also makes sense.
For Best Supporting Actress, I would guess Laura Dern for her body of work (Marriage Story doesn’t seem up their alley) or Annette Bening for The Report.
I’m predicting Jojo Rabbit, but if 1917’s fanboy-ish tweets are to be believed that could be a threat as well. I could also see Little Women (they’re old and missed the boat on Lady Bird).
Jonathan Pryce isn’t a bad guess for Best Actor.
Renee Zellweger winning for Judy seems like a good bet. If not her, Saoirse Ronan whose never won.
I would say Tom Hanks makes sense for A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (which is also Best Picture possible as the audience of blue hairs i saw it with ate it up). But Hanks just won for The Post, and his previous award was for Forrest Gump. I still think he’s the likeliest winner but they don’t like repeat winners, so if not him perhaps Al Pacino who hasn’t won since 1973. Sam Rockwell also makes sense.
For Best Supporting Actress, I would guess Laura Dern for her body of work (Marriage Story doesn’t seem up their alley) or Annette Bening for The Report.
"How's the despair?"
Re: National Board of Review
Even as longtime Eastwood fans, National Board of Review wasn't going to go near a film that got a 23% on Rotten Tomatoes. Also, I'm pretty sure that The Mule wasn't screened for early-rounds of critics voting last year.Big Magilla wrote: Also, their long love affair with Clint Eastwood seemed to be over last year when both The 15:17 to Paris and The Mule failed to register with them, so I wouldn't expect too much for Richard Jewell.
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Big Magilla
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Re: National Board of Review
I'm not so sure NBR will give its top prize to a Netflix film. Last year they listed Roma among their top ten films but didn't vote it any other prize. Best Foreign Language Film went to Cold War. Besides which, they don't like to give their top prize to gangster films. The Godfather lost to Cabaret, Godfather II to The Conversation (from the same director) and GoodFellas to Dances with Wolves.
If they do decide to go with a Netflix film, the awards body that gave their Best Film award to The Shoes of the Fisherman in 1968 might well be inclined to go with The Two Popes in 2019, a film that also allows them to do something else they like to do, give their Best Actor award to the film's two stars. On the other hand, they might do something they aren't inclined to do such as name a war film, in this case 1917, as the year's best.
Also, their long love affair with Clint Eastwood seemed to be over last year when both The 15:17 to Paris and The Mule failed to register with them, so I wouldn't expect too much for Richard Jewell.
I'm thinking:
BEST PICTURE: 1917
BEST DIRECTOR: Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
BEST ACTOR: Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
BEST ACTRESS: Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Al Pacino, The Irishman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Marriage Story
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Two Popes
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen II
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Lulu Wang, The Farewell
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Pain and Glory
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Apollo 11
BEST ENSEMBLE: Knives Out
If they do decide to go with a Netflix film, the awards body that gave their Best Film award to The Shoes of the Fisherman in 1968 might well be inclined to go with The Two Popes in 2019, a film that also allows them to do something else they like to do, give their Best Actor award to the film's two stars. On the other hand, they might do something they aren't inclined to do such as name a war film, in this case 1917, as the year's best.
Also, their long love affair with Clint Eastwood seemed to be over last year when both The 15:17 to Paris and The Mule failed to register with them, so I wouldn't expect too much for Richard Jewell.
I'm thinking:
BEST PICTURE: 1917
BEST DIRECTOR: Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
BEST ACTOR: Anthony Hopkins and Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes
BEST ACTRESS: Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Al Pacino, The Irishman
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Laura Dern, Marriage Story
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Marriage Story
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: The Two Popes
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen II
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Lulu Wang, The Farewell
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Pain and Glory
BEST DOCUMENTARY: Apollo 11
BEST ENSEMBLE: Knives Out
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anonymous1980
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National Board of Review
They announce December 3rd. What the hell, here are my predictions:
BEST PICTURE: The Irishman
BEST DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
BEST ACTRESS: Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-Won, Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 4
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Florence Pugh, Midsommar & Little Women (if two - Noah Jupe, Honey Boy)
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Pain & Glory
BEST DOCUMENTARY: American Factory
BEST ENSEMBLE: Knives Out
Top 10 Films:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Dolemite is My Name
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Parasite
Richard Jewell
TOP FOREIGN FILMS:
And Then We Danced
Beanpole
Invisible Life
Monos
Queen of Hearts
TOP DOCUMENTARIES:
For Sama
The Great Hack
Honeyland
One Child Nation
Tell Me Who I am
TOP INDEPENDENT FILMS:
Booksmart
Clemency
Her Smell
Honey Boy
The Last Black Man in San Francisco
The Lighthouse
Luce
Midsommar
Uncut Gems
Waves
BEST PICTURE: The Irishman
BEST DIRECTOR: Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
BEST ACTOR: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
BEST ACTRESS: Renee Zellweger, Judy
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Sam Rockwell, Richard Jewell
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-Won, Parasite
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Greta Gerwig, Little Women
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Toy Story 4
BREAKTHROUGH PERFORMANCE: Florence Pugh, Midsommar & Little Women (if two - Noah Jupe, Honey Boy)
BEST DIRECTORIAL DEBUT: Melina Matsoukas, Queen & Slim
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: Pain & Glory
BEST DOCUMENTARY: American Factory
BEST ENSEMBLE: Knives Out
Top 10 Films:
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Bombshell
Dolemite is My Name
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Parasite
Richard Jewell
TOP FOREIGN FILMS:
And Then We Danced
Beanpole
Invisible Life
Monos
Queen of Hearts
TOP DOCUMENTARIES:
For Sama
The Great Hack
Honeyland
One Child Nation
Tell Me Who I am
TOP INDEPENDENT FILMS:
Booksmart
Clemency
Her Smell
Honey Boy
The Last Black Man in San Francisco
The Lighthouse
Luce
Midsommar
Uncut Gems
Waves
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Mon Dec 02, 2019 12:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.