Final Nominations Predictions

For the films of 2018
anonymous1980
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by anonymous1980 »

BEST PICTURE OF THE YEAR

BlacKkKlansman (Focus Features) Sean McKittrick, Jason Blum, Raymond Mansfield, Jordan Peele, and Spike Lee, producers

Black Panther (Disney/Marvel) Kevin Feige, producer.

Bohemian Rhapsody (Warner Bros.) Graham King, producer.

The Favourite (Fox Searchlight) Yorgos Lanthimos, Ed Guiney, Ceci Dempsey and Lee Magiday, producers.

Green Book (Universal/Dreamworks) Jim Burke, Charles B. Wessler, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, and Nick Vallelonga, producers.

If Beale Street Could Talk (Plan B/Annapurna) Megan Ellison, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Adele Romanski and Barry Jenkins, producers.

Roma (Netflix/Esperanto) Alfonso Cuaron, Nicolas Celis and Gabriela Rodriguez, producers

A Star is Born (Warner Bros.) Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber and Lynette Howell Taylor, producers.

Vice (Annapurna) Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Kevin Messick, and Adam McKay, producers

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN DIRECTING
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Glenn Close, The Wife
Toni Collette, Hereditary
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST WRITING - ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Eighth Grade
written by Bo Burnham

The Favourite
written by Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara

Green Book
written by Nick Villelonga, Brian Hayed Currie and Peter Farrelly

Roma
written by Alfonso Cuaron

Vice
written by Adam McKay

BEST WRITING - ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

BlacKkKlansman
screenplay by Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel and Kevin Wilmott
based on the book Black Klansman by Ron Stallworth

Can You Ever Forgive Me?
screenplay by Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty
based on the book Can You Ever Forgive Me?: Memoirs of a Literary Forger by Lee Israel

The Death of Stalin
screenplay by Armando Ianucci, David Schneider and Ian Martin
based on the comic book by Fabien Nury and Thierry Robin

If Beale Street Could Talk
screenplay by Barry Jenkins
based on the novel by James Baldwin

Leave No Trace
screenplay by Debra Granik and Anne Rosselini
based on the novel My Abandonment by Peter Rock

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2 (Disney/PIXAR) Brad Bird, John Walker and Nicole Paradis Grindle
Isle of Dogs (20th Century Fox) Wes Anderson.
Mirai (GKids) Mamoru Hosada.
Ralph Breaks the Internet (Walt Disney Animation) Rich Moore, Phil Johnston and Clark Spencer
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse (Sony Pictures) Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey and Rodney Rothman

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Burning (South Korea) Lee Chang-dong, director
Capernaum (Lebanon) Nadine Labaki, director
Cold War (Poland) Pawel Pawlikowski, director
Roma (Mexico) Alfonso Cuaron, director
Shoplifters (Japan) Hirokazu Kore-eda, director

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Free Solo (National Geographic) Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin
Minding the Gap (ITVS) Bing Liu and Diane Moy Quon
Shirkers (Netflix) Sandi Tan and Jessica Levin
Three Identical Strangers (CNN Films/Channel 4) Tim Wardle, Becky Read and Grace Hughes-Hallett
Won't You Be My Neighbor? (Focus Features) Morgan Neville, Caryn Capotosto and Nicholas Ma

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN CINEMATOGRAPHY
Lukas Zal, Cold War
Robbie Ryan, The Favourite
Linus Sandgren, First Man
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Matthew Libatique, A Star is Born

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN FILM EDITING
Barry Alexander Brown, BlacKkKlansman
Tom Cross, First Man
Alfonso Cuaron and Adam Gough, Roma
Jay Cassidy, A Star Is Born
Hank Corwin, Vice

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN PRODUCTION DESIGN
Hannah Beachler (production design) & Jay Hart (set decoration), Black Panther
Fiona Crombie (production design) & Alice Felton (set decoration), The Favourite
Nathan Crowley (production design) & Kathy Lucas (set decoration), First Man
John Mhyre (production design) & Gordon Sim (set decoration), Mary Poppins Returns
Eugenio Caballero (production design) & Barbara Enriquez (set decoration), Roma

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN COSTUME DESIGN
Ruth E. Carter, Black Panther
Mary E. Vogt, Crazy Rich Asians
Sandy Powell, The Favourite
Sandy Powell, Mary Poppins Returns
Alexandra Byrne, Mary, Queen of Scots

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SCORE
Ludwig Goransson, Black Panther
Justin Hurwitz, First Man
Nicholas Brittell, If Beale Street Could Talk
Alexandre Desplat, Isle of Dogs
Marc Shaiman, Mary Poppins Returns

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MUSIC - ORIGINAL SONG
"All The Stars", Black Panther; Kendrick Lamar, Mark Spears, Al Shuckburgh, Solána Rowe & Anthony Tiffith (music & lyrics)
"I'll Fight", RBG; Diane Warren (music & lyrics)
"Revelation", Boy Erased; Jon Thor Birgisson, Troye Sivan and Brett MacLaughlin (music & lyrics)
"Shallow", A Star is Born; Lady Gaga, Andrew Wyatt, Anthony Rossomando and Mark Ronson (music & lyrics)
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic", Mary Poppins Returns; Marc Shaiman (music) & Scott Whitman (lyrics)

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND MIXING
Steve Boeddeker, Brandon Proctor and Peter J. Devlin, Black Panther
Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montano and Jon Taylor, First Man
Mike Prestwood Smith, Gilbert Lake, Paul Munro and Chris Munro, Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Sergio Diaz, Craig Henighan and Skip Lievsay, Roma
Tom Ozanich, Jason Ruder and Dean A. Zupancic, A Star is Born

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN SOUND EDITING
Steve Boeddeker and Ben Burtt, Black Panther
Mildred Iatrou and Ai-Ling Lee, First Man
James Mather, Mission: Impossible - Fallout
Erik Aadahl and Ethan Van Der Ryn, A Quiet Place
Richard Hymns, Ready Player One

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN VISUAL EFFECTS
Matt Aitken, Dan Sudick, Ben Wiggs and Dan Deleuuw, Avengers: Infinity War
Chris Lawrence, Chris Corbould, Nicolas Tripodi and Tina Foster, Christopher Robin
Paul Lambert, Immanuel Morris, J.D. Schwalm and Timothy Angulo, First Man
Matt Johnson, Kyle McCulloch, Raphael A. Pimentel and Steven Warner, Mary Poppins Returns
Roger Guyett, Matthew Butler, Mathieu Vig and Neil Corbould, Ready Player One

BEST ACHIEVEMENT IN MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Pamela Goldhammer, Border
Mark Coulier and Andrea Eusebi, Suspiria
Greg Cannom, Jamie Kelman and Cheryl Daniels, Vice
The Original BJ
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by The Original BJ »

One last thought -- which honestly feels like we're going full circle to the conversation that began nearly a year ago -- is that Black Panther feels like it's in a more precarious spot than I think many in the media are admitting. I'm not brave enough to predict against it making it in Best Picture -- it FEELS like it will hold on -- but the increased support for Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book in the past couple weeks could very well have knocked Panther down to around the eighth or ninth spot. Which means it would only take a late surge by Beale Street and/or First Man and/or fewer than nine nominees for the movie to be unexpectedly excluded. I'm of the feeling that a chanceless Best Picture nomination is probably the best outcome for those of us who don't care about the movie as an awards vehicle -- I'd rather just avoid the media outrage/popular film prize nonsense/expansion to 20 nominees that would result -- but in some ways such an exclusion would somehow feel appropriate for a season that has been marked by nothing but bad press and public ill feelings toward the Oscars.

PICTURE
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Adam McKay, Vice

ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

ACTRESS
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
Leave No Trace
A Star is Born

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Capernaum
Cold War
Never Look Away
Roma
Shoplifters

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Dark Money
Free Solo
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won't You Be My Neighbor?

ANIMATED FEATURE
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

ORIGINAL SONG
"All the Stars," Black Panther
"I'll Fight," RBG
"The Place Where Lost Things Go," Mary Poppins Returns
"Shallow," A Star is Born
"Trip a Little Light Fantastic," Mary Poppins Returns

ORIGINAL SCORE
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

COSTUME DESIGN
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Border
Suspiria
Vice

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Cold War
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born

FILM EDITING
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

SOUND MIXING
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born

SOUND EDITING
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible—Fallout
A Quiet Place
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

VISUAL EFFECTS
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Christopher Robin
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story
Okri
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Okri »

It's definitely cultural/generational. The film itself is about the same level as March of the Penguins, though as someone who is of a generation that watched Mister Rogers Neighborhood, I certainly prefer it.
Mister Tee
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Mister Tee »

MaxWilder wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:I simply can’t see Sam Rockwell being cited for that wisp of a performance. (The only similar afterglow-with-nothing nomination I can recall is Lee Grant in Voyage of the Damned.)
Penelope Cruz for Nine?
It was certainly a bad nomination that seemed tag-teamed with a win the year before. But the role had been a Tony-nominated one for Anita Morris in the original Broadway production, and a Tony-winning one for Jane Krakowski in the 2003 revival.

What shocked me most about Rockwell was he seemed barely in the movie. Steve Carell had 2-3 times the screen time, and was equally good.
MaxWilder wrote:
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seems the favorite, but did anyone notice it was left off by BAFTA?
Was Mr. Rogers shown in the UK? It's practically impossible to separate love for the film from love for its subject.
Which may also explain why I'm so cool to the film. Mr, Rogers came along after my childhood, and I never had kids to watch with, so my exposure to him prior to this film was zero. I have no idea what people see in this thing.
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Precious Doll »

Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seems the favorite, but did anyone notice it was left off by BAFTA?
Was Mr. Rogers shown in the UK? It's practically impossible to separate love for the film from love for its subject.
Won't You Be My Neighbour? was released in the UK (and Australia). I don't think it even been released anywhere else outside of festival screenings. Failed miserably in both countries - you couldn't pay people to watch the film. As the subject matter is largely unknown outside of North America its a very hard sell.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by MaxWilder »

Mister Tee wrote:I simply can’t see Sam Rockwell being cited for that wisp of a performance. (The only similar afterglow-with-nothing nomination I can recall is Lee Grant in Voyage of the Damned.)
Penelope Cruz for Nine?
Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seems the favorite, but did anyone notice it was left off by BAFTA?
Was Mr. Rogers shown in the UK? It's practically impossible to separate love for the film from love for its subject.
Mister Tee
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Mister Tee »

My guesses, with alternates and annotations:

1. Best Picture
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
alt.: Bohemian Rhapsody

I’m on my own a couple of ways here: 1) I just can’t see something as poorly reviewed as Bohemian Rhapsody making the best picture list, PGA and the Globes be damned. Most best film nominees make some showing for writing/directing, or else show down-ballot strength. I note even many of the people predicting the film give very little supporting evidence: beyond Malek, just a tech nod or two. That, to me, doth not a best picture nominee make, even in a crappy year. 2) On the flip side, I’m stubbornly clinging to First Man. I might have anyway, but I’ve been encouraged by the strong Guild showing and the strength at BAFTA. Only the film’s missing WGA gives me pause. Still, even without writer assistance, the film seems like it’ll have as much as or more than War Horse had when it crashed the field. 3) In the third place, I’m displaying faith in the art-house crowd to do its Tree of Life/Phantom Thread best to put If Beale Street Could Talk into contention.

2. Best Actor
Christian Bale (Vice)
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Ethan Hawke (First Reformed)
Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Viggo Mortensen (Green Book)
alt.: John David Washington (BlacKkKlansman)

Like everyone, I start with four (Mortensen was the shakiest, but last night clinched it for him), then pick a fifth at random. I’m feeling Hawke’s critical sweep will push him over the line. Washington’s strength is solely the prominence of his film, not his performance in it – which may be enough, but I’m betting against. Can't rule out Dafoe, either.

3. Best Actress
Glenn Close (The Wife)
Olivia Colman (The Favourite)
Viola Davis (Widows)
Lady Gaga (A Star is Born)
Melissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
alt.: Yalitza Aparicio (Roma)

Again, fifth-spot blues. I’ve changed my mind multiple times – had Yalitza on Roma-power, Collette on critics’ wins, Kidman on transformation-level (plus being Kidman). But finally yielded to BAFTA, and the idea that Widows, perceived flop though it be, was seen by more than any of the others.

4. Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Timothee Chalamet (Beautiful Boy)
Adam Driver (BlacKkKlansman)
Sam Elliott (A Star is Born)
Richard C. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
alt.: Michael B. Jordan (Black Panther)

I take Eric’s point about Sam Elliott not being a powerhouse, but alternatives have just not presented themselves, and I simply can’t see Sam Rockwell being cited for that wisp of a performance. (The only similar afterglow-with-nothing nomination I can recall is Lee Grant in Voyage of the Damned.) Would love for these new voters to make a miracle for Steven Yeun, but understand miracle is actually too soft a word for that.

5. Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams (Vice)
Claire Foy (First Man)
Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Emma Stone (The Favourite)
Rachel Weisz (The Favourite)
alt.: Margot Robbie (Mary, Queen of Scots)

Given Amy Adams’ fractured AMPAS history – getting unexpected nods (The Master, American Hustle) and missing anticipated ones (Arrival) -- I can’t be 100% certain on her. I AM certain about the Favourite ladies and Regina King (despite the ill omens of SAG and BAFTA). After that, it’s spin the wheel. Would love the undersung Debicki, but know not to expect it.

6. Best Director
Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Alfonso Cuaron (Roma) 2
Barry Jenkins (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Spike Lee (BlacKkKlansman)
Yorgos Lanthimos (The Favourite)
alt.: Pawel Pawlikowski (Cold War)

People have been murmuring Pawlikowski for a while, and BAFTA gave the idea shelf-life…but I’m expending all my effort trying to work in the other art-aspirant contenders, and can’t quite make it fit. DGA second-tier McKay and Farrelly can’t be dismissed. But Farrelly would be maybe the worst bubble-candidate to make it since, let’s say, Hallstrom/The Cider House Rules. The BAFTA exclusion persuades me he’ll be left out, even after the PGA result.

7. Best Adapted Screenplay
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Death of Stalin
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star is Born
alt.: First Man

I’ve wavered between Death of Stalin ad First Man for my final slot. Don’t see A Star is Born as locked in. Really can’t imagine Black Panther, but WGA gives me pause. Either Leave No Trace or Spider Man, from opposite ends, could sneak in.

8. Best Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
Vice
alt.: Cold War

Assuming a sure four, now that we know Green Book hasn’t been fatally wounded by Twitter. The fifth could be Eighth Grade (per WGA), Cold War (per BAFTA), First Reformed or Sorry to Bother You (from critical enthusiasm).

9. Best Cinematography
Cold War
The Favourite
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
alt.: If Beale Street Could Talk

Always the possibility of a substitution, but the ASC five feel right.

10. Best Costume Design
Black Panther
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
alt.: Colette

There are always alternates, but these five seem roughly obvious to me.

11. Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary, Queen of Scots
alt.: Roma

See costumes -- though Roma has been putting it out that much of its urban landscape was actually built, not just shot, which could persuade voters. And the Hail, Caesar! nod from this group makes me wonder if Buster Scruggs could slip in.

12. Best Sound Mixing
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star is Born
alt.: Black Panther

Music films, a space film, a film ABOUT sound -- and Roma.

13. Best Film Editing
BlackkKlansman
First Man
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice
alt.: Green Book

Default to best picture contenders, as filtered through ACE.

14. Best Score
BlacKkKlansman
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
alt.: Black Panther

The final face-off I expect -- First Man vs. Beale Street -- seems, in all senses, as black and white a choice as could be imagined.

15. Best Visual Effects
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Mary Poppins Returns
Ready Player One
Welcome to Marwen
alt.: First Man

Murmurs after the bake-off, plus a huge showing at the Visual Effects Society, make me feel Marwen is going to be this year’s “we love the techs no matter how hard the movie sucks” choice. I feel like I could miss up to 3 of 5 here, including the ultimate winner; I’ve seldom been so uncertain about a category.

16. Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Mission Impossible: Fallout
A Quiet Place
alt.: Roma

17. Best Make Up
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice
alt.: Border

Whatever I guess, assume I’ll be wrong. This branch lives to plague predictors.

18. Best Song
All the Stars (Black Panther)
Revelation (Boy Erased)
The Place Where Lost Things Go (Mary Poppins Returns)
I’ll Fight (RBG)
Shallow (A Star Is Born)
alt.: When A Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings (The Ballad of Buster Scruggs)

Diane Warren, because that’s what they do; the Poppins number I like the best; Black Panther because Lamar is even cool enough for the Pulitzers; a wild guess; and it’s all a charade…because, Shallow.

19. Best Foreign Language Film
Burning (South Korea)
Cold War (Poland)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
alt.: Capernaum (Lebanon)

I’m keeping Burning in where most are giving the boot, because, no skin off my nose. (Honestly, I don’t see where the film is so out there it demands deletion. Toni Erdmann and Dogtooth, for two, were way less accessible and made the cut.) Hoping for a truly stellar slate.

20. Best Animated Feature
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
MIrai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider Man: Into the Spider-verse

Mirai is the only one I even faintly question.

21. Best Documentary Feature
Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
alt.: Shirkers

I’m disheartened to see so many people omitting Three Identical Strangers, which remains my favorite of the three I’ve seen. Won’t You Be My Neighbor? seems the favorite, but did anyone notice it was left off by BAFTA?

The other shorts would be total guesswork, which I choose not to do.
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Reza »

BEST PICTURE
BlacKkKlansman
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
First Man
Green Book
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

BEST ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

BEST DIRECTOR
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Rome
Peter Farrely, Green Book
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Last edited by Reza on Mon Jan 21, 2019 10:54 pm, edited 3 times in total.
MaxWilder
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by MaxWilder »

Sabin wrote:Our good friend Eric also posted his here. I'll just leave the link but it's worth reading. He makes some good points about John David Washington and Sam Elliott.
https://www.slantmagazine.com/film/2019 ... edictions/
Right around the same time, it started becoming apparent that BlacKkKlansman is a stronger draw than anyone thought, which means Adam Driver (who everyone was already predicting for a nod) won’t have to suffer the representationally awkward fate of being the film’s only nominee.
That is a very good point. JDW is in, Ethan Hawke is out. Blech.

Other things I've resigned myself to:
  • Bohemian Rhapsody: according to people who make movies, one of the ~9 best movies of 2018. Bear in mind, there were more than 9 movies released in 2018.
  • Peter Farrelly: triple nominee.
  • Emily Blunt remaining one of the best actors not to be nominated for an Oscar.
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by mlrg »

My final predictions for top categories:

Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Streets Could Talk
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice

Director:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Streets Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Actress:

Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supp. Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Elliot, A Star is Born

Supp. Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Regina King, If Beale Streets Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Heksagon
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Heksagon »

Here's my predictions for the main categories (I may add more categories later).

The awards themselves have gotten more and more predictable each year, but the nominations usually have at least some surprises, and this year's competition seems to offer a lot of opportunities for those, as some of the line-ups seems so weak, so we'll see what happens. The big surprise I'm trying to predict is that Lady Gaga will have to settle for a song nomination. Her film is running out of steam and the Academy rarely nominates singers for their first attempt at serious acting these days (although they did like to do that in the past).

I also find it unlikely that Timothée Chalamet would get a second nomination at such a young age, but I really don't know who to put in his place. Sam Elliott feels even less likely (especially if I'm not expecting Lady Gaga to get nominated either), unless I'm seriously underestimating how popular he is in the U.S.

Picture:

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Streets Could Talk
Roma*
A Star Is Born
Vice

Director:

Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Alfonso Cuarón, Roma*
Barry Jenkins, If Beale Streets Could Talk
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman

Actor:

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody*
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman

Actress:

Glenn Close, The Wife*
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Viola Davis, Widows
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supp. Actor:

Mahershala Ali, Green Book*
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell, Vice

Supp. Actress:

Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Streets Could Talk*
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Precious Doll »

Only predicting some of the categories. I know people are bemoaning what a weak year this is and that is certainly the case for American cinema but international cinema has produced a number of gems. The most disturbing thing will probably be the supporting acting line-ups this year and the level of category fraud. Beyond shameless.

Picture

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma
A Star is Born
Vice

Director

Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Yorgos Lanthiamos, The Favourite
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Paul Schrader, First Reformed

Actor

Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book

Actress

Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Sam Eilliot, A Star is Born
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Supporting Actress

Amy Adams, Vice
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite

Adapted Screenplay

BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
The Death of Stalin
The Hate U Give
If Beale Street Could Talk

Original Screenplay

The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
Roma
Vice

Cinematography

Black Panther
Cold War
The Favourite
If Beale Street Could Talk
Roma

Foreign Language Film

Birds of Passage (Colombia)
Capernaum (Lebanon)
Never Look Away (Germany)
Roma (Mexico)
Shoplifters (Japan)
Last edited by Precious Doll on Sat Jan 19, 2019 7:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by dws1982 »

First and only predictions. Nominees are in order of likelihood.

Picture:
Roma
A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
The Favourite
Green Book
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Vice
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk

Like a lot of years, it's tough to guess with any certainty outside of the top five. I could see any of the next five dropping off. But for what? In my mind, the bench doesn't run all that deep. Can You Ever Forgive Me? never broke out of Actors/Screenplay contention, First Reformed may not even break into those categories, The Wife never even broke out of Actress contention, Crazy Rich Asians could get in or could get blanked just as easily. I'd probably rank A Quiet Place as 11th.

Director:
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Yorgos Lanthiamos, The Favourite
Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
If Barry Jenkins made it in over Cooper, would this be the most auteurist Director lineup ever? I consider Cuaron and Lee locks, and Cooper a pretty solid bet (despite the near-blanking at the Globes, it's gotten every guild nomination it could've asked for). The Lanthiamos snubs at the Globes and DGA seems odd--on the face of it The Favourite seems more like a Lone Director film, rather than a Picture-not-Director one. The Globes and DGA do tend more mainstream, so I think Lanthiamos will fare better with the director's branch. Could well be wrong on Pawlikowski, but it feels like one of the rare (at least under the current schedule) times where a late release is being talked about a lot just as nominations opened. But that spot (and, potentially Lanthiamos') could potentially go to Farelly, McKay, Jenkins, Coogler, or maybe even Debra Granik.

Actor:
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Christian Bale, Vice
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
I think it's really close between Hawke, Dafoe, and Washington for that fifth slot. (Although I do think Mortensen could miss.) Don't really know of anyone else who's likely to make a play unless--and it won't happen--voters decide to reject that Ali-is-supporting campaign.

Actress:
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Glenn Close, The Wife
Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
I don't have a clue on that last spot. I really don't think Aparicio's performance is the type of foreign performance that's going to get nominated. It's possible, sure, but I think actors can like and nominate Roma without extending that love to the actors. So between Aparicio, Fisher, Collette, Blunt, Kulig, Kidman, Hall, and all of the actresses who've been mentioned as part of this race, why not Fisher? It's a movie that voters are likely to have seen, it plays well on video/streaming, and actors probably know that it doesn't have much shot anywhere other than screenplay. If you use past patterns, she has as much or more going for her than Hall, Kulig, Collette, and Aparicio. And Blunt's film has not taken off in the way it seemed like it might. There's usually a (seemingly) random, out-of-nowhere nominee, and I think this is our most likely category to get one. It may not be Fisher, but I think she's got as good a shot as anyone. (Still a mystery why Ben Is Back never took off--other than bad release/promotion--and why Roberts is not getting any traction for her best performance ever.)

Supporting Actor:
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Sam Rockwell, Vice
I still don't see how Ali seems poised to take this without much resistance. I like him, both as an actor and as a celebrity, but this just doesn't seem right. I would much rather see Chalamet get a makeup award than see Ali get an award for an adequate (at best) performance in a godawful movie, although I would truly vote for anyone over Ali. Unfortunately, I feel like Rockwell may get that last spot. I'd much rather it be Sam Elliot, both because I think he's better in his film, and because It think it would be cool to see him nominated. Would not be shocked to see Elliot and Rockwell both show up, at Chalamet's expense, or Elliot show up in Rockwell's place.

Supporting Actress:
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Honestly would not be shocked to see Amy Adams miss. (If she does, I think Rockwell would too.) She's missed for stronger work in the past. But she has to be rated a more likely prospect to be nominated than Foy. If Foy misses, I would guess that Emily Blunt, Margot Robbie, and Thomasin Harcourt MacKenzie, in that order, are most likely to pick up that last spot.

Adapted Screenplay:
If Beale Street Could Talk
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BlacKkKlansman
A Star is Born
Leave No Trace

I think the first three are pretty well locked-in, with the last two spots more in flux, and I could see one or both of those spots going to Black Panther, The Death of Stalin, Crazy Rich Asians or Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

Original Screenplay:
The Favourite
Roma
Vice
Green Book
Eighth Grade

Sadly, I don't really think any spot but the fifth spot is up for grabs. Which is too bad, because I think two of the films that will be nominated are outright poor pieces of screenwriting. Would not be surprised to see First Reformed or Cold War show up. And why has Magnolia not tried to get Shoplifters in a few of these above-the-line categories? I feel like they could've made a play for a spot in this lineup.

Cinematography:
Roma
First Man
The Favourite
Cold War
A Star is Born

I hate to see If Beale Street Could Talk miss out here, but I'm not sure what it would replace. Maybe A Star is Born, but that would make this a very indie-leaning lineup in a category that almost always makes room for a few "traditional" Hollywood films. Black Panther, and, God help us, probably Bohemian Rhapsody are probably possibilities, and if they go for a real out-of-nowhere indie nominee, I'd guess The Rider is most likely.

Editing:
First Man
A Star is Born
Vice
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite

Tough category, because I do think BlacKkKlansman, Roma, and Black Panther are possible nominees. First Man is the only one I would put any money on.

Score:
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindenwald

Don't underestimate the music branch's tendency to nominate a high-profile movie scored by a multi-nominated composer, even if the Academy ignores it otherwise. James Newton Howard (composer for Fantastic Beasts) has received a few of those nominations himself.

Song:
Shallow, A Star is Born
All the Stars, Black Panther
I'll Fight, RBG
The Place Where Lost Things Go, Mary Poppins Returns
Girl in the Movies, Dumplin'
Honestly, who knows?

Production Design:
The Favourite
Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindenwald


Costume Design:
The Favourite
Black Panther
Mary Queen of Scots
Mary Poppins Returns
Crazy Rich Asians


Sound Mixing:
First Man
A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
Roma


Sound Editing:
First Man
Black Panther
A Quiet Place
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Mission Impossible: Fallout


Visual Effects:
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
Solo: A Star Wars Story
First Man
Welcome to Marwen


Makeup:
Vice
Border
Mary Queen of Scots

Why has this category not been expanded to five?

Foreign Film:
Roma
Cold War
Shoplifters
Capernaum
Never Look Away


Documentary:
Won't You Be My Neighbor?
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Free Solo
Minding the Gap

Would like to see Shirkers nominated, but it may not seem "important" enough. Still wonder what happened with Peter Jackson's WWI documentary...not sure if it was not submitted, or submitted and rejected. It was a really good experiment, I thought.

Animated Film:
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Isle of Dogs
The Incredibles 2
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Mirai
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Re: Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Our good friend Eric also posted his here. I'll just leave the link but it's worth reading. He makes some good points about John David Washington and Sam Elliott.

https://www.slantmagazine.com/film/2019 ... edictions/
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Final Nominations Predictions

Post by Sabin »

I figure I'd kick this off not with my final nominations but Anne Thompson's at IndieWire. Ranked by likelihood.

https://www.indiewire.com/2019/01/2019- ... 202036260/


Best Picture

“Roma” (Netflix)
“A Star Is Born” (Warner Bros.)
“BlacKkKlansman” (Focus Features)
“Green Book” (Universal)
“Vice” (Annapurna)
“Black Panther” (Marvel/Disney)
“The Favourite” (Fox Searchlight)
“First Man” (Universal)
“Bohemian Rhapsody” (Fox)
“If Beale Street Could Talk” (Annapurna)

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron (“Roma”)
Spike Lee (“BlacKkKlansman”)
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”)
Adam McKay (“Vice”)

Best Actor

Christian Bale (“Vice”)
Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”)
Bradley Cooper (“A Star Is Born”)
Viggo Mortensen (“Green Book”)
Ethan Hawke (“First Reformed”)

Best Actress

Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”)
Glenn Close (“The Wife”)
Lady Gaga (“A Star Is Born”)
Melissa McCarthy (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Yalitza Aparicio (“Roma”)

Best Supporting Actor

Mahershala Ali (“Green Book”)
Richard E. Grant (“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”)
Sam Elliott (“A Star Is Born”)
Timothee Chalamet (“Beautiful Boy”)
Adam Driver (“BlacKkKlansman:)

Best Supporting Actress

Regina King (“If Beale Street Could Talk”)
Amy Adams (“Vice”)
Rachel Weisz (“The Favourite”)
Emma Stone (“The Favourite”)
Emily Blunt (“A Quiet Place”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

“BlacKkKlansman”
“Can You Ever Forgive Me?”
“Black Panther”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Leave No Trace”

Best Original Screenplay

“The Favourite”
“Roma”
“Green Book”
“Vice”
“First Reformed”

Best Animated Feature

“Incredibles 2”
“Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse”
“Ralph Breaks the Internet”
“Isle of Dogs”
“Mirai”


“Age of Sail”

Best Animated Short

“Bao”
“Age of Sail”
“Bird Karma”
“Weekends”
“Bilby”


Best Live Action Short

“Caroline”
“Skin”
“Marguerite”
“Detainment”
“Icare”

Best Cinematography

“Roma”
“The Favourite”
“First Man”
“A Star Is Born”
“Cold War”

Best Costumes

“Black Panther”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“The Favourite”
“Mary Queen of Scots”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”


“Free Solo”

Best Documentary Feature

“Free Solo”
“Won’t You Be My Neighbor?”
“RBG”
“Minding the Gap”
“Of Fathers and Sons”

Best Documentary Short

“Zion”
“Black Sheep”
“Women of the Gulag”
“End Game”
“Period. End of Sentence.”

Best Editing

“A Star Is Born”
“Roma”
“The Favourite”
“Vice”
“First Man”

Best Foreign Language Film

“Roma” (Mexico)
“Cold War” (Poland)
“Shoplifters” (Japan)
“Capernaum” (Lebanon)
“Never Look Away” (Germany)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Vice”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“Black Panther”

Best Production Design

“Black Panther”
“Roma”
“The Favourite”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
“First Man”

Best Original Score

“First Man”
“If Beale Street Could Talk”
“Isle of Dogs”
“BlacKKKlansman”
“Mary Poppins Returns”

Best Original Song

“Shallow” (“A Star Is Born”)
“All the Stars” (“Black Panther”)
“I’ll Fight” (“RBG”)
“The Place Where Lost Things Go” (“Mary Poppins Returns”)
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” (“Mary Poppins Returns”)

Best Sound Editing

“A Quiet Place”
“First Man”
“A Star Is Born”
“Roma”
“Black Panther”

Best Sound Mixing

“A Star Is Born”
“Bohemian Rhapsody”
“A Quiet Place”
“Roma”
“First Man”

Best Visual Effects

“Black Panther”
“Ready Player One”
“Avengers Infinity War”
“First Man”
“Mary Poppins Returns”
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