Kicking Off the Fall Season

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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Post by bizarre »

Some major players have been reviewed since Venice and Telluride kicked off:

DOWNSIZING - Todd McCarthy, pretty much a bellwether of the 'average academy voter's tastes, loved this. However there are some divisive reactions, especially regarding its second half. MVP notices across the board have gone to Hong Chau, who looks to net a Supporting Actress nomination regardless of whether or not the film succeeds in other categories, though as it stands it looks like it will be a decent player for nominations in Picture, Director, Screenplay and possibly Production Design, Visual Effects or Editing, the latter only if it has BP passion. Damon's reviews have been lukewarm and a Globe nomination is probably what he can hope for at best. Waltz has also been singled out, but the role has also been criticised as one-note. Regardless, he could be a nomination possibility in a very thin Supporting Actor field, especially if Cranston is campaigned as a lead.

THE SHAPE OF WATER - While there are some outliers who have criticised this as fluff, responses across the board are passionate enough to get this easy nominations in Picture, Director and across the techs, with possibilities in Screenplay. Hawkins' reviews have been stellar and she's a strong threat for a nomination and even the win if of-yet-unseen contenders fall by the wayside. Supporting cast reviews have been strong but not as enthusiastic - the roles have been criticised as one-note, though Shannon & Jenkins in Supporting Actor and Spencer in Supporting Actress could show up in thin fields, though I wouldn't count on it.

SUBURBICON - Most critics see this as a disappointment covering territory mined far more successfully in other films, and say the political allegories are on-the-nose and possibly in bad taste in today's political and social climate. Many say that the Coens script has been wasted and neutered with George Clooney as director, though most critics agree that it's a fun diversion. Isaac is receiving strong reviews, though his role is a cameo and he won't be in the running barring a Michael Shannon-'08 type coup. Moore gets "some fun moments" but some critics have called her miscast. Damon has received modest praise and has been credited with carrying the unoriginal film well enough, though the strongest reviews have all gone to Noah Jupe who plays Damon's son in the film.

LEAN ON PETE - Strong reviews from the 'cinephile' crowd, modest reviews from the awards-focused pundits. Strong ink for the film from critics who compare it to Reichardt and Bresson, and praise from both camps for young star Charlie Plummer. Steve Buscemi, however, is hardly mentioned at all in any reviews and appears to be out of the running for this.

DARKEST HOUR - All reviewers tend to be in agreement that this is standard-issue Oscar bait, but they all praise Oldman and call him a frontrunner, though most admit this is due to cynical reasons based on historical trends. Variety gives the strongest review for him, calling it one of his best performances. Plaudits for the film's screenplay, direction and techs have been measured but solid. Many critics think the film may suffer from fatigue from similarly-themed releases such as TV's The Crown. Supporting cast have surprisingly received little praise, one line at most in most reviews - Scott Thomas receives strongest praise, nothing too special however, though most reviews note that she's only in a few scenes. If Mendelsohn is mentioned his performance is generally complimented modestly, though some critics differ and there have been some notices saying he improves on Firth's performance of the same role. Either could still happen in weak fields, and will probably show up at BAFTA. Lily James and Ronald Pickup appear to be out of the running in by-the-numbers roles.

FILM STARS DON'T DIE IN LIVERPOOL - Strong reviews for the leads, Bening and Bell, and some decent notices for Julie Walters in support but many criticisms of the lightness of the film, its plotlessness and the poor job it does conveying Gloria Grahame's historic celebrity and legacy to an audience who may not have heard of her. However, most critics have thrown Bening in the ring - her performance has been widely complimented - with caveats that she's unlikely to break through in a strong field, especially if the film isn't commercially successful. THR's rundown of its awards chances asserts that if Bening couldn't make it in for 20th Century Women, she won't for this, though some certainly disagree at this point.

THREE BILLBOARDS OUTSIDE EBBING, MISSOURI - Reviews were surprisingly middle-of-the-road for this, many calling its screenplay contrived and its comedy somewhat strained and muddled. McDormand, however, was praised across the board but she's unlikely to break out except at the Globes and in smaller precursors. Of the supporting cast Harrelson got the most attention, but he's still an outlier contender in a weak field.

THE GLASS CASTLE - Respectable reviews for the cast - though the strength of Larson's role was criticised - though generally seen as a blip on the fall radar. Doubtful that this will make an impact.

OUR SOULS AT NIGHT - All critics agree that this is a breezy, pleasant though unmemorable romance focused at the older market. Fonda and Redford are reported to work well together in this romance but it won't be a presence in the upcoming awards season.

FIRST REFORMED - Strong reviews for the film from some camps - mainly European critics - and generally strong ink for lead Ethan Hawke (some calling it his best work as an actor) and supporting actress Victoria Hill, though like most of Schrader's other films there has been no talk about awards prospects and it appears unlikely to secure a release date for this year.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Post by bizarre »

Yeah, I never took Mudbound seriously after the Netflix pickup, though I thought Mitchell & Blige could show up at SAG or BFCA. This will kill the former's chances for that.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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It's premiering on Netflix so that will likely kill Mudbound's chances anyway.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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We're talking about something that just happened, which all of Hollywood has seen, not some second-hand gossip from a few years back.

I've been in this situation. It wasn't a first class seat I lost, but a legroom upgrade that I paid for, but lost because my connecting flight was delayed. Did I carry on like a raving lunatic? No, I was grateful just to get on the flight even though I had a cramped middle seat between two heavyset guys and no legroom and the plane was going in the wrong direction! Jet Blue couldn't get me on another New York-Oakland flight, so they put me on a New York-Boston flight with a connecting flight to San Francisco which caused me to take a train from San Francisco to Oakland where my car was parked. It was 26 hours door-to-door from my hotel in Rome to my home in the San Francisco Bay Area.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Post by Sabin »

You're right. This is really going to affect Casey Affleck's chances for -- oh sorry, Jason Mitchell. We're talking about Jason Mitchell this year.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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I think we can forget Jason Mitchell getting an Oscar nod for Mudbound or anything else any time soon after this:

http://www.tmz.com/2017/08/28/jason-mit ... rst-class/
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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'Darkest Hour' has been seen, and the screenings have been said to be lightly middlebrow and dry.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Post by Reza »

Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The Last Detail was a strong character study. Last Flag Flying looks to be one as well. The characters, though, are not the same.
Actually, they ARE the same in the Ponicsan novel on which it's based -- it's older versions of Buddusky/Mulhall/Meadows. And pretty clearly even here the personalities match up exactly: braggadocious guy, sad sack, black guy. It's something of a mystery why Linklater bothered to change the names. (And changing Mulhall to Mueller is barely even trying.)
Don't know why there is talk about this film for nods because it looks pretty underwhelming from its trailer.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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Mister Tee wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:The Last Detail was a strong character study. Last Flag Flying looks to be one as well. The characters, though, are not the same.
Actually, they ARE the same in the Ponicsan novel on which it's based -- it's older versions of Buddusky/Mulhall/Meadows. And pretty clearly even here the personalities match up exactly: braggadocious guy, sad sack, black guy. It's something of a mystery why Linklater bothered to change the names. (And changing Mulhall to Mueller is barely even trying.)
I didn't know that, but it's probably a smart thing to do to avoid direct comparison with the original actors. Cranston is no Nicholson and Carell at 5'9" falls six inches short of Randy Quaid's imposing 6'5'. Fishburne would have it easier as I don't think anyone remembers the late Otis Young in anything else. I looked at his list of credits on IMDb. and I know I've seen him in some of the things he did on TV, especially the ones he did right after the film - Columbo, Cannon, Ellery Queen, but I don't remember him in any of them.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Post by Mister Tee »

Big Magilla wrote:The Last Detail was a strong character study. Last Flag Flying looks to be one as well. The characters, though, are not the same.
Actually, they ARE the same in the Ponicsan novel on which it's based -- it's older versions of Buddusky/Mulhall/Meadows. And pretty clearly even here the personalities match up exactly: braggadocious guy, sad sack, black guy. It's something of a mystery why Linklater bothered to change the names. (And changing Mulhall to Mueller is barely even trying.)
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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The Last Detail was a strong character study. Last Flag Flying looks to be one as well. The characters, though, are not the same.

I'm not sure why Cranston's character is considered the lead, if in fact he is, but just the same he is being compared to Nicholson's character grown old, just as Carell is being compared to Randy Quaid's character and Laurence Fishburne to Otis Young's.

I don't know how long they can keep giving Cranston awards and awards nominations based on residual love for Breaking Bad. Trumbo was crap. His playing of LBJ in the TV version of Broadway's All the Way was several thick slices of ham. I didn't find anything he does in the trailer impressive. Carell is playing a character who just lost his son, which on the surface seems a lot more compelling. Fishburne, however, seems to be the one playing a character with the biggest arc as a staid preacher reverts to his old self on the trip to bury Carell's son. That bit seems to be in the mode of last year's Captain Fantastic when Mortensen and his kids dig up his wife's body in order to give her a different kind of funeral.

I see a possible Best Picture nod, a likely Best Adapted Screenplay nod, but nothing else unless one of the actors is nominated and that one looks like Fishburne right now.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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bizarre wrote
The Last Flag Flying trailer has dropped, and it looks like an easy bet in the main categories.
You wrote a lot more after that, but I have one reservation about the trailer: what happens on their journey? Right now, I don't know anything. The trailer is a great feat of salesmanship for sure. It sells mood and prestige and Richard Linklater is a great filmmaker, but his sole breakthrough ('Boyhood') was not exactly a plot machine. Sure, he's working from other source material but there could be a big difference between 'Last Flag Flying' and 'The Last Detail.' The latter is about two officers who want to show their detainee one last great time before turning him in. With 'Last Flag Flying,' who knows what they do on the way back? What if it's a series of mournful conversations?
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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Judging from that trailer (and the source material) he ticks all the boxes for a Supporting gong-winning character and performance, and he has stiff competition in Lead from actors with better campaign narratives.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

Post by The Original BJ »

bizarre wrote:Long story short if Cranston goes Supporting for this he's easily winning.
Unless someone else wins.
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Re: Kicking Off the Fall Season

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The Last Flag Flying trailer has dropped, and it looks like an easy bet in the main categories. Hasn't really cleared up the category confusion - trailer presents Carell and Cranston as more or less co-leads with Fishburne as sidekick, though Cranston is second-billed to Carell (though - alphabetic order who knows). The story revolves around the Carell character and the men's mission to bring Carell's son's body home, so I could easily see Cranston sent to supporting, where he'd clearly be an easy winner. That'd probably be the smartest awards strategy in the absence of major competition (Dafoe seems set for a nomination but enthusiasm for this as a 'winning role' doesn't seem to be there, and Stuhlbarg's character seems too superficially similar to Ali's for me to predict him outright).

Long story short if Cranston goes Supporting for this he's easily winning. Slot it in your Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay predictions too.

That being said, Gold Derby gets their category placements directly from the studios and currently has Cranston in lead and the other guys in supporting, so keep an eye on this I guess. I'll continue to predict Cranston in supporting and see what TIFF and Venice has in store for competition there - we'll get news on Buscemi within the next few weeks at least.
Last edited by bizarre on Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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