Screen Actors Guild Awards

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ITALIANO
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by ITALIANO »

rolotomasi99 wrote: If she wins, it will be one of the most unworthy acting victories in the history of the Oscars.

.
It would be one of the most embarassing Oscar wins ever. And I guess that especially the Acting branch will realize that (before it's too late, I hope). But of course, it's not just the actors who vote for the winners. (This is why the SAG will be especially interesting in this case).

Badley Cooper at least gives a professional performance. It will be the kind of Oscar wins that, even just because the competition seems to be unusually weak, I could live with - if not support.

And as for A Star is Born winning Best Picture... well, I had never even vaguely considered this possibility. Guess I will suddenly become a fan of Roma soon :)
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Big Magilla »

Yes, Bradley Cooper will probably win the SAG (as well as the Globe) unless there's a real populist, "let's play with their heads", surge for Rami Malek which could happen with the AFTRA influence. I wouldn't count out Ethan Hawke from winning the Oscar if he's nominated, but let's stick with the SAG nominees in the SAG thread.

I don't get the acclaim for Christian Bale as Dick Cheney, but maybe it's my aversion to Adam McKay's sophomoric brand of humor. He's a distinct also-ran here. Ditto John David Washington, who is perfectly fine in Black BlackKklansman, but doesn't do anything exceptional. Viggo Mortensen would probably have a shot if Green Book were more popular. No, it's Cooper or Malek.

Best Actress (or as they call it, Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role) is a tougher call. If this were SAG pre-AFTRA I'd say Glenn Close would have it in the bag given their penchant for makeup awards, but with the AFTRA influence, Lady Gaga is a real threat here.

They're not going to hold Melissa McCarthy's bad movies against her. The Norbit thing, if it was a factor, was one because it showed that after his standout work in Dreamgirls, Eddie Murphy went back to where he was before. McCarty's fisaco was before her current acclaimed work - they won't hold it against her. However, she's an also-ran up against Close and Gaga, as is Emily Blunt.

Olivia Colman has two things going against her. One is the failure of The Favourite to earn an ensemble nod - the other is the question of her placement vis-a-vis that of her co-stars. She would be a surprise winner here.

Best Supporting Actor, or to be all hoity-toity, Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role, is likely to go to either Richard E. Grant or Sam Elliot with Mahershala Ali having an outside chance. Adam Driver and Timothee Chalamet are the also-rans here. And, yes, actors do know who Grant is.

With presumed Oscar front-runner Regina King out of the race for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role, anything is possible. Any of the nominees except Emily Blunt, absurbly nominated in support of who knows what in A Quiet Place, could win this thing.

The cast award is most likely to go to Black Panther with its huge and uniformly good cast over A Star Is Born which has only three strong cast members. Black Panther will also likely take the stunt cast award.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

When I saw that A Star is Born got a Best Cast SAG nom, I had a “Trump just won Pennsylvania” feeling. Wisconsin is an Oscar nomination for Best Adapted Screenplay.

Honestly, it’s fine. Film culture is in such a weird place right now in this country, a poorly structured remake of “That Barbara Streisand Movie” makes sense.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by ThePianist »

Seems as if 'A Star is Born' really is winning best picture after all.

There's been a distinct underdog feeling to many recent winners, or at least a lack of long-held frontrunner status. It used to be that the frontrunner won handily and regularly, but obviously times have changed. Which is why I was initially betting on 'The Favorite' to pull off a surprise win; Searchlight, period piece, indie director finally garnering renegotiation, the female-driven narrative, etc. But it seems as if here, where it should've been nominated rather easily, it's apparently forgotten. Then again, The Shape of Water wasn't nominated for ensemble, and we all know how that turned out. However, I don't see a scenario where The Favourite will lead the nominations.

I feel trend this year is to recognize more populist works. This makes sense with the zeitgeist as well; people being so constantly bombarded by the mess happening in politics that they want to have more fun when they sit down to watch a movie. Democrats did well in the mid-terms, Trump is losing power (in a sense), people have spent the past 2 years in outrage, and I think it's now it's time for some respite.

Cooper's film is classic melodramatic escapism that would ideally pander to their liking.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by rolotomasi99 »

ITALIANO wrote:As for Lady Gaga, I wish you were right. One can say that Glenn Close isn't at her absolute best in The Wife - but she's still Glenn Close. A great actress. Lady Gaga, of course, isn't an actress. I know this, you know this. But we aren't American. The Academy is a mostly American group, and please just read how the Americans here - and they are all intelligent Americans - reacted to her amateurish performance. Some adored her, but ok, I expected that. But even those who are more, let's say, thoughtful... basically, they liked her, or pretended that they liked her, which is more or less the same.
I thought Lady Gaga was about as good in A STAR IS BORN as Beyonce was in DREAMGIRLS. I am absolutely flabbergasted at professional critics (not bloggers or entertainment writers, but actual critics) praising her so strongly. The film itself is good -- better than '76 but not as good as '37 and '54 -- but Lady Gaga keeps it from being great like the first two. People love to hate on Streisand, but compare the scenes of the two women singing through their grief in the final scene. Streisand feels like a woman barely holding it together while Lady Gaga is never in danger of her voice cracking or shedding more than a perfectly placed tear. This was the perfect role for her, and she could barely deliver. If she wins, it will be one of the most unworthy acting victories in the history of the Oscars.

Bradley Cooper, on the other hand, really impressed me. I would say he sold me on the worn out alcoholic playboy more than even March and Mason. He did a fine job as a director, and he could just be another Clooney or Costner (great debut with middling follow-ups). Hopefully the Academy will be satisfied with rewarding him in acting and Lady Gaga for song.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by ITALIANO »

MaxWilder wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:Christian Bale winning a second Oscar over an actor who has never won before but whom they clearly love and who has been nominated four times, who plays a tragic role in a movie which made them cry and which they will give many nominations to, and which - most importantly - he also directed?
And co-wrote. And sang in. And wrote some music/lyrics for. It's his.
Oh yes, even those. It's 100% his.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Sabin »

MaxWinkler wrote
She should not be forgiven (har-har) so quickly for The Happytime Murders. Not to mention the other dismal titles she has cranked out in the past ~5 years.
What's this shit about? Who cares?

She went from complete unknown to headliner overnight with Bridesmaids. She's one of THE ONLY headlining movie stars who can open a studio comedy of the decade. Sure, lots of her movies were awful and The Happytime Murders is no exception, but who knows? It could've been good. It just didn't turn out that way. Same thing with St. Vincent. And Spy is hilarious. I would've given it the Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Picture in 2015. It's certainly better than Trainwreck. So, we want to punish her for doing an independent film where she's excellent (apparently, I still haven't seen it, I'm the worst)? That's so needlessly catty. Let's reward her for when she deserves it.
Flipp525 wrote
Best Supporting Actor will either go to Sam Elliott or Richard E. Grant.
I haven't seen Can You Ever Forgive Me? but I think Best Supporting Actor is going to be up in the air until Oscar night. No idea who the Hollywood Foreign Press gives it to. I just never know. I think Grant will win the BAFTA but Ali will win the SAG.

At this point, I honestly think Mahershala Ali will win another Oscar. He's like Sam Elliott (who doesn't have enough to do). The nom might be enough. Green Book has a trail of controversy following it but everybody likes him. And not enough people know Grant to deign him worthy.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

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ITALIANO wrote:Christian Bale winning a second Oscar over an actor who has never won before but whom they clearly love and who has been nominated four times, who plays a tragic role in a movie which made them cry and which they will give many nominations to, and which - most importantly - he also directed?
And co-wrote. And sang in. And wrote some music/lyrics for. It's his.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by flipp525 »

I honestly feel like someone like Melissa McCarthy could sneak in for a win. Or Olivia Colman. How is this already a Gaga versus Glenn thing? It’s too soon.

I think Bradley is a clear Best Actor frontrunner.

Best Supporting Actor will either go to Sam Elliott or Richard E. Grant.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by ITALIANO »

Reza wrote:
ITALIANO wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:
The Regina King omission upended what seemed the one sure thing this year's Oscars had (well, apart from best song).
And apart from Best Actor, which now is the surest thing ever. It was sure even before, especially after I saw First Reformed and realized that Ethan Hawke - good as he is - could never even vaguely dream of getting an Oscar. Bradley Cooper will finally win, and for more than one reason. There is no other possible outcome.

And Ihope I won't have to say the same for Best Actress soon...
Cooper will probably win as they think he is due. But Bale is snapping at his heels.

Lady Gaga will not win. I feel it's going to be a Glenn Close moment.

Christian Bale winning a second Oscar over an actor who has never won before but whom they clearly love and who has been nominated four times, who plays a tragic role in a movie which made them cry and which they will give many nominations to, and which - most importantly - he also directed? No way, Reza. No way. Trust Italiano.

As for Lady Gaga, I wish you were right. One can say that Glenn Close isn't at her absolute best in The Wife - but she's still Glenn Close. A great actress. Lady Gaga, of course, isn't an actress. I know this, you know this. But we aren't American. The Academy is a mostly American group, and please just read how the Americans here - and they are all intelligent Americans - reacted to her amateurish performance. Some adored her, but ok, I expected that. But even those who are more, let's say, thoughtful... basically, they liked her, or pretended that they liked her, which is more or less the same.

So yes, I admit that Lady Gaga winning Best Actress is a nightmare that maybe won't happen. But I am not so sure anymore...
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by Reza »

ITALIANO wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:
The Regina King omission upended what seemed the one sure thing this year's Oscars had (well, apart from best song).
And apart from Best Actor, which now is the surest thing ever. It was sure even before, especially after I saw First Reformed and realized that Ethan Hawke - good as he is - could never even vaguely dream of getting an Oscar. Bradley Cooper will finally win, and for more than one reason. There is no other possible outcome.

And Ihope I won't have to say the same for Best Actress soon...
Cooper will probably win as they think he is due. But Bale is snapping at his heels.

Lady Gaga will not win. I feel it's going to be a Glenn Close moment.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by ITALIANO »

Mister Tee wrote:
The Regina King omission upended what seemed the one sure thing this year's Oscars had (well, apart from best song).
And apart from Best Actor, which now is the surest thing ever. It was sure even before, especially after I saw First Reformed and realized that Ethan Hawke - good as he is - could never even vaguely dream of getting an Oscar. Bradley Cooper will finally win, and for more than one reason. There is no other possible outcome.

And Ihope I won't have to say the same for Best Actress soon...
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by OscarGuy »

The reason Blunt is in support is because that's where the entire cast of A Quiet Place is being campaigned according to the screener.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by FilmFan720 »

mlrg wrote:Ethan Hawke is your usual critics darling, failed to get GG and SAG, kind of Oscar nominee
The last time one of those got a Lead Actor Oscar nomination was Gary Oldman in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bradley Cooper did it for American Sniper, but that was 1. not a critics darling and 2. more of a timing issue). That is quite the uphill battle.
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Re: Screen Actors Guild Awards

Post by HarryGoldfarb »

MaxWilder wrote:Bohemian Rhapsody?? (Insert queasy emoji.) This has to be one of the more obscure casts nominated. It's Rami Malek, incognito Mike Myers and some British character actors.

This has to be a case of SAG voters treating best ensemble as best picture. Was anyone talking about that cast?
Obviously not here since I don't post here as much as I used to or want to, but definitely I was talking about that cast...

I watched the film last weekend, and even though it is obviously designed as a ona man vehicle, I noticed how effective (and numerous) the whole cast was. I even commented this to my brothers and explicitely said a SAG nomination for Best Ensemble, as unlikely as it was, wouldn't be undeserving. So I'm glad I kind of foresaw this coming.

And no, I don't think this was a case of treating the category as best picture. The fact the film has a numerous even though not stellar cast is important here: although it's centered in Mercury, the film portraits many many characters... underdeveloped ones maybe (this is the script's fault), but unlike other recent one-man-show biopics, this films surrounds Mercury with a myriad of supporting characters that you remember in the end.
Last edited by HarryGoldfarb on Wed Dec 12, 2018 8:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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