2020 Oscar Predictions

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Sabin
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Precious Doll wrote
Can't say I'm surprised at hearing that. So many versions of the book have been made over the years and most people have their favourites and probably don't care to see yet another adaptation. I'm in that group as I'm a big fan of Kate Hepburn and June Allyson versions. Still, after seeing the trailer for Greta Gerwig's version a couple of time had piped up my interest.
Mark Harris on Twitter:
Men on Little Women: Oh my God, ANOTHER one? Didn't they just did this in 1994?
Men on Marvel: when is chapter 24 coming, I can't wait forever

I know that's not the mood of this board but he's right. Millennials and Gen Z were barely old enough for the 1994 one. That was largely for Gen X audiences and Elder Millennials (like myself). It's beyond time for one. I have very high hopes and can't wait to watch it.
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

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Sabin wrote:
- We're seeing some reports that Academy members are somewhat reticent to check out Little Women. That isn't a good sign. I'm taking a more nuanced approach than chalking it up to sexism. I think some voters have just reached their bandwidth. Gerwig has a few opportunities to bounce back but it might actually be out.
Can't say I'm surprised at hearing that. So many versions of the book have been made over the years and most people have their favourites and probably don't care to see yet another adaptation. I'm in that group as I'm a big fan of Kate Hepburn and June Allyson versions. Still, after seeing the trailer for Greta Gerwig's version a couple of time had piped up my interest.
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Sabin
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Sabin »

A few observations. Of all the awards coming up, I'm most intrigued by the BAFTAs. A lot of these acting categories seem in flux (especially Best Supporting Actress) and I suspect our fourth and fifth place choices will be more apparent.

- We're seeing some reports that Academy members are somewhat reticent to check out Little Women. That isn't a good sign. I'm taking a more nuanced approach than chalking it up to sexism. I think some voters have just reached their bandwidth. Gerwig has a few opportunities to bounce back but it might actually be out.

- Despite the fact that it hasn't gotten any traction at the Globes or SAGs (it wasn't really expected to), I think Uncut Gems might have an outside shot at picking up a Best Picture nomination. There's a real enthusiasm for it. Also, The Safdies may be real outsiders but older directors may see something of themselves in them and they just signed to remake 48 Hours.

- Best Actor is more crowded than it's been in years. Usually when that's the case (like in 2014 and 2013 as the most recent examples), the Academy votes for the most widely predicted candidates and the fifth spot goes to a coattails nominations (Bale for American Hustle, Cooper for American Sniper... bet Hauser wishes Richard Jewell was still called American Nightmare). This year, the most widely predicted seem to be DiCaprio, Driver, Phoenix, and some combination of Bale, Banderas, Egerton, or Pryce. A coattails nomination this year would favor Robert De Niro or (if it makes the Picture cut) Adam Sandler.

- Best Supporting Actress may be up in flux but Best Supporting Actor is an interesting one for me. The only two things we seem to know for sure is Pesci and Pitt will be in there. If there's room for a second actor from The Irishman, then Pacino has a good shot as well. They both have Globe and SAG nominations, and they're in a popular movie. That's three. Then there are two performances in small Best Picture hopefuls that don't look like they'll go all the way: Tom Hanks (globe & SAG) and Anthony Hopkins (globe). I wonder how many voters are passionate about these films or performances? The likely beneficiaries could be Willem DaFoe or Song Kang-ho.
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by jack »

Sabin, should Glasgow from Wild Rose net a nomination, it’ll be for Mary Steenburgen. It is an incredible song.
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Sabin »

May as well give this a go...

Unknowingly, it appears I'm predicting 11 nominations for Joker.
- 10 for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
- 7 for 1917
- 7 for The Irishman
- 7 for Marriage Story
- 6 for Little Women
- 6 for Parasite
- 3 for Jojo Rabbit

BEST PICTURE
1917
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

BEST ACTRESS
Cynthia Ervio, Harriet
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem DaFoe, The Lighthouse
Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Shuzhen Zhao, The Farewell

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
The Two Popes

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1917
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glasgow” (Wild Rose) (btw, I haven't seen Wild Rose... this song is incredible)
“I’m Gonna Love Me Again” (Rocketman)
“Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2)
“Stand Up” (Harriet)
“Sundown” (Western Stars)

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
Atlantics [Senegal]
Les Miserables [France]
Pain & Glory [Spain]
Parasite [South Korea]
Tel Aviv on Fire [Luxembourg]

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen 2
How to Train Your Dragon: Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Missing Link
Toy Story 4

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire

BEST FILM EDITING
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Parasite

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
Joker
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
The Two Popes

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Dolemite is My Name
Downton Abbey
Little Women
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

BEST MAKEUP
Bombshell
Downton Abbey
Joker
Judy
Rocketman

BEST SOUND MIXING
1917
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Rocketman

BEST SOUND EDITING
1917
Ad Astra
Ford v Ferrari
Joker
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1917
Avengers: Endgame
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
Last edited by Sabin on Wed Dec 11, 2019 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Sabin
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Is Ford v. Ferrari Original or Adapted? It's listed as Original on GoldDerby. I think it might be "Based on an Article" just like Gangs of New York was "Based on [that Herbert Asbury Book]."

What about The Farewell?
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

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PICTURE
1917
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
The Farewell
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Parasite
The Two Popes

ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen II
Klaus
Missing Link
The Swallows of Kabul
Toy Story 4

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory
The Cave
For Sama
Honeyland
One Child Nation

INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
France, Les Miserables
Russia, Beanpole
South Korea, Parasite
Spain, Pain and Glory
United Kingdom, The Boy Who Harnessed the Wind

DIRECTOR
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

ACTOR
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Jonathan Pryce, The Two Popes

ACTRESS
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Jamie Foxx, Just Mercy
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
John Lithgow, Bombshell
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Annette Bening, The Report
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Margot Robbie, Bombshell
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Meryl Streep, Little Women

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood
Pain & Glory
Parasite
The Two Popes

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Little Women

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
A Hidden Life
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

BEST EDITING
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Marriage Story
Parasite

PRODUCTION DESIGN
1917
Cats
The Irishman
Little Women
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

COSTUME DESIGN
Aladdin
Dolemite Is My Name
Harriet
The Irishman
Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood

SCORE
1917
Ford v. Ferrari
A Hidden Life
Little Women
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

SONG
“Glasgow” from Wild Rose
“Into the Unknown” from Frozen II
“Love Me Again” from Rocketman
“Spirit” from The Lion King
“Stand Up” from Harriet

SOUND EDITING
1917
Avengers: End Game
Ford v. Ferrari
The Irishman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

SOUND MIXING
1917
Cats
Ford v. Ferrari
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
Bombshell
Hellboy
Judy
Rocketman
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Endgame
Gemini Man
The Irishman
The Lion King
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

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FilmFan720 wrote:
anonymous1980 wrote: BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth Carter, Dolemite is My Name
Paul Tazewell, Harriet
Sandy Powell and Christopher Petersen, The Irishman
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
This seems like a REALLY modern line-up, three late twentieth century, and two mid-nineteenth century. Then I looked at the last few years, and realized this is a trend:

Still, are there any contenders here that are more "traditional" period pieces? The King? Aladdin? Ophelia?

Maybe we are just entering a period where the 1960s is far enough in the past that it counts!
As I was watching The Irishman, I was thinking, wow, this really looks period to me, which is weird when it's a time you remember living though.

But, note: when The Godfather came out, everyone marveled at the spectacular period recreation. The period -- beginning 1945 -- was only 27 years earlier. The Irishman ranges from 60 years earlier at the start to 45 when the main story climaxes.

I do, though, wonder if people are sleeping on Aladdin here, which has flamboyant costumes as far as the eye can see. Beauty and the Beast was nominated, on much the same basis. (Unless people are just finally sick unto death of Disney reboots.)
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

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FilmFan720 wrote:
anonymous1980 wrote: BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth Carter, Dolemite is My Name
Paul Tazewell, Harriet
Sandy Powell and Christopher Petersen, The Irishman
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
This seems like a REALLY modern line-up, three late twentieth century, and two mid-nineteenth century. Then I looked at the last few years, and realized this is a trend:

Still, are there any contenders here that are more "traditional" period pieces? The King? Aladdin? Ophelia?

Maybe we are just entering a period where the 1960s is far enough in the past that it counts!
Downton Abbey?
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by OscarGuy »

Early word from those who've seen it is that it's terrific.
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Sabin »

anonymous1980 wrote
1917 (Universal/Dreamworks) Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne-Ann Tenggren, Callum McDougall and Brian Oliver, producers
Why are you so confident about 1917? If anything, his track record suggests below the line noms.
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by FilmFan720 »

anonymous1980 wrote: BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth Carter, Dolemite is My Name
Paul Tazewell, Harriet
Sandy Powell and Christopher Petersen, The Irishman
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
This seems like a REALLY modern line-up, three late twentieth century, and two mid-nineteenth century. Then I looked at the last few years, and realized this is a trend:

Still, are there any contenders here that are more "traditional" period pieces? The King? Aladdin? Ophelia?

Maybe we are just entering a period where the 1960s is far enough in the past that it counts!
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Precious Doll »

I hope you are wrong on Avengers: Endgame - really don't fancy watching that :(
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Re: 2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by Reza »

anonymous1980 wrote:BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
Yorick Le Saux, Little Women
Roger A. Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
I think Pawel Pogorzelski has a strong chance of getting a nod for Midsommar.

And 8 nods for Little Women seems rather excessive. Many prognosticators also seem to be on the same bandwagon wanting a big haul for Greta Gerwig.
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2020 Oscar Predictions

Post by anonymous1980 »

I've revised and finalized it.


BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

Ford v. Ferrari (20th Century Fox) Peter Chernin, Jenno Topping and James Mangold, producers.

The Irishman (Netflix) Martin Scorsese, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Robert De Niro and Jane Rosenthal, producers

Jojo Rabbit (Fox Searchlight) Carthew Neal and Taika Waititi, producers.

Joker (Warner Bros.) Todd Phillips, Bradley Cooper, and Emma Tillinger Koskoff, producers.

Little Women (Columbia Pictures) Amy Pascal, producer.

Marriage Story (Netflix) David Heyman and Noah Baumbach, producers.

1917 (Universal/Dreamworks) Sam Mendes, Pippa Harris, Jayne‐Ann Tenggren and Callum McDougall, producers

Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood (Columbia Pictures) David Heyman, Shannon McIntosh and Quentin Tarantino, producers

Parasite (Neon) Bong Joon-ho and Kwak Sin-ae, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Greta Gerwig, Little Women
Sam Mendes, 1917
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho, Parasite

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Antonio Banderas, Pain & Glory
Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Adam Driver, Marriage Story
Taron Egerton, Rocketman
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Awkwafina, The Farewell
Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story
Saoirse Ronan, Little Women
Charlize Theron, Bombshell
Renee Zellweger, Judy

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Al Pacino, The Irishman
Joe Pesci, The Irishman
Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Song Kang-ho, Parasite

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Laura Dern, Marriage Story
Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit
Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
Florence Pugh, Little Women
Margot Robbie, Bombshell

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Lulu Wang, The Farewell
Rian Johnson, Knives Out
Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Bong Joon-ho and Han Jin-won, Parasite

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Steven Zaillian, The Irishman (based on the book I Heard You Paint Houses by Charles Brandt)
Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit (based on the novel Caging Skies by Christine Leunens)
Todd Phillips and Scott Silver, Joker (based on the DC comics)
Greta Gerwig, Little Women (based on the novel by Louisa Mae Alcott)
Anthony McCarten, The Two Popes (based on his play)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Frozen II (Disney) Jennifer Lee, Chris Buck and Peter Del Vecho.
I Lost My Body (Xilam Animation) Jeremy Clapin and Marc du Pontavice
Klaus (Aniventure/Netflix) Sergio Pablos
Missing Link (Laika) Chris Butler, Ariane Sutner and Travis Knight
Toy Story 4 (PIXAR) Josh Cooley, Jonas Rivera and Mark Nielsen

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Beanpole, Russia
Les Miserables, France
Pain & Glory, Spain
Parasite, South Korea
Those Who Remained, Hungary

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
American Factory (Higher Ground/Netflix) Steve Bognar and Julie Reichert
Apollo 11 (CNN Films) Todd Douglas Miller
For Sama (PBS Films) Waad Al-Khateab and Edward Watts
Honeyland (Dogwoof) Tamara Kotevska, Ljubomir Stefanov and Atanas Georgiev
One Child Nation (Amazon) Nanfu Wang and Jialing Zhang

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Rodrigo Prieto, The Irishman
Lawrence Sher, Joker
Jarin Blaschke, The Lighthouse
Roger A. Deakins, 1917
Robert Richardson, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Michael McCusker and Andrew Buckland, Ford v. Ferrari
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Irishman
Jeff Groth, Joker
Fred Raskin, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Jinmo Wang, Parasite

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bob Shaw (production design) & Regina Graves (set decoration), The Irishman
Ra Vincent (production design) & Nora Sopkova (set decoration), Jojo Rabbit
Jess Gonchor (production design) & Claire Kaufman (set decoration), Little Women
Barbara Ling (production design) & Nancy Haigh (set decoration), Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Ha-jun Lee (production design), Parasite

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth Carter, Dolemite is My Name
Sandy Powell and Christopher Petersen, The Irishman
Jacqueline Durran, Little Women
Arianne Phillips, Once Upon a Time in...Hollywood
Julian Day, Rocketman

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Marco Beltrami and Buck Sanders, Ford v. Ferrari
Michael Giacchino, Jojo Rabbit
Hildur Guðnadóttir, Joker
Alexandre Desplat, Little Women
Thomas Newman, 1917

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"Glasgow (No Place Like Home)", Wild Rose; Mary Steenburgen, Caitlin Smith and Kate York (music & lyrics)
"(I'm Gonna) Love Me Again", Rocketman; Elton John (music) & Bernie Taupin (lyrics)
"I'm Standing With You", Breakthrough; Diane Warren (music & lyrics)
"Into the Unknown", Frozen II; Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez (music & lyrics)
"Spirit", The Lion King; Ilya Salmanzadeh, Timothy Lee McKenzie and Beyoncé Knowles-Carter (music & lyrics)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta and Doc Kane, Avengers: Endgame
Paul Massey, David Giammarco and Steven Morrow, Ford v. Ferrari
Tom Fleischman and Tod A. Maitland, The Irishman
Scott Millan, Mark Taylor and Stuart Wilson, 1917
Andy Nelson, Stuart Wilson and Ben Burtt, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Daniel Laurie and Shannon Mills, Avengers: Endgame
Donald Sylvester and David Giammarco, Ford v. Ferrari
Philip Stockton, The Irishman
Oliver Tarney and Michael Fentum, 1917
David Acord and Matthew Wood, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port and Daniel Sudick, Avengers: Endgame
Pablo Helman, Mike F. Hedayati, Ed Bruce and Jiwoong Kim, The Irishman
Robert Legato, James Rothwell, Stephen Enticott and Andrew R. Jones, The Lion King
Guillaume Rocheron, Dominic Tuohy, Greg Butler and Pier Lefebvre, 1917
Roger Guyett, Marc Varisco, Paul Kavanagh and Dominic Tuohy, Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Kazuhiro Tsuji, Vivian Baker and Anne Morgan, Bombshell
Nicki Ledermann and Michael Marino, Joker
Jeremy Woodhead and Joseph Koniak, Judy
Tristan Versluis and Naomi Donne, 1917
Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou and Lizzie Georgiou, Rocketman
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Fri Jan 10, 2020 12:57 am, edited 3 times in total.
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