Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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OscarGuy
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by OscarGuy »

You might want to check your opinion of Wright at the door because opinion matters not with Academy voters. You may hate him, but the Academy doesn't. Anna Karenina received four nominations. Yes, they were all tech categories, but that's four for a film that had a 63 metacritic score. Pride & Prejudice had an 82 on Metacritic and pulled four nominations, including Best Actress. And Atonement, which had an 85 on Metacritic and pulled in 7 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. Again, if it's anything like his period work (these three films), it's an Oscar contender. You may not like Wright, but plenty of others do and one axe to grind won't stop something that ends up inevitable (which won't be determined until December at any rate).
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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ThePianist wrote
THANK YOU! Of course It'll be a major contender, Orignal Screenplay for sure. I just can't get my ahead around these narks who are all like;
"THE PAPERS 2018 BEST PICTURE CONFIRMED CAUSE OSCAR BAIT AND POLITICAL CLIMATE" as early as July, while It's still filming. But there is still a possibility It'll be another "Bridge of Spies." :|
Well, then you need to spend less time on GoldDerby.

At this point in the year, I ask myself "What are the movies that could potentially be Best Picture contenders?" That means movies that could possibly compete, pick up lots of nominations, and possibly position themselves as a heavy. Some years, there are lots of films that fit that description. Some years, there aren't. 2012 was an incredible year for those kinds of films. I think any other year, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Les Miserables, Silver Linings Playbook, and Zero Dark Thirty could have won or made a stronger showing. The only thing working against The Papers is if it just doesn't connect and that doesn't seem likely to me, so The Papers is most likely a Best Picture contender.

I haven't seen Call Me By Your Name but I know a few people who have seen it, they love it, but they don't think it's going to win because it's, for lack of a better word, too European. But it's clearly going to be a conversation piece which will keep it in the game, so it has to be considered some kind of Best Picture contender.
ThePianist wrote
1 Time, 1 Time they did and they didn't even nominate him for Best Director. The 2nd Time was just for Tech Noms and an Acting Nom that was FAR from a Frontrunner. Joe Wright sucks. Just search up "Pan Smells like Teen Spirit' and tell me with a straight face his film will be nominated for Best Picture. :lol:
I don't think he sucks. I mean, he makes movies that are very accomplished. Atonement was nominated. If there were ten nominees in 2005, Pride & Prejudice likely would have been as well. He's not very good with story, so if he stays grounded with a character piece like Darkest Hour that might bode well for his chances. I think it has to be considered a Best Picture contender as well. It doesn't seem like a movie that would win, but here's a list of movies that I for sure thought would not win Best Picture after seeing them: The King's Speech, The Artist, Argo, Spotlight, Moonlight. What do I know?
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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OscarGuy wrote:So, historically, the Academy has shown an appreciation for his period work, which puts Darkest Hour into the positive column of options.
1 Time, 1 Time they did and they didn't even nominate him for Best Director. The 2nd Time was just for Tech Noms and an Acting Nom that was FAR from a Frontrunner. Joe Wright sucks. Just search up "Pan Smells like Teen Spirit' and tell me with a straight face his film will be nominated for Best Picture. :lol:

OscarGuy wrote: The secondary question is: who can possibly topple him for the award? Matt Damon for Downsizing? Alexander Payne has a much better track record with acting victories. Hugh Jackman for Greatest Showman? With that and Logan under his belt this year, awarding him might be seen as a given. Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread? He's already got three and is supposedly retiring from acting (again). Tom Hanks for Spielberg's Pentagon Papers film? Hanks has two already. Steve Carell for Battle of the Sexes? Benedict Cumberbatch for The Current War? Chadwick Boseman for Marshall? Jake Gyllenhaal for Stronger? There are many options, but none of them sound like they have the level of love that Oldman possesses or the prominence of a true-life role like this.
Andrew Garfield for 'The Theory of Everything.' Or Daniel Day Lewis as a Career Achievement. Timothée Chalamet might be able to have a very, very small chance. But I doubt it, he'll have the critical backing for sure though. Not saying Oldman doesn't have a shot (even though I did say he wasn't happening from the looks of it,) we'll see how far he goes, he might have 10x the shot now that 774 new members have been invited to join the Academy.

Also, I'm not trying to put down anybody. This is just for fun because of our massive passion for film. At the end of the day, the sign of all great art is not a fake golden statuette, but rather the ability to inspire. Great films are those which survive decades later in the minds of the people that it continues to inspire.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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Sabin wrote:Would any of us not have this on the top of our lists if Steven Soderbergh were directed? Steven Spielberg has been victim of his own dependability throughout his career and I expect this one will rack up several nominations, maybe a few wins, but probably not take Best Picture.
THANK YOU! Of course It'll be a major contender, Orignal Screenplay for sure. I just can't get my ahead around these narks who are all like;
"THE PAPERS 2018 BEST PICTURE CONFIRMED CAUSE OSCAR BAIT AND POLITICAL CLIMATE" as early as July, while It's still filming. But there is still a possibility It'll be another "Bridge of Spies." :|
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by ThePianist »

Best Picture 2015 - Birdman
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Best Picture 2016 - Spotlight
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Best Picture 2017 - Moonlight
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Best Picture 2018 - Call Me By Your Name
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Just don't come crawling to yours truly when It happens :wink:
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Sabin »

Steven Spielberg is seventy years old. There's no real reason to imagine his time with us is coming to a close but as a storyteller, he's gone through several different chapters. The wunderkind blockbuster impresario (Jaws through The Temple of Doom), the fading Oscar-chaser (The Color Purple through Hook), the kind of the world (Jurassic Park through Saving Private Ryan), the journeyman (A.I. through Munich), and finally the history teacher. War Horse, Lincoln, Bridge of Spies...I can only imagine The Papers furthers his journey into this category. And for the most part (which is to say except for War Horse), I like this phase. If his early work was all about a sense of other-wordly wonder, these films are about (for lack of a better term) American values, and mythologizing the complicated lives of heroic Americans throughout history, many of whom just want a good night's sleep. But ironically, if anybody else was directing this film, I would say "Yep, this could win for sure." Would any of us not have this on the top of our lists if Steven Soderbergh were directed? Steven Spielberg has been victim of his own dependability throughout his career and I expect this one will rack up several nominations, maybe a few wins, but probably not take Best Picture.

It's curious that Spielberg would tackle this story considering that by all accounts he was apolitical for most his life and he lived through this ordeal...but there's no reason to believe in our current climate that this won't be a major Oscar player. The screenplay made the Black List. It may not be finished yet but Spielberg is pretty uncanny in his ability to bring large-scale movies in on short windows. I don't think anyone else can do it quite like he can.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by The Original BJ »

Some of y'all have an awful lot of certainty about who will and won't be recognized from a crop of movies that literally aren't even finished being made yet.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by ThePianist »

Okri wrote:Some thoughts

I. Steven Spielberg has directed three best picture nominees since Minority Report, two of them overtly political in nature. I see no reason to dismiss The Paper out of hand
Not going to win BP. That's for sure.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Okri »

Some thoughts

I. Steven Spielberg has directed three best picture nominees since Minority Report, two of them overtly political in nature. I see no reason to dismiss The Paper out of hand

2. Tee's point about people predicting based on the stereotype of the oscar voter is on point, but I have to admit I actually enjoy enough of Wright's filmmography to be relatively hopeful about The Darkest Hour.

3. I find early predictions fun, but only because I don't really take them too seriously. If you went for straight oscar bait vs batshit lunacy, you'd probably get about the same number correct this early anyway. But more than that, the oscars as "cinematic organization" is also quite fun.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Big Magilla »

I wish you guys would stop quoting entire comments. It's giving me a headache.

If referencing the last comment, it's not necessary to quote anything from the previous comment. What you're referring to should be obvious.

When responding to an older comment, it's only necessary to quote the relevant part of the comment. You can start by clicking on the quote button to capture the entire comment, but then delete the portions of the comment that don't apply as Tee did in his last quote.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

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Reza wrote: I feel it's going to be a year where they will honour two British veterans - Oldman and Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul. They will, at the very least, both be nominated.
Yeah, that's what the diversification of the Academy membership is all about: to honor two aging Brits for playing figures from another century.

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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

Reza wrote:
bizarre wrote:I have liked Wright's past films and I think he's a cleverer craftsman and more auteuristic filmmaker than people give him credit for, but I can't say Darkest Hour looks interesting on paper - that being said, it's a revered actor who only got his career due in a (surprise) nomination quite recently after being first off the tongue when you'd ask people who one of the best non-nominated actors was, loaded up with prosthetics playing one of the major figures in recent history and a British icon and doing it at another pivotal time in British and world history. It'll clean up at the BAFTAS and in any usual year would haul in heaps of Oscar nominations regardless of its quality. Best Actor looks like a strong slate this year but I'll eat my hat if Oldman isn't nominated and I'd put money on him winning, sight unseen. I'm afraid to say he looks to be 'anointed'. There's gonna be lots of twists and hills to die on in what looks like a strange year (and judging from this year and last year's membership shakeups and their clear effect on last year's slate of nominees) but an Oldman snub is astronomically unlikely to be one of them.

The Globes nominating him, on the other hand - that's a wager :lol:

Edit: I'll be hesitant to drop him as my winner's prediction unless the film truly is a massive bomb, but I think his only competition for the gong are Day-Lewis (retiring for the millionth time) in a film that from what I've heard - though I've heard contradictory plot details - might be a tough sale for the Academy even if it wasn't directed by PTA, who they seem to have fallen out of love with. Friends who have read the Downsizing script say that Damon's role is very much straight-man to the lunacy going on around him and Hong Chau's role is the best bet for major contention, but if the film's a hit I'd predict him as a nominee though not a winner. Who else? Whichever Last Flag Flying actor is the lead, possibly, or Andrew Garfield (Breathe) or Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman), though I'm not personally confident in either film's wider chances. Other than them I don't see anyone on the horizon, unless the Washington-Gilroy film gets a release this year - a lot of people were angry that he lost last year and with the new membership I can see that bloc growing.
I feel it's going to be a year where they will honour two British veterans - Oldman and Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul. They will, at the very least, both be nominated.
Exactly. I don't buy Dench as a winner yet for this particular Frears film, though - the film doesn't have the sheen of seriousness that helped Mirren sweep in 2006. Best Actress is crowded with veterans and I feel that if a past winner would be honoured for a comic film it's more likely to be McDormand, but we'll see as she could just as easily not be nominated.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by anonymous1980 »

I've edited my picks. We'll see who's the PSYCHIC. FYI: I'm not counting the host question because it was announced early. Consider this the last call for entries.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by Reza »

bizarre wrote:I have liked Wright's past films and I think he's a cleverer craftsman and more auteuristic filmmaker than people give him credit for, but I can't say Darkest Hour looks interesting on paper - that being said, it's a revered actor who only got his career due in a (surprise) nomination quite recently after being first off the tongue when you'd ask people who one of the best non-nominated actors was, loaded up with prosthetics playing one of the major figures in recent history and a British icon and doing it at another pivotal time in British and world history. It'll clean up at the BAFTAS and in any usual year would haul in heaps of Oscar nominations regardless of its quality. Best Actor looks like a strong slate this year but I'll eat my hat if Oldman isn't nominated and I'd put money on him winning, sight unseen. I'm afraid to say he looks to be 'anointed'. There's gonna be lots of twists and hills to die on in what looks like a strange year (and judging from this year and last year's membership shakeups and their clear effect on last year's slate of nominees) but an Oldman snub is astronomically unlikely to be one of them.

The Globes nominating him, on the other hand - that's a wager :lol:

Edit: I'll be hesitant to drop him as my winner's prediction unless the film truly is a massive bomb, but I think his only competition for the gong are Day-Lewis (retiring for the millionth time) in a film that from what I've heard - though I've heard contradictory plot details - might be a tough sale for the Academy even if it wasn't directed by PTA, who they seem to have fallen out of love with. Friends who have read the Downsizing script say that Damon's role is very much straight-man to the lunacy going on around him and Hong Chau's role is the best bet for major contention, but if the film's a hit I'd predict him as a nominee though not a winner. Who else? Whichever Last Flag Flying actor is the lead, possibly, or Andrew Garfield (Breathe) or Hugh Jackman (The Greatest Showman), though I'm not personally confident in either film's wider chances. Other than them I don't see anyone on the horizon, unless the Washington-Gilroy film gets a release this year - a lot of people were angry that he lost last year and with the new membership I can see that bloc growing.
I feel it's going to be a year where they will honour two British veterans - Oldman and Judi Dench for Victoria and Abdul. They will, at the very least, both be nominated.
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Re: Psychic Oscar Predictions Contest!

Post by bizarre »

ThePianist wrote:
bizarre wrote:Torn between my love of lists and my desire to see my pet favourites represented somewhere and my disgust at the deterioration of the industry and critical integrity lol.
That means your foresight sucks and you should stop then. There's no way Gary Oldman will win Best Actor.

Your part of the problem imo
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By your logic, none of us should be posting in this thread at all, so I'm really not sure what your point is.
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