Final Nominations Predictions

[Greg]

Most best film nominees make some showing for writing/directing, or else show down-ballot strength. I note even many of the people predicting the film give very little supporting evidence: beyond Malek, just a tech nod or two. That, to me, doth not a best picture nominee make, even in a crappy year.

This has often not been the case during the era of expanded Best Picture nominations. The Blind Side, The Post, Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close, and Selma all secured Best Picture nominations while receiving only one other nomination; Best Actress for The Blind Side and The Post; Best Supporting Actor for Extremely Loud And Incredibly Close; and, Best Song for Selma.

[Okri]

Best Picture
BlacKKKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

It's probably folly to predict this few nominees, but I kinda want to. This seems like a year where if it could happen, it would happen here. I mean, it would require a collection of films that truly feel ahead of the rest of the films without feeling truly loved.

Best Director
Bradley Cooper
Alfonso Cuaron
Barry Jenkins
Spike Lee
Yorgos Lathimos

I'm hopedicting Jenkins through and through.

Best Actor
Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper
Ethan Hawke
Rami Malek
Viggo Mortensen

Best Actress
Glenn Close
Toni Collette
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy

If Stone was campaigned as lead, she'd be here somewhat easily, I think.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams
Claire Foy
Regina King
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali
Adam Driver
Sam Elliot
Richard E Grant
Sam Rockwell

Best Original Screenplay
Cold War
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
BlacKKKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace

Best Foreign Language Film
Burning
Cold War
The Guilty
Never Look Away
Shoplifters

Documentary Feature
Free Solo
RBG
The Silence of Others
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor

Best Animated Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Best Film Editing
BlacKKKlansman
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma

Best Art Direction
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts 2
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins

Best Costume Design
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsodi
The Favourite
Mary Poppins
Mary Queen of Scots

Best Make-up
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice

Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
First Man
Ready Player One

Best Original Score
BlacKKKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
A Quiet Place

Best Original Song
The Hate U Give
Mary Poppins
Mary Poppins
RBG
A Star is Born

Best Sound Design
Black Panther
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star is Born

Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born

[HarryGoldfarb]

Not necessarily a prediction (I'll skipp the whole exercise of predicting in every single category) but I'll be tremendously happy if Thom Yorke's "Suspirium" gets a nod... when I first posted about the shortlisted songs I had heard by the time they were announced, I didn't catch it. So I stand corrected: this would be my personal choice.

As weird as it may seem to some, it won't be unprecedent: it'll be the hipster choice of the year. And to some extent, it'll be in the same vein as previous indie's nominees Sufjan Stevens, Aimee Mann and Elliot Smith.

Plus, in an almost not related note, Greenwood received a very deserved nod last year.

So Radiohead's appeal is not just for the new Academy members, as they've been around for more than a while... Yorke's chances might be (hopefully) better than we think.

Suspiria was also shortlisted for Makeup and Hairstyling (if this means something)...

Talk about some random previous-day wishful thinking...

[criddic3]

PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

ACTRESS
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
Vice

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor?

ANIMATED FEATURE
Early Man
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars," Black Panther
"Revelation," Boy Erased
"Girl in the Movies," Dumplin'
"Shallow," A Star is Born
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic," Mary Poppins Returns

ORIGINAL SCORE
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Bohemian Rhapsody
Stan & Ollie
Vice

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born

FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star is Born
Widows

SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born

SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible—Fallout
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

[Sonic Youth]

Best Picture

BlackKklansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favorite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Best Director

Bradley Cooper
Alfonso Cuaron
Peter Farrelly
Spike Lee
Adam Mckay

Best Actor

Christian Bale
Bradley Cooper
Ethan Hawke
Rami Malek
Viggo Mortensen

Best Actress

Emily Blunt
Glenn Close
Olivia Colman
Lady Gaga
Melissa McCarthy

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali
Timothee Chalamet
Adam Driver
Sam Elliott
Richard E. Grant

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams
Regina King
Margot Robbie
Emma Stone
Rachel Weisz

Best Original Screenplay

Eighth Grade
The Favorite
First Reformend
Green Book
Roma

Best Adapted Screenplay

BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born

[Franz Ferdinand]

Top categories.

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favorite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favorite
Spike Lee, BlackKklansman

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
John David Washington, BlackKklansman

BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favorite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Steven Yeun, Burning

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favorite
Rachel Weisz, The Favorite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eight Grade
The Favorite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlackKklansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk

[MaxWilder]

It's just that, for reasons of genre (Collette), out-there-ness (Kidman) or disappointing grosses (Davis, Roberts), none of their films are down-the-middle enough for one of them to be an obvious pick over the other.

"Thinning" was just my shortcut for saying that There are three past winners and one nominee in that list, so no one will scoff if one of them makes the cut.

[Sabin]

Mister Tee wrote
And, to Max's point: I'm not sure I'd describe the actress field as thinning. There are plenty of strong possibilities for that fifth spot if you're just going by reviews: Collette, Kidman, Davis, even Julia Roberts all received nomination-level notices -- were any of them to make it, I doubt they'd be seen as desperation-level picks (like, say, much of the 2009 slate). It's just that, for reasons of genre (Collette), out-there-ness (Kidman) or disappointing grosses (Davis, Roberts), none of their films are down-the-middle enough for one of them to be an obvious pick over the other.

That's a good point. The real issue is that the precursors have just failed to point us in the right direction of who the fifth nominee will be. If they all lined up behind Viola Davis or Nicole Kidman, we'd think "Okay that makes sense." But they didn't. So we're held in suspense. But there's no shortage of contenders.

[Mister Tee]

Anyone else feel like The Favourite kind of messed up their placement this year. With that fifth slot open, it seems like Weisz and Stone could have both picked up Lead Actress nominations, while Colman would be our frontrunner in Supporting Actress hands down.

I don't think Weisz was ever going to be placed in lead; the only questionable placements were Stone/Colman, and the studio opted to run them the opposite from how I would have. (I understand people have stop-watched screen-time and declared all three actresses as roughly alike, but Stone projects as protagonist far more than Weisz or Colman do.) If they'd gone my way, Stone would be nominated lead and Colman/Weisz would both be in support, with Colman the obvious choice the same way Octavia Spencer was when in tandem with Chastain for The Help.

Besides: studios at this point almost never go for double-leads; trying to do so with borderline supporting performances seems suicidal.

And, to Max's point: I'm not sure I'd describe the actress field as thinning. There are plenty of strong possibilities for that fifth spot if you're just going by reviews: Collette, Kidman, Davis, even Julia Roberts all received nomination-level notices -- were any of them to make it, I doubt they'd be seen as desperation-level picks (like, say, much of the 2009 slate). It's just that, for reasons of genre (Collette), out-there-ness (Kidman) or disappointing grosses (Davis, Roberts), none of their films are down-the-middle enough for one of them to be an obvious pick over the other.

[Sabin]

See you guys tomorrow.

BEST PICTURE
BLACK PANTHER
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
VICE

BEST DIRECTOR
BLACKKKLANSMAN / Spike Lee
THE FAVOURITE / Yorgos Lanthimos
GREEN BOOK / Peter Farrelly
ROMA / Alfonso Cuaron
A STAR IS BORN / Bradley Cooper
Comment: McKay could sneak in. I just have a hard time seeing them pass over Lanthimos.

BEST ACTOR
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY / Rami Malek
FIRST REFORMED / Ethan Hawke
GREEN BOOK / Viggo Mortensen
A STAR IS BORN / Bradley Cooper
VICE / Christian Bale
Comment: I think John David Washington's contributions to BlacKkKlansman are possibly undervalued. His charismatic deadpan ballasts the film. That said, I have to believe that Hawke's fans are passionate enough to put him over the top. The only thing that makes me think Washington is the chances of him presenting with Denzel would be too adorable for the gods to pass up.

BEST ACTRESS
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Melissa McCarthy
THE FAVOURITE / Olivia Colman
A PRIVATE WAR / Rosamund Pike
A STAR IS BORN / Lady Gaga
THE WIFE / Glenn Close
Comment: No idea for fifth. It could be Aparicio for Roma. I have such a hard time seeing Emily Blunt take it for Mary Poppins Returns. I'd have a much better time seeing Viola Davis for Widows if the film didn't stiff. I actually really love the traction for Elsie Fisher for Eighth Grade. It's a very meaningful performance and she'd be my pick. If passion for Cold War builds, then Joanna Kulig could make it in. I'm picking Rosamund Pike for two reasons: 1) it would be a boring choice, and 2) I have A Private War in my draft and it's been overperforming. Go A Private War (whatever that is), Go!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEAUTIFUL BOY / Timothee Chalamet
BLACKKKLANSMAN / Adam Driver
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Richard E. Grant
GREEN BOOK / Mahershala Ali
VICE / Sam Rockwell
Comment: Elliott's misty eyes vs. Rockwell's wisp of a role. I'm just banking on A Star is Born continuing to fade, whereas Rockwell is the center of every Vice ad.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
THE FAVOURITE / Emma Stone
THE FAVOURITE / Rachel Weisz
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK / Regina King
A QUIET PLACE / Emily Blunt
VICE / Amy Adams
Comment: This race could end up looking nothing like we expect.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
EIGHTH GRADE
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
VICE

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BLACKKKLANSMAN
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME?
THE DEATH OF STALIN
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
A STAR IS BORN

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
BLACKKKLANSMAN
FIRST MAN
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
ISLE OF DOGS
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
Comment: Carter Burwell is doing well so he could get in for Buster Scruggs. But mainly I'm passing on Black Panther because I think passion for its ersatz African beats are a bit overstated. It's distinct... for a Marvel movie.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BLACK PANTHER / “All the Stars”
DUMPLIN / “Girl in the Movies”
MARY POPPINS RETURNS / “The Place Where All The Lost Things Go”
RBG / “I’ll Fight”
A STAR IS BORN / “Shallow”

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
CAPERNAUM / Lebanon
COLD WAR / Poland
NEVER LOOK AWAY / Germany
ROMA / Mexico
SHOPLIFTERS / Japan
Comment: Having seen Burning, I think it's too weird.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
DR. SEUSS’ THE GRINCH
INCREDIBLES 2
ISLE OF DOGS
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
COLD WAR
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
Comment: I'm going with a nom for Libatique because he's already a nominee for Black Swan.

BEST FILM EDITING
BLACKKKLANSMAN
FIRST MAN
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
VICE
Comment: I picked BlacKkKlansman over Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born because it just seems kind of right that it ends up with six nominations. I could see either of those two up though. My big question about Bohemian Rhapsody is if it's just cut too frenetically, like a sequence. Sometimes that's a detriment to these people.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
ROMA
Comment: I'm not going to pick Black Panther. I just don't think the production design of it is that inspired, whereas Crazy Rich Asians has eye-poppingly lavish homes.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BLACK PANTHER
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
THE FAVOURITE
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS

BEST MAKEUP
BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
VICE
Comment: Well, this is a roll of the dice. I'm including Bohemian Rhapsody only because the team behind Malek's teeth have been nominated quite frequently.

BEST SOUND MIXING
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN

BEST SOUND EDITING
BLACK PANTHER
FIRST MAN
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE – FALLOUT
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
FIRST MAN
READY PLAYER ONE
SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
Comment: Yup, holding strong that Black Panther won't make it in.

[MaxWilder]

Anyone else feel like The Favourite kind of messed up their placement this year. With that fifth slot open, it seems like Weisz and Stone could have both picked up Lead Actress nominations, while Colman would be our frontrunner in Supporting Actress hands down.

They were in a tough spot. Weisz and Stone are inseparable, and historically it's been easier to get double supporting noms than double leads. (They couldn't have known in advance that the lead actress field would be so thin.) They chose to get three guaranteed nominations. In the other scenario, Colman would have won supporting but it's not guaranteed that both Stone and Weisz would have been nominated.

[FilmFan720]

Anyone else feel like The Favourite kind of messed up their placement this year. With that fifth slot open, it seems like Weisz and Stone could have both picked up Lead Actress nominations, while Colman would be our frontrunner in Supporting Actress hands down.

[MaxWilder]

Who will be this year's surprise/unexpected acting nominees? (I don't know if those are the right words; some of these "surprises" have been spoiled by SAG nominations. Wild cards?) I went over the predictions so far and picked out your guesses.

Actor: John David Washington

This seems to be a 6-man race (Gosling faded long ago and I don't think Dafoe has a prayer), with JDW a decent bet to top Ethan Hawke for the 5th slot.

Actress: Yalitza Aparicio, Toni Collette, Elsie Fisher, Nicole Kidman, Viola Davis, Emily Blunt

The 5th spot has been a revolving door. (Merry-go-round? Musical chairs? I forget the right cliché here.) Hereditary has been on Amazon Prime (free) for a while, which might have gotten the attention of voters catching up on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. Only Aparicio is in a BP contender, so I think she'll make it.

Supp. actor: none

Boring category. Four pretty-much-sure things and one guy named Sam. Or both Sams but no Timmy. (MBJ seems to have faded.) Whatever the lineup, Mahershala Ali will win a rare "Eh, Why Not?" Oscar, seemingly uncontested. No one else feels like a winner. He has the benefit/advantage of a weekly for-your-consideration ad in the form of True Detective.

Mister Tee mentioned Steven Yeun. You know...I can kiiind of see him having a shot. People loved him as Glen on The Walking Dead. I've never even watched that show! Just through osmosis I know his character and how popular he was.

Supp. actress: Margot Robbie, Emily Blunt, Nicole Kidman

The one interesting category. There are only three open slots; Stone's and Weisz's names are carved in stone, glazed and encased in lucite. Regina King will be either a lock to win...or a shocking omission. Amy Adams is a safe bet (but not a sure thing). Claire Foy is on shaky ground.

I think Robbie is in. (A surprise because the film came & went; not a surprise because of her SAG nom.) Her meet & greet game must be unstoppable. I can see Blunt replacing Adams, too. If Linda Cardellini shows up out of nowhere...start drinking immediately.

[FilmFan720]

BEST PICTURE
BlackKklansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider Man: Into the Multi-Verse

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKKKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlackKklansman

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlackKklansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If the Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKKKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born

BEST SCORE
Black Panther
BlackKklansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs

BEST SONG
All the Stars, Black Panther
Girl in the Movies, Dumplin’
I’ll Fight, RBG
Shallow, A Star Is Born
Trip a Little Light Fantastic, Mary Poppins Returns

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Black Panther
Cold War
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST FILM EDITING
BlackKklansman
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Mary Queen of Scots

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

BEST SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
First Man
A Quiet Place
Ready Player One
Roma

BEST SOUND MIXING
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Welcome to Marwen

BEST MAKEUP
Border
Stan & Ollie
Vice

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Denmark; The Guilty
Germany; Never Look Away
Lebanon; Capharnaum
Mexico; Roma
Poland; Cold War

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Crime + Punishment
Dark Money
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT
‘63 Boycott
End Game
Lifeboat
Women of the Gulag
Zion

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Bao
Bilby
Late Afternoon
One Small Step
Weekends

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
Caroline
Fauve
Icare
May Day
Wale

[Big Magilla]

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

If less than ten, First Man, If Beale Street Could Talk and Black Panther are the most vulnerable in that order.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Willem Dafoe, Ryan Gosling, Lucas Hedges and John David Washington are all possible, but these are the most likely.

BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Blunt is the big question here, with Yalitza Aparicio, Viola Davis and Julia Roberts all possible in her place.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Robert Forster gave the year's best old guy performance in What They Had, but nobody saw it, so Sam Elliott will get that spot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Foy, Kidman and King all gave terrific performances, but will they nominate three mothers? Maybe, but it's just as likely Amy Adams and/or Margot Robbie will replace one or two of them.

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Peter Farrelly, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Lanthimos is the most likely of the non-DGA nominees to get a nod, hopefully at the expense of Adam McKay but I wouldn't bet on it.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Anything but that horrid Eight Grade nonsense.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace

The one big category where A Star Is Born is most vulnerable.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

A strong lineup that would seem to be hard to beat.