ThePianist wrote:Also, I'm sorry, but Denzel Washington in 'Roman Israel, Esq' IS NOT GOING TO GET NOMINATED.
Someone had to say it.
I'd love to know where you're getting your intel for this because stars seem ready to align for both him and Gilroy. Though that new title, sheesh...
I'm ready to recant my Downsizing predictions because yeah, testing reports are giving a Joy vibe - but Chau appears to be in the right place for a nomination. If it's good, it seems like an easy frontrunner - a little bit avant-garde but not too much (see: Birdman), political satire just comfortably liberal enough to avoid alienating the less adventurous members while locating a good compromise point for the cinephile side (see: Birdman), funny but not so funny it becomes the dreaded Comedy (see: Birdman, Argo), accessibly gimmicky (see: Birdman, The Artist). And what else is there that fits the bill? Last Flag Flying? And who knows how small-scale that one will be. I doubt they'll award one of the highly-anticipated sci-fi pics this year, I've made my thoughts known on The Papers below and Call Me by Your Name is a perfect and inevitable also-ran nominee à la Manchester by the Sea. Some people have tipped The Death of Stalin as a contender worth watching outside the Screenplay category, but Iannucci's last film, as clever and fun as it was, was less cinematic than most contemporary TV films. What could surprise? Phantom Thread? The Shape of Water? Radegund? Thank You for Your Service? Kings? This year seems ripe for a surprise populist pick making a splash at the fall festivals, like Slumdog Millionaire or Spotlight did, but I feel like even those (esp. the latter) were on some people's radars, and I'm not sure what's left that has enough high-profile talent behind it to get its foot in the door. Maybe Wonder if it's a huge hit and not too schmaltzy (Chbosky's last film struck a good balance).
Precious Doll wrote:Alexander Payne making a dud - it was going to happen sooner or later. He has had a very impressive track record to date. Can't think of another working director who has delivered so many good films one after the other.
Who knows, It might even be not that bad. Like I said, test screening audiences sometimes don't get "it" right. Like I said with 'La La Land' before.
But, the same test audiences that saw this, saw 'The Greatest Showman' and said that was it dull and very much like 'Annie' from 2014, and judging by "that" Trailer, I recommend for people to put off early bids for 'Downsizing' being a huge contender.
Alexander Payne making a dud - it was going to happen sooner or later. He has had a very impressive track record to date. Can't think of another working director who has delivered so many good films one after the other.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
bizarre wrote:
Slated for this year apparently, but most likely a dud I'm guessing. If it'll show up anywhere I'd say Toronto?
Speaking of "duds." Downsizing's Screening Reactions haven't been so decent
Then again, on the flip side, people who saw Test Screenings of 'La La Land' thought It would only be a Golden Globes Contender. But still, the Screenings for Alexander Payne's Social Satire have apparently been horrendous
Speaking of Saoirse Ronan, does anyone know what has happened with The Seagull. Filmed in 2015 and still unseen.
That can't be a good sign.
"I want cement covering every blade of grass in this nation! Don't we taxpayers have a voice anymore?" Peggy Gravel (Mink Stole) in John Waters' Desperate Living (1977)
I'd really like to know what's going on with On Chesil Beach - when it was announced Saoirse Ronan looked like a sure thing. Great role for an ascendant star with a screenplay by McEwan himself. Hope it doesn't go the way of, say, Brighton Rock or Suite Française.
These are my current predictions for the big 8 categories - I'll do techs later. I just did a big overhaul and I'm going out on a couple limbs here - some with regards to category placement but namely, assuming 2017 release dates for both Roman Israel, Esq. and Annihilation (the first next-to-confirmed, the latter hinted at). I'm cooling on The Papers, which seemed like a cynical cash-in on the current political turmoil to begin with but which also gives me a Lions for Lambs vibe. I'd like to post my ranked longlists to provide context here but I'm still not sure how to format spoiler tags on this board. I swear we used to be able to?
Best Picture Blade Runner 2049 (Prod: Broderick Johnson, Andrew A. Kosove, Cynthia Sikes & Bud Yorkin) Breathe (Prod: Jonathan Cavendish) Call Me by Your Name (Prod: Emilie Georges, Luca Guadagnino, James Ivory, Marco Morabito, Howard Rosenman, Peter Spears & Rodrigo Teixeira) Darkest Hour (Prod: Tim Bevan, Lisa Bruce, Eric Fellner, Anthon McCarten & Douglas Urbanski) Downsizing (Prod: Jim Burke, Megan Ellison, Mark Johnson, Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor) -- Winner Get Out (Prod: Jason Blum, Edward H. Hamm, Jr., Sean McKittrick & Jordan Peele) Last Flag Flying (Prod: Ginger Sledge & John Sloss) Mother! (Prod: Darren Aronofsky, Scott Franklin & Ari Handel) Roman Israel, Esq. (Prod: Todd Black, Jennifer Fox & Brian Oliver) 10. Detroit (Prod: Kathryn Bigelow, Mark Boal, Matthew Budman, Megan Ellison & Colin Wilson)
11. Wonderstruck (Prod: Pamela Koffler, John Sloss & Christine Vachon)
12. Annihilation (Prod: Andrew Macdonald & Allon Reich)
13. Dunkirk (Prod: Christopher Nolan & Emma Thomas)
14. The Florida Project (Prod: Sean Baker, Chris Bergoch, Kevin Chinoy, Andrew Duncan, Alex Saks, Francesca Silvestri & Shih-Ching Tsou)
15. The Papers (Prod: Kristie Macosko Krieger, Amy Pascal & Steven Spielberg)
16. Mudbound (Prod: Carl Effenson, Sally Jo Effenson, Cassian Elwes, Charles D. King, Christopher Lemole, Kim Roth & Tim Zajaros)
17. Wonder (Prod: David Hoberman & Todd Lieberman)
18. Phantom Thread (Prod: Paul Thomas Anderson, Megan Ellison & JoAnne Sellar)
19. The Greatest Showman (Prod: Peter Chernin, Laurence Mark & Jenno Topping)
20. On Chesil Beach (Prod: Elizabeth Karlsen & Stephen Woolley)
Best Director
Dan Gilroy, for Roman Israel, Esq.
Luca Guadagnino, for Call Me by Your Name
Richard Linklater, for Last Flag Flying
Alexander Payne, for Downsizing-- Winner
Denis Villeneuve, for Blade Runner 2049 06. Jordan Peele, for Get Out
07. Kathryn Bigelow, for Detroit
08. Darren Aronofsky, for Mother!
09. Alex Garland, for Annihilation
10. Christopher Nolan, for Dunkirk
Best Actor
Matt Damon, in Downsizing
Daniel Day-Lewis, in Phantom Thread
Andrew Garfield, in Breathe
Gary Oldman, in Darkest Hour-- Winner
Denzel Washington, in Roman Israel, Esq. 06. Timothée Chalamet, in Call Me by Your Name
07. Hugh Jackman, in The Greatest Showman
08. Tom Hanks, in The Papers
09. Robert Pattinson, in Good Time
10. Joaquin Phoenix, in You Were Never Really Here
Best Actress
Judi Dench, in Victoria and Abdul
Claire Foy, in Breathe-- Winner
Jennifer Lawrence, in Mother!
Frances McDormand, in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Emma Stone, in Battle of the Sexes 06. Jessica Chastain, in Molly's Game
07. Meryl Streep, in The Papers
08. Daniela Vega, in A Fantastic Woman
09. Natalie Portman, in Annihilation
10. Kate Winslet, in Wonder Wheel
Best Supporting Actor
John Boyega, in Detroit
Bryan Cranston, in Last Flag Flying-- Winner
Willem Dafoe, in The Florida Project
Colin Farrell, in Roman Israel, Esq.
Michael Stuhlbarg, in Call Me by Your Name 06. Steve Carell, in Battle of the Sexes
07. Steve Buscemi, in Lean on Pete
08. Ben Mendelsohn, in Darkest Hour
09. Sam Rockwell, in Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
10. Mark Rylance, in Dunkirk
Best Supporting Actress
Hong Chau, in Downsizing
Allison Janney, in I, Tonya
Jennifer Jason Leigh, in Annihilation
Michelle Pfeiffer, in Mother!-- Winner
Kristin Scott Thomas, in Darkest Hour 06. Julianne Moore, in Wonderstruck
07. Vicky Krieps, in Phantom Thread
08. Melissa Leo, in Novitiate
09. Michelle Williams, in The Greatest Showman
10. Allison Williams, in Get Out
Best Adapted Screenplay Annihilation by Alex Garland Call Me by Your Name by James Ivory -- Winner The Death of Stalin by Armando Iannucci, Ian Martin & David Schneider Last Flag Flying by Richard Linklater & Darryl Ponicsan Wonderstruck by Brian Selznick 06. The Disaster Artist by Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber
07. Molly's Game by Aaron Sorkin
08. Wonder by Stephen Chbosky, Steve Conrad & Jack Thorne
09. Mudbound by Dee Rees & Virgil Williams
10. Blade Runner 2049 by Hampton Fancher & Michael Green
Best Original Screenplay Detroit by Mark Boal Downsizing by Alexander Payne & Jim Taylor -- Winner Get Out by Jordan Peele Roman Israel, Esq. by Dan Gilroy Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri by Martin McDonagh 06. Breathe by William Nicholson
07. Darkest Hour by Anthony McCarten
08. The Florida Project by Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch
09. The Papers by Liz Hannah & Josh Singer
10. Phantom Thread by Paul Thomas Anderson
Techs and others below. No longlists for these. Holding off on Documentary and Foreign-Language Film and the shorts of course.
Best Animated Film The Breadwinner Captain Underpants Coco-- Winner Ferdinand Loving Vincent
Best Cinematography Annihilation Blade Runner 2049-- Winner Call Me by Your Name Dunkirk Wonderstruck
Best Costume Design The Beguiled The Greatest Showman Murder on the Orient Express-- Winner My Cousin Rachel Phantom Thread
Best Film Editing Blade Runner 2049-- Winner Detroit Downsizing Dunkirk Get Out
Best Makeup & Hairstyling Darkest Hour Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 The Shape of Water-- Winner
Best Original Score Blade Runner 2049 (Jóhann Jóhannsson) -- Winner Darkest Hour (Dario Marianelli) Dunkirk (Hans Zimmer) The Shape of Water (Alexandre Desplat) Wonderstruck (Carter Burwell)
Best Original Song Beauty and the Beast Call Me by Your Name Ferdinand-- Winner The Greatest Showman The Star
Best Production Design Annihilation Blade Runner 2049-- Winner Downsizing Murder on the Orient Express Wonderstruck
Best Sound Editing Blade Runner 2049 Detroit Dunkirk-- Winner Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Best Sound Mixing Baby Driver Blade Runner 2049 Dunkirk-- Winner Star Wars: The Last Jedi Wonderstruck
Best Visual Effects Blade Runner 2049-- Winner The Shape of Water Star Wars: The Last Jedi Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets War for the Planet of the Apes
Total Nomination Count (not including Documentary and Foreign-Language Film nominations):
9 - Blade Runner 2049
7 - Downsizing
6 - Call Me by Your Name
5 - Darkest Hour; Dunkirk; Roman Israel, Esq.; Wonderstruck
4 - Annihilation; Detroit; Last Flag Flying
3 - Breathe; Get Out; Mother!; The Shape of Water; Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2 - Ferdinand; The Greatest Showman; Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2; Murder on the Orient Express; Phantom Thread; Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
1 - Baby Driver; Battle of the Sexes; Beauty and the Beast; The Beguiled; The Breadwinner; Captain Underpants; Coco; The Death of Stalin; The Florida Project; I, Tonya; Loving Vincent; My Cousin Rachel; The Star; Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets; Victoria and Abdul; War for the Planet of the Apes
Total Win Count (as above):
5 - Blade Runner 2049
3 - Downsizing
2 - Dunkirk
1 - Breathe; Call Me by Your Name; Coco; Darkest Hour; Ferdinand; Last Flag Flying; Mother!; Murder on the Orient Express; The Shape of Water
Last edited by bizarre on Sun Jul 09, 2017 4:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Love we have a new thread set up that's away from all the drama/arguing I accidentally put a hand in doing, sowwy
But anyways, I can't WAIT for the fall film festivals to come around, It'll give huge ammunition to films like: The Florida Project, Call Me By Your Name, Darkest Hour, Last Flag Flying, Breathe, and Downsizing. Among many, MANY others.
Anyways, ON TO MY PREDICTIONS FOR THIS MONTH... Best Motion Picture of the Year
WINNER Call Me By Your Name
Reasons: Most beloved film of Year from the ones who've seen it, the utter joy and sadness this film projects among swooned audiences will carry to awards season and will break out It's true potential. SPC also will push this film like wild fire. Also, I have a strange feeling 'Best Director' will be given to someone else, because Guadagnino will nominated as producer along with SIX other people, they'll probably lean towards giving him this honor instead. As for who'll win Best Director, well...
Best Achievement in Directing
WINNER The Florida Project: Sean Baker
Reasons: 'The Florida Project' is apparently everything that was great about 'Tangerine' done even better, and then some. Baker is apparently able to direct some jaw-dropping performances from some non-professional or nearly first-time actors. It's apparently on the level of 'Moonlight' and 'Room' Child Performances, If not better. Baker is reportedly able to capture the joy of these characters in an example of cinematic naturalism, with Solid Direction and a Vision. If It's not Nolan or an Unexpected Darkhorse like Peele, this is going to be the one that takes the Cake.
Best Performance By An Actor in a Leading Role
WINNER Breathe: Andrew Garfield
Reasons: Just a horrible gut wrenching feeling due to; "THIS MAN PORTRAYS A DISABILITY, GIVE HIM AN OSCAR!" A Retiring Day Lewis with backing and momentum, a possible Oldman with a baity role, or EVEN Chalamet might give him a run for his money, but I believe the Academy will fall back on their status quo and hand Garfield Best Actor for 'Breathe.' Goddamn it.
Best Performance By An Actress in a Leading Role
WINNER A Fantastic Woman: Daniela Vega
Reasons: Not only will a Political Statement be made, but a win for Vega will make a huge impact in Hollywood for a transgender winning Best Actress. A quiet, nuanced yet powerful performance from Vega will push her towards an emotional victory.
Best Performance By An Actor in a Supporting Role
WINNER Call Me By Your Name: Michael Stuhlbarg
Reasons: Although not having a large amount of screen time, Michael Stuhlbarg's last scene as Elio Perlman's Professor Father in 'Call Me By Your Name' has broken the hearts of the hundreds of people who've seen the Film. His performance is been compared to the likes of Robin Williams in 'Good Will Hunting;' Tender, Caring, and Heartbreaking. Stuhlbarg is one of the most, If not the most respected character working today. He's been in everything, and was already said to be snubbed in the Coen Brother's 'A Simple Man.' And since SPC will likely push him BIG TIME around awards season, his peers will likely vote for him along with the many people in Hollywood who (already mentioned) respect the hell out of him. The only person who might beat him, is William Dafoe for 'The Florida Project,' who defiantly has the respect and the current buzz behind him. But I predict Stuhlbarg will win Supporting Actor alongside the small Sweep CMBYN will have, along with It's Best Picture Win.
Best Performance By An Actress in a Supporting Role
WINNER Breathe: Claire Foy
Reasons: I predict Foy will get the 'Alica Vikander' type win. Claire Foy has gotten a BIG Break with the Netflix TV Series 'The Crown.' They'll likely want to prop the young star up even more with an Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. And much like Vikander, Bleecker Street will likely campaign her for Supporting instead of Leading to widen her chances, instead of her perceived nomination for leading.
RECAP:
Call Me By Your Name WINNER FOR:
Best Picture
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Supporting Actor
Best Original Song
The Florida Project
WINNER FOR
Best Director
Best Original Screenplay
Best Cinematography
Breathe WINNER FOR
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
A Fantastic Woman WINNER FOR
Best Actress
Best Foreign Language Film
Feel free to use this thread to post your predictions (not competitively as in the Psychic thread, but as benchmarks for discussing the race). This should hold us over until the excitement truly starts around the time of Venice and TIFF.
I've recently rehauled my predictions and will post them later. There are some interesting wrenches that could be thrown into the race - for instance, Alex Garland's Annihilation, which has been testing well, appears to be complete and may ultimately be shifted back to 2017 (which I'm gambling on in my latest set of predix).
It's the beginning of July and some recent developments that may impact the race include Daniel Day-Lewis' announcement of another "retirement", title changes for some films (eg. The Post -> The Papers, Inner City -> Roman Israel, Esq.), the release of the shameless but highly effective trailer for Breathe (qualifiers which may also apply to Victoria and Abdul, though to a lesser extent) which is marketing itself very shrewdly in multiple genres to multiple viewership demos, the release of the equally shameless but less effective trailer for Stronger, Last Flag Flying's announcement as the NYFF opener, and the John McEnroe-Serena Williams controversy which may ignite some additional crossover interest for the upcoming Battle of the Sexes which is shaping up to be a potential commercial hit. Other things to look forward to are the upcoming release of Detroit and the trailer releaes for Guillermo Del Toro's The Shape of Water, another wildcard that could make its presence known in the race this year. And, of course, the major game changer is the Academy's new membership announcement, continuing the diversity-focused democratisation of last year's initiative with many more voters of colour, women, young people, non-American film figures and artists working outside or on the fringes of the Hollywood system coming to shake up the predictability of Oscar's decisions.
Question - is there a way to use spoiler tags on this forum? I'd like to post my longlists to add some context to my predictions but would prefer not to cause clutter.
