Categories One-by-One: Visual Effects

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Sabin
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Re: Categories One-by-One: Visual Effects

Post by Sabin »

Yeah, um... I don't know.

I suppose we could wait for the Visual Effects Society to announce their winners except they've been correct only 5 of the past 9 times. Three of their misses were Planet of the Apes films which are not in competition this year. The BAFTAs are a little better predicting 6 of the past 9 wins, although they could end up giving it to Black Panther.

Yeah, not sure. I'm inclined to say that there really isn't a precedent that applies to this race. The logic of 2017 would suggest that the most nominations wins and it's really about creating a world rather than one specific, memorable effect. The logic of 2015 would suggest that the most nominations doesn't matter, creating a world isn't more important than creating one, specific memorable effect. Meanwhile, the logic of 2016 would suggest that the most nominations don't matter and also we're down to nominate cartoons. Who does any of this favor?

It could go any which way. So.. what did they see? What did they like? Sure, they saw First Man but I'm really not sure how much they liked it and also one does have to wait until the first half hour to get to the effect. Christopher Robin is probably more in the race than people think simply by virtue of being a family film that voters can watch with their children and for being the sole family film in the race (I also have it in my Oscar pool). But as of now, I'm just guessing Avengers Infinity War based on the fact that Thanos is a pretty remarkable CGI creation.
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Mister Tee
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Categories One-by-One: Visual Effects

Post by Mister Tee »

For many categories, I’ll want to wait on BAFTA results to provide the most complete information – but in this category, I’m prepared to go ahead now.

The nominees:

Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: a Star Wars Story

Instant disclaimer: Three of the nominees, I’ve seen only the small screen, which may affect my attitude.

I feel safe in declaring Solo: a Star Wars Story utterly out of the race. If voters didn’t go for The Force Awakens, at the height of reawakened Lucasfilm nostalgia, there’s no way they’ll salute this critical/financial flop. (Side issue: how long can the studio keep strip-mining this franchise? Is there that much market for “this is where (X) met (Y) and how they got (Z)”?)

I made it clear I didn’t much care for (non-nominee here) Mary Poppins Returns; I might have been even more down on it had I known that Disney had made virtually the same movie a few months earlier with Christopher Robin. Again, strip-mining: going back to old classics, aging the child characters, turning them into fuddy-duddies, and having the fantasy characters show them the way back to childhood. As with the Mr. Rogers movie, I’m handicapped by being too old to have ever experienced the Disney-Pooh stuff (never read the Milne books, either), so this all left me pretty cold. I guess you can’t rule out the walking/talking puppets making a play for the win – Babe won on roughly similar achievement, and this movie was fair widely seen. But I wonder if this is what present-day voters even think of as visual effects.

I note a fair number of people coming out for Avengers Part Whatever, but I really don’t see it. As BJ has educated us, Marvel movies have rarely done well even at nomination level in tech categories, and have not, beyond Spider-Man 2, won in this one category where they do get cited. There’s also general reluctance to give this prize to late entries in a series (even the exceptional work in Rise of the Planet of the Apes failed to win). I think Marvel’s chance at winning this slot disappeared when Black Panther failed to make the cut.

I’ve been high on Ready Player One for this prize since I saw it, and that may be clouding my judgment. But I think, stacked up against this set of nominees, it has at least a decent chance of winning. The effects are pretty impressive and omnipresent; the film is an original, not another entry in a franchise; if not a blockbuster, it certainly did respectable business; and Spielberg’s movies have of course done extremely well in this category over the years (there was a long 80s/90s stretch when Spielberg-Lucas-Zemeckis-Cameron accounted for just about all the visual effects wins). I think this is one of two films most likely to win the prize.

The other is First Man, which has the advantage of being the most grown-up film of the group – the only one that at least theoretically could have been in the best picture discussion. This edge was enough to give Interstellar its win four years ago, and could be enough for Chazelle’s film now. Offsetting negatives: the film’s well-publicized financial face-plant; a failure to score seeming sure-thing nods for score and cinematography; and a general sense that, prior to the climactic half-hour, there weren’t enough effects to fully compete.

The reason I pass on BAFTA as predictor in this category is 1) their different set of nominees include Black Panther, and they might go its way (as the Broadcasters did, in a failed attempt to PREDICT EVERY AWARD); and 2) they gave First Man a far more impressive seven nominations, including screenplay/supporting actress, so, even if they do choose it, it may not carry over to be indicative of AMPAS sentiment.

Obligatory warning: when a category doesn’t seem clearly whittled down to a front-runner and an underdog – which I think is the case here, even if I favor some films over others -- votes can break any which way and lead to actual surprises. That’s how I believe Ex Machina was able to win this category three years ago. So, don’t rule out something weird. Like Christopher Robin.
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