The Original BJ wrote:
I'd say Viola Davis's nomination was a pretty big deal. I'm having a heck of a time rationalizing who's going to get that fifth Best Actress spot, since none of the potential candidates (Blunt, Davis, Kidman, Collette, Hall, Pike, Fisher) really seem that likely to pull it off. Not sure Davis is the one who will, but this clearly shows Emily Blunt hasn't got it locked up as some have assumed.
I think trying to predict who is going to get the fifth slot in Best Actress is harder and at this stage anyway more interesting than trying to predict the winner. I had Blunt pegged until I actually saw Mary Poppins Returns and poor Emily Blunt gets lost in the ensemble. She barely registered - not her fault, simply the way the film is written, she really isn't given that much to do. The only thing I think that Blunt has going for her nomination wise is she may be viewed by some as overdue for a nomination.
Aside from the seven actress you named BJ there is also a chance Yalitza Aparicio or even Joanna Kulig could take that 5th spot.
Another remote possibility is that voters may place Emma Stone and/or Rachel Weisz in lead, which I don't think we have seen that happen since Kate Winslet in The Reader.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
Sabin wrote:I'll cosign everything said below but I was struck by the muted showing for A Star is Born. Seven nominations is nothing to sneer at, but where was Sam Elliott? He couldn't get a nomination over Sam Rockwell who was in Vice for ten minutes? Worst of all, when I read the nominees for Best Supporting Actor and I saw that Sam Rockwell had made the list, I had to ask myself who he bumped... and it took me a while to remember Elliott.
I forgot the BAFTAs were announcing today. At first glance I thought the list was another group of predictions.
I agree that BJ's analysis is spot on. I also agree that Rockwell doesn't deserve a nomination this year but I'm not a big fan of Sam Elliott this year either. My choice for the slot is Robert Forster in What They Had, a film that apparently no one else saw.
The Original BJ wrote:
Cold War also had a stronger than expected showing, making the Director/Screenplay lists. I'd been pretty lukewarm on the possibility of Pawlikowski actually nabbing the lone-director type Oscar slot -- the movie just didn't seem to be on the radar enough in mainstream terms -- but perhaps these nominations suggests it's not out of the realm of the possible.
I suspect the primary reason Cold War/Pawlikowski made it in these categories is because Pawlikowski got his major break in the British Film Industry with films such as Last Resort, My Summer of Love (which also launched Emily Blunt) & The Woman in the Fifth. He certainly would be a surprise inclusion at the Oscars. Most directors that are members of the Academy probably think Ida was his film debut.
The BAFTAs used to be sort of fun when they were held after the Oscars. They had many insane omissions and nominations but they were there own masters. Since they began trying to influence/predict the Oscars they have become tiresome and boring. Some Brits still sneak in like Steve Coogan for Stan & Ollie but they really showed their homophobia this year with the surprise and complete lockout of Rupert Everett's passion project The Happy Prince. I suppose his frankness about his past and personal life simply doesn't sit too well them after all.
Also the almost complete omission of Black '47 shows the Brits still haven't gotten over Ireland. Barry Keoghan's nomination is as near to Black '47 gets to a BFTA. Considering Black '47 was highly praised its omission is doubly glaring.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
I'll cosign everything said below but I was struck by the muted showing for A Star is Born. Seven nominations is nothing to sneer at, but where was Sam Elliott? He couldn't get a nomination over Sam Rockwell who was in Vice for ten minutes? Worst of all, when I read the nominees for Best Supporting Actor and I saw that Sam Rockwell had made the list, I had to ask myself who he bumped... and it took me a while to remember Elliott.
And what about Best Cinematography or Best Film Editing? Sure, it got more nominations than BlacKkKlansman and Green Book, but tying Bohemian Rhapsody and First Man doesn't feel like a big win.
Probably the biggest headline in Oscar terms has to be the mind-bogglingly bad showing for Black Panther, which nabbed a single nomination for Visual Effects, missing a lot of the tech categories where it's thought to be a strong candidate (Production/Costume Design, Sound). I expect the film to do a bit better with the Academy, but even close to a repeat of this nomination haul on Oscar morning will have folks sweating that Best Picture nomination until the very end.
And If Beale Street Could Talk didn't do much better, receiving only two noms in Screenplay and Score. This is now the second group after SAG to pass on Regina King, which puts her in a very bizarre spot -- if she's Oscar nominated, it sure FEELS like she'd be the clear winner, but is there a real possibility that she somehow doesn't make the lineup at all? I can't think of another recent acting contender who was in a position like this.
Thankfully we were spared Bohemian Rhapsody in the top category, but it still did quite well down ballot, picking up to-me-ludicrous citations in categories like Cinematography and Editing, along with more understandable ones like Costume Design and Sound. The movie has a solid amount of support.
In happier news, First Man had perhaps its best showing (outside of the Broadcasters), doing very well below the line, and even making the Screenplay category along with Supporting Actress. It still seems likely it could end up with a decent Oscar haul.
As expected, this group went all in on The Favourite, finally giving Lanthimos a major directing citation, and cleaning up down ballot (including a not-obvious category like Film Editing). This is certainly good news for anyone hoping the film knocks out one of the DGA nominees come Oscar time.
Cold War also had a stronger than expected showing, making the Director/Screenplay lists. I'd been pretty lukewarm on the possibility of Pawlikowski actually nabbing the lone-director type Oscar slot -- the movie just didn't seem to be on the radar enough in mainstream terms -- but perhaps these nominations suggests it's not out of the realm of the possible.
I'd say Viola Davis's nomination was a pretty big deal. I'm having a heck of a time rationalizing who's going to get that fifth Best Actress spot, since none of the potential candidates (Blunt, Davis, Kidman, Collette, Hall, Pike, Fisher) really seem that likely to pull it off. Not sure Davis is the one who will, but this clearly shows Emily Blunt hasn't got it locked up as some have assumed.
I don't really know what to say about Margot Robbie continually showing up for nominations. Her movie isn't remotely a contender anywhere else (aside from Costumes), which often makes supporting nominations hard to come by. (See Chau, Hong). And though I think she has a meaty enough part (she's basically the lead of her portion of the movie, which is lopsided enough to be a legitimately supporting role), there's nothing she does with it that makes it a standout. Her precursor showing has to make her a legitimate enough Oscar potential, but her candidacy is just so odd to me.
BLACKkKLANSMAN Jason Blum, Spike Lee, Raymond Mansfield, Sean McKittrick, Jordan Peele
THE FAVOURITE Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Yorgos Lanthimos, Lee Magiday
GREEN BOOK Jim Burke, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga, Charles B. Wessler
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Bill Gerber, Lynette Howell Taylor
OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
BEAST Michael Pearce, Kristian Brodie, Lauren Dark, Ivana MacKinnon
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Bryan Singer, Graham King, Anthony McCarten
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Lanthimos, Ceci Dempsey, Ed Guiney, Lee Magiday, Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
McQUEEN Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui, Andee Ryder, Nick Taussig
STAN & OLLIE Jon S. Baird, Faye Ward, Jeff Pope
YOU WERE NEVER REALLY HERE Lynne Ramsay, Rosa Attab, Pascal Caucheteux, James Wilson
OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
APOSTASY Daniel Kokotajlo (Writer/Director)
BEAST Michael Pearce (Writer/Director), Lauren Dark (Producer)
A CAMBODIAN SPRING Chris Kelly (Writer/Director/Producer)
PILI Leanne Welham (Writer/Director), Sophie Harman (Producer)
RAY & LIZ Richard Billingham (Writer/Director), Jacqui Davies (Producer)
FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
CAPERNAUM Nadine Labaki, Khaled Mouzanar
COLD WAR Paweł Pawlikowski, Tanya Seghatchian, Ewa Puszczyńska
DOGMAN Matteo Garrone
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Gabriela Rodríguez
SHOPLIFTERS Hirokazu Kore-eda, Kaoru Matsuzaki
DOCUMENTARY
FREE SOLO Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi, Jimmy Chin
McQUEEN Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
RBG Julie Cohen, Betsy West
THEY SHALL NOT GROW OLD Peter Jackson
THREE IDENTICAL STRANGERS Tim Wardle, Grace Hughes-Hallett, Becky Read
ANIMATED FILM
INCREDIBLES 2 Brad Bird, John Walker
ISLE OF DOGS Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE Bob Persichetti, Peter Ramsey, Rodney Rothman, Phil Lord
DIRECTOR
BLACKkKLANSMAN Spike Lee
COLD WAR Paweł Pawlikowski
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Lanthimos
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
COLD WAR Janusz Głowacki, Paweł Pawlikowski
THE FAVOURITE Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
GREEN BOOK Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly, Nick Vallelonga
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
VICE Adam McKay
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BLACKkKLANSMAN Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Charlie Wachtel, Kevin Willmott
CAN YOU EVER FORGIVE ME? Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
FIRST MAN Josh Singer
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Barry Jenkins
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters, Eric Roth
LEADING ACTRESS
GLENN CLOSE The Wife
LADY GAGA A Star Is Born
MELISSA McCARTHY Can You Ever Forgive Me?
OLIVIA COLMAN The Favourite
VIOLA DAVIS Widows
LEADING ACTOR
BRADLEY COOPER A Star Is Born
CHRISTIAN BALE Vice
RAMI MALEK Bohemian Rhapsody
STEVE COOGAN Stan & Ollie
VIGGO MORTENSEN Green Book
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
AMY ADAMS Vice
CLAIRE FOY First Man
EMMA STONE The Favourite
MARGOT ROBBIE Mary Queen of Scots
RACHEL WEISZ The Favourite
SUPPORTING ACTOR
ADAM DRIVER BlacKkKlansman
MAHERSHALA ALI Green Book
RICHARD E. GRANT Can You Ever Forgive Me?
SAM ROCKWELL Vice
TIMOTHÉE CHALAMET Beautiful Boy
ORIGINAL MUSIC
BLACKkKLANSMAN Terence Blanchard
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK Nicholas Britell
ISLE OF DOGS Alexandre Desplat
MARY POPPINS RETURNS Marc Shaiman
A STAR IS BORN Bradley Cooper, Lady Gaga, Lukas Nelson
CINEMATOGRAPHY
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Newton Thomas Sigel
COLD WAR Łukasz Żal
THE FAVOURITE Robbie Ryan
FIRST MAN Linus Sandgren
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón
EDITING
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY John Ottman
THE FAVOURITE Yorgos Mavropsaridis
FIRST MAN Tom Cross
ROMA Alfonso Cuarón, Adam Gough
VICE Hank Corwin
PRODUCTION DESIGN
FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD Stuart Craig, Anna Pinnock
THE FAVOURITE Fiona Crombie, Alice Felton
FIRST MAN Nathan Crowley, Kathy Lucas
MARY POPPINS RETURNS John Myhre, Gordon Sim
ROMA Eugenio Caballero, Bárbara Enríquez
COSTUME DESIGN
THE BALLAD OF BUSTER SCRUGGS Mary Zophres
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Julian Day
THE FAVOURITE Sandy Powell
MARY POPPINS RETURNS Sandy Powell
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Alexandra Byrne
MAKE UP & HAIR
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY Mark Coulier, Jan Sewell
THE FAVOURITE Nadia Stacey
MARY QUEEN OF SCOTS Jenny Shircore
STAN & OLLIE Mark Coulier, Jeremy Woodhead
VICE Nominees TBC
SOUND
BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY John Casali, Tim Cavagin, Nina Hartstone, Paul Massey, John Warhurst
FIRST MAN Mary H. Ellis, Mildred Iatrou Morgan, Ai-Ling Lee, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor
MISSION: IMPOSSIBLE - FALLOUT Gilbert Lake, James H. Mather, Christopher Munro, Mike Prestwood Smith
A QUIET PLACE Erik Aadahl, Michael Barosky, Brandon Procter, Ethan Van der Ryn
A STAR IS BORN Steve Morrow, Alan Robert Murray, Jason Ruder, Tom Ozanich, Dean Zupancic
SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
AVENGERS: INFINITY WAR Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port, Dan Sudick
BLACK PANTHER Geoffrey Baumann, Jesse James Chisholm, Craig Hammack, Dan Sudick
FANTASTIC BEASTS: THE CRIMES OF GRINDELWALD Tim Burke, Andy Kind, Christian Manz, David Watkins
FIRST MAN Ian Hunter, Paul Lambert, Tristan Myles, J.D. Schwalm
READY PLAYER ONE Matthew E. Butler, Grady Cofer, Roger Guyett, David Shirk
BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION
I’M OK Elizabeth Hobbs, Abigail Addison, Jelena Popović
MARFA Gary McLeod, Myles McLeod
ROUGHHOUSE Jonathan Hodgson, Richard Van Den Boom
BRITISH SHORT FILM
73 COWS Alex Lockwood
BACHELOR, 38 Angela Clarke
THE BLUE DOOR Ben Clark, Megan Pugh, Paul Taylor
THE FIELD Sandhya Suri, Balthazar de Ganay
WALE Barnaby Blackburn, Sophie Alexander, Catherine Slater, Edward Speleers
EE RISING STAR AWARD
BARRY KEOGHAN
CYNTHIA ERIVO
JESSIE BUCKLEY
LAKEITH STANFIELD
LETITIA WRIGHT
anonymous1980 wrote:
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, The Favourite
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE Burning, South Korea Cold War, Poland Never Look Away, Germany Roma, Mexico Shoplifters, Japan
1) You have just put me off going to see The Favourite. I had no idea Bradley Cooper was in it;
2) Never Look Away may not qualify. I'd pick something else with a disclaimer that in the event Never Look Away doesn't qualify.......
Corrected and I replaced it with Happy as Lazzaro. Hopefully that one's eligible.
Just found out Happy as Lazzaro is not released in the UK until the middle of March so it is also probably not eligible. Films for consideration have to been released between a certain period which ends in very early February (meaning Burning just scraps in). Likewise, Capharnaüm doesn't open until later in February so it eligibility is unknown The BFTAs do also have special considerations for films outside this period but I am not aware of finding out which films may have been granted this. You may want to go with Dogman (Italy) or Custody (France) which actually got stellar reviews only to dismally fail at the box office. There is also The Heiresses - great UK reviews, dismal box office.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
anonymous1980 wrote:
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, The Favourite
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE Burning, South Korea Cold War, Poland Never Look Away, Germany Roma, Mexico Shoplifters, Japan
1) You have just put me off going to see The Favourite. I had no idea Bradley Cooper was in it;
2) Never Look Away may not qualify. I'd pick something else with a disclaimer that in the event Never Look Away doesn't qualify.......
Corrected and I replaced it with Happy as Lazzaro. Hopefully that one's eligible.
anonymous1980 wrote:
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, The Favourite
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE Burning, South Korea Cold War, Poland Never Look Away, Germany Roma, Mexico Shoplifters, Japan
1) You have just put me off going to see The Favourite. I had no idea Bradley Cooper was in it;
2) Never Look Away may not qualify. I'd pick something else with a disclaimer that in the event Never Look Away doesn't qualify.......
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
BEST FILM The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born
Widows
BEST BRITISH FILM Annihiliation
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Widows
You Were Never Really Here
BEST DIRECTOR
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Steve McQueen, Widows
Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
BEST ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
Joaquin Phoenix, You Were Never Really Here
BEST ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
Glenn Close, The Wife
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
BEST ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Jonathan Pryce, The Wife
Ben Whishaw, Mary Poppins Returns
BEST ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Amy Adams, Vice
Claire Foy, First Man
Margot Robbie, Mary, Queen of Scots
Emma Stone, The Favourite
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Pawel Pawlikowski, Janusz Glowacki and Piotr Borkowski, Cold War
Deborah Davis and Tony McNamara, The Favourite
Paul Schrader, First Reformed
Nick Vallelonga, Peter Farrelly and Brian Currie, Green Book
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Alex Garland, Annhilation
Spike Lee, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Wilmott and Charlie Wachtel, BlacKkKlansman
Nicole Holofcener and Jeff Whitty, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Steve McQueen and Gillian Flynn, Widows
Lynne Ramsay, You Were Never Really Here
BEST FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE Burning, South Korea Cold War, Poland Happy as Lazzaro, Italy Roma, Mexico Shoplifters, Japan
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM Early Man
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Spider-Man: Into the Spider Verse
Last edited by anonymous1980 on Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
