My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

For the films of 2018
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Sabin
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by Sabin »

Just a little end of the year speculation. This year is already so dispiriting....
(UPDATED: 1/17/19)

BEST PICTURE
BLACK PANTHER
BLACKKKLANSMAN
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
GREEN BOOK
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN
VICE

BEST DIRECTOR
BLACKKKLANSMAN / Spike Lee
THE FAVOURITE / Yorgos Lanthimos
GREEN BOOK / Peter Farrelly
ROMA / Alfonso Cuaron
A STAR IS BORN / Bradley Cooper

BEST ACTOR
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY / Rami Malek
FIRST REFORMED / Ethan Hawke
GREEN BOOK / Viggo Mortensen
A STAR IS BORN / Bradley Cooper
VICE / Christian Bale

BEST ACTRESS
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Melissa McCarthy
THE FAVOURITE / Olivia Colman
A STAR IS BORN / Lady Gaga
WIDOWS / Viola Davis
THE WIFE / Glenn Close

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
BEAUTIFUL BOY / Timothee Chalamet
BLACKKKLANSMAN / Adam Driver
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Richard E. Grant
GREEN BOOK / Mahershala Ali
VICE / Sam Rockwell

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
THE FAVOURITE / Emma Stone
THE FAVOURITE / Rachel Weisz
FIRST MAN / Claire Foy
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK / Regina King
VICE / Amy Adams

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
EIGHTH GRADE / Bo Burnham
THE FAVOURITE / Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
GREEN BOOK / Nick Vallelonga, Brian Hayes Currie, Peter Farrelly
ROMA / Alfonso Cuaron
VICE / Adam McKay

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BLACKKKLANSMAN / Charlie Wachtel & David Rabinowitz and Kevin Willmott & Spike Lee
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? / Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
THE DEATH OF STALIN / Armando Iannucci, David Schneider, Ian Martin
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK / Barry Jenkins
LEAVE NO TRACE / Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS
FIRST MAN
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK
ISLE OF DOGS
MARY POPPINS RETURNS

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
BLACK PANTHER / “All the Stars”
BOY ERASED / “Revelation”
THE HATE U GIVE / “We Won’t Move”
MARY POPPINS RETURNS / A song
A STAR IS BORN / “Shallow”

BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM
BURNING / South Korea
COLD WAR / Poland
NEVER LOOK AWAY / Germany
ROMA / Mexico
SHOPLIFTERS / Japan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
DR. SEUSS’ THE GRINCH
INCREDIBLES 2
ISLE OF DOGS
RALPH BREAKS THE INTERNET
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
COLD WAR
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN

BEST FILM EDITING
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
GREEN BOOK
ROMA

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
CRAZY RICH ASIANS
THE FAVOURITE
FIRST MAN
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
ROMA

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
BLACK PANTHER
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
THE FAVOURITE
MARY POPPINS RETURNS
MARY, QUEEN OF SCOTS

BEST MAKEUP
BLACK PANTHER
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS
VICE

BEST SOUND MIXING
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY
FIRST MAN
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN

BEST SOUND EDITING
BLACK PANTHER
FIRST MAN
A QUIET PLACE
ROMA
A STAR IS BORN

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR
CHRISTOPHER ROBIN
FIRST MAN
READY PLAYER ONE
SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY
"How's the despair?"
anonymous1980
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by anonymous1980 »

flipp525 wrote:A Star is Born looks to be the biggest contender with Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, 2x Best Song, Best Cinematography, Best Sound/Editing - all nearing lock status.
A second Best Song nomination is out of the question since apparently, they're ONLY submitting "Shallow".
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rolotomasi99
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Most of my nominations match conventional wisdom, but I included a wild card in a few categories since Oscar sometimes likes to surprise us. :D

BEST PICTURE

A Star Is Born

Roma

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Vice

The Favourite

Green Book

Black Klansman

Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns

DIRECTING

Roma

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

A Star Is Born

Vice

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Favourite

Vice

Roma

Green Book

First Reformed

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

If Beale Street Could Talk

Can You Ever Forgive Me?

First Man

Black Klansman

The Death Of Stalin

LEAD ACTRESS

Glenn Close - The Wife

Melissa McCarthy - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Olivia Coleman - The Favourite

Stefani Germanotta - A Star Is Born

Saoirse Ronan - Mary Queen Of Scots

LEAD ACTOR

Christian Bale - Vice

Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born

Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody

Viggo Mortensen - Green Book

Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Claire Foy - First Man

Emma Stone - The Favourite

Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk

Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Timothée Chalamet - Beautiful Boy

Mahershala Ali - Green Book

Richard Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Sam Elliot - A Star Is Born

Sam Rockwell - Vice

FILM EDITING

First Man

A Star Is Born

Roma

Widows

Vice

CINEMATOGRAPHY

First Man

Roma

A Star Is Born

If Beale Street Could Talk

Cold War

ART DIRECTION

Mary Queen Of Scots

The Favourite

Mary Poppins Returns

First Man

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes Of Grindelwald

COSTUME DESIGN

Mary Queen Of Scots

The Favourite

Black Panther

Mary Poppins Returns

Bohemian Rhapsody

ORIGINAL SCORE

Mary Poppins Returns

First Man

If Beale Street Could Talk

Mary Queen Of Scots

At Eternity's Gate

SOUND MIXING

First Man

Black Panther

A Star Is Born

Bohemian Rhapsody

Mary Poppins Returns

SOUND EDITING

First Man

Black Panther

The Incredibles 2

A Star Is Born

A Quiet Place

VISUAL EFFECTS

Avengers

Black Panther

Solo

Ant Man And The Wasp

Ready Player One

MAKEUP

Suspiria

Mary Queen Of Scots

The Favourite
"When it comes to the subject of torture, I trust a woman who was married to James Cameron for three years."
-- Amy Poehler in praise of Zero Dark Thirty director Kathryn Bigelow
flipp525
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by flipp525 »

A Star is Born looks to be the biggest contender with Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, 2x Best Song, Best Cinematography, Best Sound/Editing - all nearing lock status.

Best Supporting Actor seems so amorphous that I could even see something like Andrew Dice Clay pulling in a nomination alongside virtually locked Sam Elliott in a kind of Joan Cusack in Working Girl kind of way.
"The mantle of spinsterhood was definitely in her shoulders. She was twenty five and looked it."

-Gone With the Wind by Margaret Mitchell
mlrg
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by mlrg »

As every year, here are my pre-precursos predictions:

BEST PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
Widows

BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS
Viola Davis, Widows
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Reza
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by Reza »

BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Rome
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Adam McKay, Vice
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Last edited by Reza on Fri Jan 18, 2019 2:27 pm, edited 11 times in total.
Big Magilla
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Re: My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by Big Magilla »

This seems easier to predict than the critics' awards this year.

As of the moment...

BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Boy Erased
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Outside chance: Black Panther

No one else is predicting it, but watch out for Mary Poppins Returns. The year-end box-office could be beyond anticipation.

BEST DIRECTOR
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

More or less what I expect the outcome to be.

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Outside chances: Willem Dafoe, At Eternity's Gate and Ryan Gosling, First Man

BEST ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Julia Roberts, This Is Ben

Outside chance: Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Outside chance: Robert Forster, What We Had

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Claire Foy, First Man
Nicole Kidman - Boy Erased
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Outside chances: Amy Adams, Vice and Linda Cardellini, Green Book
anonymous1980
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My first complete (pre-precursors) Oscar Predictions!

Post by anonymous1980 »

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Jordan Peele, Sean McKittrick, Raymond Mansfield and Shaun Redick, producers

Black Panther (Disney/Marvel) Kevin Feige, producer.

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) Yorgos Lanthimos, Ed Guiney, Ceci Dempsey and Lee Magiday, producers.

First Man (Universal Pictures) Marty Bowen and Wyck Godfrey, producers.

Green Book (Universal/Dreamworks) Jim Burke, Peter Farrelly and Charles B. Wessler, producers.

If Beale Street Could Talk (Plan B/Annapurna) Megan Ellison, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski and Barry Jenkins, producers.

Roma (Netflix/Esperanto) Alfonso Cuaron, Nicolas Celis and Gabriela Rodriguez, producers

A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber and Lynette Howell Taylor, producers.

Vice (Annapurna) Brad Pitt, Will Ferrell, Megan Ellison, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner and Adam McKay, producers

Widows (20th Century Fox) Steve McQueen, Iain Canning, Emile Sherman and Arnold Milchan, producers.

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Steve McQueen, Widows

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ryan Gosling, First Man
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Eighth Grade
written by Bo Burnham

The Favourite
written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

Green Book
written by Nick Villelonga, Brian Hayed Currie and Peter Farrelly

Roma
written by Alfonso Cuaron

Vice
written by Adam McKay

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BlacKkKlansman
screenplay by Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Wilmott
based on the book by Ron Stallworth

Can You Ever Forgive Me?
screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
based on the book Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Memoirs of a Literary Forger by Lee Israel

The Death of Stalin
screenplay by Armando Ianucci, David Schneider and Ian Martin
based on the comic book by Fabien Nury and Thierry Robin

If Beale Street Could Talk
screenplay by Barry Jenkins
based on the novel by James Baldwin

Widows
screenplay by Gillian Flynn and Steve McQueen
based on the TV miniseries created by Lynda LaPlante

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2 (Disney/PIXAR) Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
Isle of Dogs (20th Century Fox) Wes Anderson.
Mirai (GKids) Mamoru Hosada.
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Walt Disney Animation) Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey and Rodney Rothman

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Burning (South Korea) Lee Chang-dong, director
Capernaum (Lebanon) Nadine Labaki, director
Cold War (Poland) Pawel Pawlikowski, director
Roma (Mexico) Alfonso Cuaron, director
Shoplifters (Japan) Hirokazu Kore-eda, director

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo (National Geographic) Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin
Graves without a Name (Arte France) Rithy Panh.
RBG (Magnolia) Betsy West and Julie Cohen
Three Identical Strangers (CNN Films/Channel 4) Tim Wardle, Becky Read and Grace Hughes-Hallett
Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) Morgan Neville, Caryn Capotosto and Nicholas Ma

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Lukas Zal, Cold War
Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
Linus Sandgren, First Man
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Matthew Libatique, A Star is Born

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Sam Sneade, The Favourite
Tom Cross, First Man
Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma
Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born
Joe Walker, Widows

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hannah Beachler (production design) & Jay Hart (set decoration), Black Panther
Fiona Crombie (production design) & Alice Felton (set decoration), The Favourite
Nathan Crowley (production design) & Kathy Lucas (set decoration), First Man
John Mhyre (production design) & Gordon Sim (set decoration), Mary Poppins Returns
Eugenio Caballero (production design) & Barbara Enriquez (set decoration), Roma

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther
Mary E. Vogt, Crazy Rich Asians
Sandy Powell, The Favourite
Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
Alexandra Byrne, Mary, Queen of Scots

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Nicholas Brittell, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Hans Zimmer, Widows

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"All The Stars", Black Panther; Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, Al Shuckburgh, Solána Rowe & Anthony Tiffith (music & lyrics)
"I'll Fight", RBG; Diane Warren (music & lyrics)
"Revelation", Boy Erased; Troye Sivan and Jonsi (music & lyrics)
"Shallow", A Star is Born; Lady Gaga, Andrew Wyatt, Anthony Rossomando and Mark Ronson (music & lyrics)
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic", Mary Poppins Returns; Marc Shaiman (music) & Scott Whitman (lyrics)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter J. Devlin, Black Panther
Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montano and Jon Taylor, First Man
Mike Prestwood Smith, Gilbert Lake, Paul Munro and Chris Munro, Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Sergio Diaz, Craig Henighan and Skip Lievsay, Roma
Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean A. Zupancic, A Star is Born

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Steve Boeddeker and Ben Burtt, Black Panther
Mildred Iatrou and Ai-Ling Lee, First Man
James Mather, Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, A Quiet Place
Sergio Diaz, Roma

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Matt Aitken, Dan Sudick, Ben Wiggs and Dan Deleuuw, Avengers: Infinity War
Paul Lambert, Immanuel Morris, J.D. Schwalm and Timothy Angulo, First Man
Matt Johnson, Kyle McCulloch, Raphael A. Pimentel and Steven Warner, Mary Poppins Returns
Neil Corbould, Richard Schuler, Jody Johnson and Kieran Reed, Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Roger Guyett, Matthew Butler, Mathieu Vig and Neil Corbould, Ready Player One

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Nadia Stacey and Beverly Binda, The Favourite
Mark Coulier and Andrea Eusebi, Suspiria
Greg Cannom, Jamie Kelman and Cheryl Daniels, Vice
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