National Board of Review

For the films of 2018
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by ITALIANO »

Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:According to Schrader on the DVD and Blu-ray, Diary of a Country Priest was his main influence.

I thought there was more of his Hardcore than Taxi Driver in it. Schrader himself is a bit scornful of being known primarily for Taxi Driver. He often says that no matter what he does, his obituary will refer to him as the writer of Taxi Driver.
If he doesn't want to be known as that, he shouldn't recycle the plot. This is what I wrote when I saw First Reformed:

"You have a isolated man suffering psychic pain in the aftermath of a disastrous war. He's putting his feverish thoughts into a journal, which we hear in voice-over. He becomes obsessed with the filth he sees all around him (in Taxi Driver, it was the urban chaos of NY in the 70s; here, it's extended to the entire polluted planet). He has contempt for the bureaucrats who answer his questions with platitudes. He begins to contemplate a violent act in response to all this (an act that's aborted). His great redemptive relationship is with a younger, fair-haired girl, for whom he cares more than anyone else."

Not since Ernest Lehman lifted scenes from North by Northwest for The Prize have I seen a writer so shamelessly plagiarize himself.

The good things about Paul Schrader is that he is an original voice in American cinema, and has been so now for decades, and that he's never been afraid of dealing with important subjects, often with more than one at the same time. Subjects which European films are maybe more accustomed to, but which really one rarely sees in American films. He also often provide his actors (the males especially) with powerfully raw roles.
The bad things about Paul Schrader are that he's sometimes more obvious than he thinks he is, that you feel that he's either not totally up to the task when he faces such subjects, or that he gets too carried away by them, like a preacher delievering a feverish sermon. Also his writing is intense, but at times (intentionally? conveniently?) confused, clumsy even.
First Reformed is, in a way, a combination of both his good sides and bad sides - one can't deny that it IS a Paul Schrader film, and Paul Schrader, like it or not, is an auteur, one of the few still active in the US. This doesn't mean that First Reformed is a great movie, of course, or even a good one - the ending(s) is particularly ludicrous.
Yet, while only a few years ago I'd have quickly dismissed such a movie, and found it annoying, today, after a succession of dreadful, uninspired, absurdly praised things like A Star is Born, I must admit that the good things in it suddenly seem to me to be more important than the bad things, and no, this doesn't make me think that it's great, but interesting, yes. I am more indulgent, more forgiving, towards this kind of admittedly flawed and at times downright irritating stuff. And Ethan Hawke - in a kind of role that we don't find anymore in mainstream American cinema - is very good.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Big Magilla »

I don't think any of the NBR winners are "doomed" at all.

While it's true that the NBR is not a good indicator of what will win the Oscar, it does tend to give its Best Film award to films that will at least be nominated for Best Picture. In the past twenty years, only two winners failed to be nominated. The worst period of disagreement was the 14 year period between 1958 and 1971 when Oscar nominated six of its winners and ignored eight.

These are the only NBR winners not to go on to a Best Picture nomination:

2014 - A Most Violent Year
2000 - Quills
1998 - Gods and Monsters
1987 - Empire of the Sun
1983 - Betrayal (co-winner with Oscar winner Terms of Endearment)
1979 - Manhattan
1978 - Days of Heaven
1971 - Macbeth
1969 - They Shoot Horses, Don't They?
1968 - The Shoes of the Fisherman
1967 - Far from the Madding Crowd
1965 - The Eleanor Roosevelt Story
1961 - Question 7
1958 - The Old Man and the Sea
1949 - The Bicycle Thief
1948 - Paisan
1947 - Monsieur Verdoux
1945 - True Glory
1939 - Confessions of a Nazi Spy
1933 - Topaze
1929 - Applause
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Re: National Board of Review

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I honestly thought Richard E. Grant would better fill the J.K. Simmons spot this year. Well respected character actor finally getting his due in a role that finally brings him attention. Sam Elliott's a character actor of sorts, but I see him less as an actor everyone has loved, but never had a chance to recognize, than Grant is. That said, it seems Can You Ever Forgive Me? is also struggling like BlacKkKlansman and others that we thought would be bigger players. Though, by its nature of being first, NBR also tends to be one of the least accurate Oscar predictors. That could be their Warner Bros./Clint Eastwood bias playing in. You look at their winners, though, 8 in the last 20 years have they picked Best Picture, but zero of the last 10. Casey Affleck, Brie Larson, Julianne Moore, Christopher Plummer, and Christian Bale are the only winners they've predicted in the last 10 years in Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress categories. That's five out of sixty nominations. The pattern holds for Original Screenplay as well, though Adapted Screenplay and Animated Feature are far more accurate for them.

Now, they do tend to tend to pick a lot of potential Oscar nominees, but even there their record is pretty abysmal compared to other precursors. I'd say if anything this award dooms Green Book's chances of winning Best Picture. It could also be a bad sign for Mortensen, Gaga, Elliott, and King. Of the groups to win an award from, this is probably the worst.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Reza »

Mister Tee wrote:I don't know what to say about Gaga. Maybe just, Forget it, Jake: it's NBR.
:D
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by The Original BJ »

I maintain committed to my feeling that the range of potential Oscar outcomes for Green Book is pretty small -- nominations for Picture and both actors, with Original Screenplay a possibility but also one the more discerning writers could easily pass on. I didn't think even with big box office it would reach King's Speech territory -- Hooper's film was just a better (and better reviewed) example of more traditional Oscar bait -- though I don't think without it it's doomed as a candidate for nominations. There's usually at least one movie of its ilk that gets a Best Picture spot, at least as a chanceless candidate on the margins, which is all I think it will be.

As to First Reformed, I guess my argument would be that I think the details and world of the film are so specific, it doesn't feel like the ripoff to me that it does to Mister Tee. Watching the movie, I found myself thinking, this is clearly a Schrader film, but I didn't consciously register all those direct parallels to Taxi Driver until you pointed them out. Oddly enough, I was also going to use North by Northwest as an example in comparison, though in the reverse (vis-a-vis The 39 Steps), as an example of a filmmaker drawing from a similar well of themes and story ideas, without it really bothering me that it covers similar territory as an earlier work. But, to each his own.

To stay on the subject, First Reformed also seems to be holding on as a candidate far better than I imagined when I wrote the mid-year post, winning Hawke the Best Actor prize from the Gothams yesterday, and nabbing the Original Screenplay prize here (over, truthfully, some more writer-centric options). It's possible it might find its way into the Oscar field in both those categories.

It's interesting that both leading categories seem to have frontrunners (with Cooper clearly the strongest Best Actor candidate at the moment, and at least a top tier of 2-3 actresses that seem to be running ahead of the pack in Best Actress), but both supporting categories seem all over the map in terms of what position anyone seems to be in right now. I think a lot of this has to do with the fact that the supporting categories have neither a bunch of "overdue" contenders, nor the kind of J.K. Simmons/Mo'Nique-level standouts that make people think "obviously, they're winning everything." The hope, of course, is that this results in precursors to a lot of different people, keeping the races competitive as long as possible, though I've learned not to get my hopes up in that regard after recent years.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by rolotomasi99 »

Mister Tee wrote:Harris' article is mostly good, but what in the name of god is he doing throwing Three Billboards into the argument? Artistically/tonally, it's hard to find two moves further apart than Billboards and Green Book. It reminds me that, a year ago, there were a bunch of critics who utterly missed the boat on McDonagh's film, and their discernment has not improved over time.
Some of us are just really sick of seeing movies about "lovable" racists being redeemed without really having to pay for their actions. That bullshit was old after IN THE HEAT OF THE NIGHT and has no place in the 21st Century. Some white people really love that story though, and it is how many of them justified voting for Trump. THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE OF EBBING, MO would have been a much better movie if Rockwell's character had died and Harrelson's character had lived. I thought the Chief's relationship with McDormand's character was much more compelling and far less problematic.

As for GREEN BOOK, while many folks cite the A+ Cinemascore it received, I think the audience demographics are interesting: 59% white vs 20% black. I think it is this discrepancy that is hurting GREEN BOOK's box-office. I agree it will probably make more money than the last five Best Picture winners, but from the hype I had been hearing since Toronto this movie was supposed to be a hit on the level of THE HELP and HIDDEN FIGURES (both $169 m). My dad and step-mom are the kind of folks who love these types of film (they thought THE BLIND SIDE was terrific!) but when I spoke to them over Thanksgiving they said there was nothing good coming to theaters over the next few months. Either the marketing for GREEN BOOK is terrible or the moviegoers who usually eat up this pablum are just not intrigued by the story the film is telling.

Also, I love how BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY (the highest grossing gay movie ever) can be considered a film for the whole family. My how far we have come! :lol:
Last edited by rolotomasi99 on Tue Nov 27, 2018 8:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:According to Schrader on the DVD and Blu-ray, Diary of a Country Priest was his main influence.

I thought there was more of his Hardcore than Taxi Driver in it. Schrader himself is a bit scornful of being known primarily for Taxi Driver. He often says that no matter what he does, his obituary will refer to him as the writer of Taxi Driver.
If he doesn't want to be known as that, he shouldn't recycle the plot. This is what I wrote when I saw First Reformed:

"You have a isolated man suffering psychic pain in the aftermath of a disastrous war. He's putting his feverish thoughts into a journal, which we hear in voice-over. He becomes obsessed with the filth he sees all around him (in Taxi Driver, it was the urban chaos of NY in the 70s; here, it's extended to the entire polluted planet). He has contempt for the bureaucrats who answer his questions with platitudes. He begins to contemplate a violent act in response to all this (an act that's aborted). His great redemptive relationship is with a younger, fair-haired girl, for whom he cares more than anyone else."

Not since Ernest Lehman lifted scenes from North by Northwest for The Prize have I seen a writer so shamelessly plagiarize himself.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Greg »

Big Magilla wrote:Here's Jeffrey Wells' rebuke of Mark Harris' argument:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2018/11/ ... the-knife/

Here's his assessment of the poor box-office of Green Book and other well-received festival films:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2018/11/ ... ike-flies/

This is pretty ominous. If these kinds of films no longer draw audiences all theatrical releases in the not-too-distant future are likely to be the "generic family-friendly sludge movies (Ralph Breaks the Internet, Creed II, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Bohemian Rhapsody, Instant Family, A Star Is Born) making all the dough" may be the only kinds of films that will be made for theatres. More thought-provoking films will be consigned strictly to TV and streaming.
What was Wells thinking when he labelled A Star Is Born family-friendly?
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by OscarGuy »

The Favourite pulled in $104k for its weekend average and I've heard from friends who aren't Oscar watchers who are excited to see it. So, I think it just takes the RIGHT kind of movie.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Big Magilla »

Precious Doll wrote:
Mister Tee wrote:
Sabin wrote:Biggest loser: probably First Man.
Do all the people promoting First Reformed really not care how blatant a rip-off it is of Schrader's own Taxi Driver?
Plenty of writers/directors often repeat themselves over and over again, though I felt First Reformed owed more to Bresson's Diary of a Country Priest which is a favourite of Schrader.
According to Schrader on the DVD and Blu-ray, Diary of a Country Priest was his main influence.

I thought there was more of his Hardcore than Taxi Driver in it. Schrader himself is a bit scornful of being known primarily for Taxi Driver. He often says that no matter what he does, his obituary will refer to him as the writer of Taxi Driver.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Big Magilla »

Here's Jeffrey Wells' rebuke of Mark Harris' argument:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2018/11/ ... the-knife/

Here's his assessment of the poor box-office of Green Book and other well-received festival films:

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2018/11/ ... ike-flies/

This is pretty ominous. If these kinds of films no longer draw audiences all theatrical releases in the not-too-distant future are likely to be the "generic family-friendly sludge movies (Ralph Breaks the Internet, Creed II, Dr. Seuss’ The Grinch, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Bohemian Rhapsody, Instant Family, A Star Is Born) making all the dough" may be the only kinds of films that will be made for theatres. More thought-provoking films will be consigned strictly to TV and streaming.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Precious Doll »

Mister Tee wrote:
Sabin wrote:Biggest loser: probably First Man.
Do all the people promoting First Reformed really not care how blatant a rip-off it is of Schrader's own Taxi Driver?
Plenty of writers/directors often repeat themselves over and over again, though I felt First Reformed owed more to Bresson's Diary of a Country Priest which is a favourite of Schrader.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Mister Tee »

Sabin wrote:Biggest loser: probably First Man.
Or The Favourite. Or BlackkKlansman. Or Vice. It was a notable year for films-we-think-might-score-best-picture-nods being omitted from NBR's top ten. (Though we'd do well to recall that, a year ago this day, we thought The Shape of Water and Three Billboards had suffered deep wounds by being left off. Their 4-of-6 top Oscars said otherwise.)

So, I pat NBR on the head for no longer being the Driving Miss Daisy/Shine sort of group, and they go and prove me wrong by picking Green Book.

A few things about Green Book: 1) I'm not as ready as Mark Harris is to start shoveling dirt on the film. A year ago this time, I thought Darkest Hour was proving a huge disappointment, and the damn thing defied box-office gravity to hold on for a nauseatingly solid gross. The poor start likely means Green Book can't reach the Slumdog/King's Speech heights its backers once maybe dreamed of, but don't underestimate the ability of pure shlock to rally. 2) Sabin is correct, though, that the Oscar pundits who swooned over Green Book at Toronto seem personally offended by audiences' not turning out in droves. (This even includes generally sane people like the Gleib.) These people seem like they're yelling at us for not confirming their expectations -- it reminds me a bit of the DC pundits who got furious when we didn't follow their direction and toss Clinton out for his blow-job. The really strange part is, many of these pundits would, in most circumstances, excoriate something like Green Book for being "Oscar bait" -- but since they decided it was THE Oscar bait to get behind, they seem to have lost sight of that. 3) Harris' article is mostly good, but what in the name of god is he doing throwing Three Billboards into the argument? Artistically/tonally, it's hard to find two moves further apart than Billboards and Green Book. It reminds me that, a year ago, there were a bunch of critics who utterly missed the boat on McDonagh's film, and their discernment has not improved over time.

As for the rest here:

I saw The Favourite today (will comment later), but I will say, though it's a period piece, it's not the sort of period piece the old-line NBR would have embraced. So, it's omission doesn't come as total jolt.

If you're predicting NBR, ALWAYS include a Coen Brothers movie (or a Spike Jonze, if available). Buster Scruggs joins Burn After Reading and Hail, Caesar! as unlikely choices.

Buzz is that WB didn't screen The Mule for NBR -- the only possible explanation for Clint not winning multiple prizes.

I said it in my prediction yesterday: Glenn Close really needed this. She's going to need a win from the Broadcast Critics to revive.

I'd say it was a good day for Roma: getting a seat at the big kids' table (i.e., not being ghettoized as foreign) suggests the film is in the general race.

Do all the people promoting First Reformed really not care how blatant a rip-off it is of Schrader's own Taxi Driver?

The kids at Awards Watch think Sam Elliott is going to sweep the critics a la J. K. Simmons. Does anyone else see this? I think supporting actor is a field with multiple candidates, definitely including Adam Driver and Richard E. Grant. I'd be shocked if critics fell in single file.

I don't know what to say about Gaga. Maybe just, Forget it, Jake: it's NBR.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by flipp525 »

I’ve never bought into the idea of Claire Foy as a contender this year.
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Re: National Board of Review

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
It will be interesting to see how Green Book fares with the New York Film Critics two days hence.
I think it's going to be very uninteresting. I sincerely doubt it wins anything. Maybe Mahershala Ali has a shot.

Earlier today, Mark Harris wrote a pretty terrific takedown of Green Book asking who was it supposed to be for. Now we have our unsurprising answer. The National Board of Review crowd.

(For your reading enjoyment: https://www.vulture.com/2018/11/green-b ... e-for.html)

Green Book needed this victory. If you'd believe the pundits, cinema had three great tragedies this week: the death of Bertolucci, the death of Roeg, and the death of Green Book at the box office. Its underperformance at the box office has caused some to cry out to the heavens that cinema as we know it has ended. Green Book has become the Marco Rubio of the Oscar race. In a few moments, I expect to hear people say "It wasn't supposed to do well at the box office. It's really going to take off when the Golden Globes come out." The truth of the matter is this: the critics who saw Green Book and predicted it would be a smash were out of touch and they don't want to admit it.

That said, the wound has been cauterized some and reports of the death of Green Book will be officially on hold until the Golden Globe nominations.

Other movies did fine. I'd argue that A Star is Born did just fine by NOT winning Best Picture, instead winning awards for Lady Gaga's acting as well as Bradley Cooper's direction (making the film look like a serious piece of craftsmanship), Sam Elliot's supporting performance. And two categories this year seem wide open: Best Supporting Actress and Best Adapted Screenplay. If Beale Street Could Talk lands in both of them.

Biggest loser: probably First Man.
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