SAG Predictions

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Sabin
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Sabin »

flipp525 wrote
Speaking of buttons, do you ever actually read through your posts before pressing the submit button? I’m continually amazed by them as well as how little pushback is offered up by other people on this Board.
To be fair, some of us hadn’t read it yet.

Don’t have much else to add. The comments about Mahershala Ali are especially myopic because it ignores so many other reasons why he is winning: he has the biggest role in a Best Picture heavy. He might have more screen time than the other nominees combined. If not, then close to it. His competition has more limited screen time (Driver, Elliott, Rockwell) or not in a Best Picture nominee (Grant). His character also has the fullest arc.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

OscarGuy wrote:It's the same gripe Tripp has about Reza's posts.

Let's not conflate personal dislike for something and a consensus choice not matching our own tastes.
Phillip (or Flipp), not Tripp (FilmFan).
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by danfrank »

flipp525 wrote:
Reza wrote:It's a given she is the best of those nominated this year - Amy Adams, despite her slew of past nods, is nowhere in the same league as King - plus King has the added factor of being an African-American in the race. She will win hands down for her great performance. The race card, which is a big guilt factor today in American culture, IS an additional push that will help her to the win. Just as Mahershala Ali will win for playing an "articulate" African-American character which is very unique to the way black characters are usually portrayed on the American screen. He also has the added factor of playing a gay character. All the right buttons are being pushed by both actors in this race.
Speaking of buttons, do you ever actually read through your posts before pressing the submit button? I’m continually amazed by them as well as how little pushback is offered up by other people on this Board. The sheer audacity of saying that Mahershala Ali will win because he’s playing an “articulate black man.” I mean, really? Maybe he’s winning awards because his performance is really good and he finds moment of dignity and grace in his character. He just won two years ago - it’s not like he is overdue or playing up the “I’m the only black guy in this category” card. Your reasoning is absurd.

This entire post is so reductive; it feels like it was written in the year 1994.
Thanks for saying something, Flipp. I completely cringed upon reading Reza’s post. I felt it demeaned both actors, all black people, and all gay people.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by OscarGuy »

Taki, that's a bit reductive. An ensemble isn't one or two actors, it's the entire cast. So what if one of them wasn't worthy of singling out, the entire cast was strong and I could make a case for Forrest Whitaker and Angela Bassett being prime candidates for nominations, as could I also make a case for Danai Gurira and Michael B. Jordan. Just because they couldn't make it through in heavily-populated categories does not mean the ensemble wasn't a worthy winner.

Does everything have to be a political decision these days? I find more and more people who seem to think that something winning is clearly a political choice or a politically correct choice. Perhaps sometimes, the win is deserved? I guarantee you there were people dismissing Moonlight's win as a politically correct choice over the more popular La La Land. That does not make it so. It's the same gripe Flipp has about Reza's posts.

Let's not conflate personal dislike for something and a consensus choice not matching our own tastes.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by flipp525 »

Reza wrote:It's a given she is the best of those nominated this year - Amy Adams, despite her slew of past nods, is nowhere in the same league as King - plus King has the added factor of being an African-American in the race. She will win hands down for her great performance. The race card, which is a big guilt factor today in American culture, IS an additional push that will help her to the win. Just as Mahershala Ali will win for playing an "articulate" African-American character which is very unique to the way black characters are usually portrayed on the American screen. He also has the added factor of playing a gay character. All the right buttons are being pushed by both actors in this race.
Speaking of buttons, do you ever actually read through your posts before pressing the submit button? I’m continually amazed by them as well as how little pushback is offered up by other people on this Board. The sheer audacity of saying that Mahershala Ali will win because he’s playing an “articulate black man.” I mean, really? Maybe he’s winning awards because his performance is really good and he finds moment of dignity and grace in his character. He just won two years ago - it’s not like he is overdue or playing up the “I’m the only black guy in this category” card. Your reasoning is absurd.

This entire post is so reductive; it feels like it was written in the year 1994.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by MaxWilder »

Precious Doll wrote:Malek's advantage is that he is an a film that its a huge worldwide box office hit starring a much beloved Freddie Mercury. Bale is playing a person in Vice that most people have never heard of.
Wait. What? Small children are not voting here. Everyone in the Academy knows who Dick Cheney is.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by taki15 »

So none of "Black Panther"'s actors were deemed worthy of a nomination, but the movie wins Best Ensemble?
How the hell can anyone explain this other than that it's a blatantly political decision?
Gosh, I never liked much that film but I'm now starting to hate it.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Precious Doll »

Big Magilla wrote:You'll all laugh, but I really think Dafoe is going to win Best Actor.
You might certainly be on to something there. If there is going to be a shock Oscar night in the acting awards Actor would appear to be possible. And whilst I'm sticking to my guns that Malik will win if there was going to be an upset my money would be on Dafoe over Bale.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Big Magilla »

You'll all laugh, but I really think Dafoe is going to win Best Actor.

These things are often done in pairs. Fonda and Hepburn for 1981 - the two old pros. Washington and Berry for 2001 - the two African-Americans the year Poitier received his career achievement award. Bridges and Bullock for 2009 - the two most overlooked in their careers.

Dafoe and Close push the same buttons as Fonda and Hepburn and Bridges and Bullock. As I asked in another thread, who are the supporters of Ethan Hawke, Ryan Gosling, Lucas Hedges and other cancelled out early contenders going to switch their allegiance to? Dafoe, whose first nomination was just four years after Close's first, is the most logical.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Precious Doll »

OscarGuy wrote: So, three actors in all of Oscar history with minor film careers prior to their wins have won the Oscar. Bohemian Rhapsody doesn't compare easily to any of those three films or the performances that won. Brody was a bit of a shock that no one saw coming. Rush and Redmayne played characters with serious mental or physical disabilities, which is definitely not what Freddie Mercury was and since we never got to see Mercury succumb to AIDS, I'd say that the comparison isn't easy.
Brody was not a shock no one saw coming. I predicted him based on the fact that his 4 fellow nominees were either recent winners (Cains, Nicholson & Cage) and the 4th (Day-Lewis) was in a film not widely liked. Brody seemed a natural fit and it turned out that is was Polanski whose win shocked from The Pianist. And what great wins they were because they actually deserved them.

Malek's advantage is that he is an a film that its a huge worldwide box office hit starring a much beloved Freddie Mercury. Bale is playing a person in Vice that most people have never heard of. Vice is making no where near the amount of money at the box office that BR has. Whilst neither performance is award worthy Malek has more to do. And even if BR doesn't show Freddie dying of AIDS which get the picture and we all know how that ended and it wasn't pretty and we didn't need to see that, The Academy won't give the Oscar for Bale playing vile Dick Cheney grunting and huffing along all through most of the film. (Neither will the BAFTAs - not that they matter).
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by OscarGuy »

Instead of "not the frontrunner," I should have said, "far from being a lock" as that's what I truly meant.

I don't think Malek's an unequivocal frontrunner simply because he's picked up two of the televised awards. Bale has also won two. SAG is higher profile than Critics Choice, but Bohemian Rhapsody is also the kind of movie the Academy seldom honors. They also do not like young actors. Malek is 37. Bale is 44. Average age for a Best Actor winner is 44 years, both overall and in the last twenty years. Now, Malek's lucky that a large number of 30-plus actors have won, so this isn't a hobble, but when was the last time a non-movie star won the Oscar for Best Actor?

Eddie Redmayne? He wasn't much of a star, but certainly not a TV star. Definitely a neophyte, having worked only since 2006 before winning in 2014 (nearly a decade before winning), but had 12 films under his belt including praised performances in My Week with Marilyn and Les Miserables along with notable performances in noted like Elizabeth II: Electric Boogaloo, The Other Boleyn Girl, and The Good Shepherd.

Before that who? Adrien Brody? He made 20 films before that and had been working since childhood in 1989 (over a decade before winning). Not a movie star for sure, but he had at least things like The Thin Red Line and The Affair of the Necklace in his past.

Before that who? Geoffrey Rush? He only had four films prior, though he'd been working since 1981. Twelfth Night was the only one of those films that anyone would have taken notice of.

So, how does Malek compare? 14 films since 2006. His noted films include Night at the Museum, Night at the Museum 2, Larry Crowne, Battleship, The Master, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn 2, Ain't Them Bodies Saints, Short Term 12, Oldboy, Need for Speed, Night at the Museum 3, Buster's Mal Heart, and Papillon. So, he's got some good smaller efforts in there, but a whole shit ton of schlock that neither Redmayne nor Brody nor Rush had been saddled with. He has, however, been working in television since 2004 and has significantly more credits there, which may help explain why SAG went for him. Since SAG and AFTRA have a larger body of television actors than film actors. The difference is that Rush had one, maybe two if we're generous, television series credits before winning; Redmayne had a couple as well; and Brody had nothing notable.

So, three actors in all of Oscar history with minor film careers prior to their wins have won the Oscar. Bohemian Rhapsody doesn't compare easily to any of those three films or the performances that won. Brody was a bit of a shock that no one saw coming. Rush and Redmayne played characters with serious mental or physical disabilities, which is definitely not what Freddie Mercury was and since we never got to see Mercury succumb to AIDS, I'd say that the comparison isn't easy.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Reza »

I don't understand why so much is being written about the merits of Regina King's performance and comparing her placement to that of Stallone. Each competitive race, actor and his or her placement is unique to the "politics" of any particular year which I think is always unique to the "market forces" prevailing each year.

It's a given she is the best of those nominated this year - Amy Adams, despite her slew of past nods, is nowhere in the same league as King - plus King has the added factor of being an African-American in the race. She will win hands down for her great performance. The race card, which is a big guilt factor today in American culture, IS an additional push that will help her to the win. Just as Mahershala Ali will win for playing an "articulate" African-American character which is very unique to the way black characters are usually portrayed on the American screen. He also has the added factor of playing a gay character. All the right buttons are being pushed by both actors in this race.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by The Original BJ »

Sabin wrote:
Mister Tee wrote
But I'd guess Regina King was the big winner tonight.
Wouldn’t we have said the same for Stallone in 2015, who also wasn’t up for a SAG or a BAFTA? The only big difference I see between them is that Beale Street is up for three Oscars and is seen as a more artistic film. Which in the end might be all King needs.
I also think we have to delineate the very different career situation that Stallone and King are in. Stallone was a huge star who spent decades making crud in between his two Oscar nominations for playing the same character -- I think the idea of making Stallone an Oscar-winning actor was something that likely gave some voters pause, particularly when a highly respected stage vet like Rylance was right there.

King, on the other hand, is a long-time working actress who -- like Melissa Leo and Octavia Spencer -- is finally breaking through to a new level in her career, first on television (three Emmys in four years) and now with a truly memorable film role. She's also directed a bunch of television. She's worked with everyone. She seems very well liked in the industry. I think most people would be happy to see her with a Supporting Actress Oscar at this stage in her career.

I think the big question now is how much voters like Beale Street -- it pretty seriously underperformed with nominations, and the other movies in this category were the three that basically got every nomination they could have. Maybe King and her performance will be well-liked enough that this won't matter -- the fact that The Danish Girl wasn't a major player didn't hurt Vikander in the end -- but maybe not. We'll see.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Sabin »

Mister Tee wrote
But I'd guess Regina King was the big winner tonight.
Wouldn’t we have said the same for Stallone in 2015, who also wasn’t up for a SAG or a BAFTA? The only big difference I see between them is that Beale Street is up for three Oscars and is seen as a more artistic film. Which in the end might be all King needs.
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Re: SAG Predictions

Post by Precious Doll »

dws1982 wrote:Rami Malek is going to win the Oscar for kind of looking like Freddie Mercury, isn't he?
Yep. And Close is going to win for her career and not her performance. History will not be kind to this years lead winners.

Anyone know if this is the first time that SAG has awarded all four motion picture acting prizes to lead performances? It really is so fucked. Arguably six of the supporting nominee's were lead (Driver, Chalamet, Ali, Weisz, Stone & Blunt).
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