Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Precious Doll »

Big Magilla wrote:
I haven't read the book, but Annette Bening is 59 years old, just about right for playing Gloria Grahame in her final days. She was 57 when she died. They would either have to photograph her through thick lenses or use another actress for the flashback sequences.

Jamie Bell spent most of those four years starring in the cable TV series TURN: Washington's Spies in which he was considerably more bulked up than in his big screen appearances.

I'd like to think Julie Walters would be deserving of a supporting nod, but having predicted her blindly for Brooklyn, I'll wait until I know more about her role before I add her to my predictions.
I wouldn't be surprised if they do away with the flashbacks. The better part of the book were her last days.

If the film does work and Benning gets nominated I think she will win, particularly if they can capture last moment the Peter Turner and Gloria Grahame farewell each other. It's THE moment of the books that has remained with me the most.

I watched A Quiet Passion again last night on Blu Ray having first seen the film last November at the cinema. It stands up magnificently. I still don't think Cynthia Nixon will make the final five due to the fact that Music Box is the distributor and they probably don't know the first thing about launching an Oscar campaign. However, I would not be surprised, even with all the films mentioned below, if Nixon takes New York & L.A. If she mounts her own campaign she could sneak in with Jennifer Ehle on her coat tails in supporting. It is such a crying shame that they really are and will remain long shots. And that goes for Keith Carradine and the scene stealing Catherine Bailey.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Big Magilla »

Precious Doll wrote: Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Sabin, I've read the book and I couldn't imagine a better title) is based on the 1987 autobiography by Peter Turner who had had an affair with Gloria Grahame years earlier. As I said I have read the book and it was back when it was first published. At the time, and I still do, think it could make a great film in the right hands. I don't think this will be it. Firstly, the book moves back and forth from the last days of Graham's life to her life in the 1950s. I have a feeling the film will cover the later years only. Really don't know if Annette Benning can pull it off. She's fine playing L.A. earth mothers but beyond that she is a rather limited actress.

Jamie Bell is just so wrong on every level. I haven't seen him in anything for 4 years so I can only hope that he has become more manly because he has always come across as a teenager and has yet to display a level a maturity that this role requires.

Julie Walters is perfect casting as Bell's mother. When I read the book back in 1987 and thought about a film version I would have picked Melanie Griffith, Gary Oldman & Julie Walters who had shown she can play 'older' back than as with Prick Up Your Ears.
I haven't read the book, but Annette Bening is 59 years old, just about right for playing Gloria Grahame in her final days. She was 57 when she died. They would either have to photograph her through thick lenses or use another actress for the flashback sequences.

Jamie Bell spent most of those four years starring in the cable TV series TURN: Washington's Spies in which he was considerably more bulked up than in his big screen appearances.

I'd like to think Julie Walters would be deserving of a supporting nod, but having predicted her blindly for Brooklyn, I'll wait until I know more about her role before I add her to my predictions.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by criddic3 »

Kate Winslet is 41. By Hollywood standards that's not so young. Unless she continues getting solid roles like Meryl Streep, her chances of winning a second lead Oscar are going to become scarce.

I agree with others here that if enough of these titles pan out, this could be one of the better years for female acting categories.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

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I think Mister Tee summed up Judi Dench very well. I get the impression she is widely respected but having only ever seen her film work the admiration for her is not shared by me as I remain largely unimpressed. I saw a trailer to her new film and she and the film look awful. As a matter of fact I really don't get all the acclaim for Dench over the years. Whilst I admired her work in Mrs. Brown & Notes on a Scandal, everything else just comes across as going through the motions. I can only concur that her admiration is based on her stage career.

I do think a second win is a possibility but that will depend on numerous factors which have been covered below.

One of the other things I think is going against Kate Winslet is she won her first Oscar for such an undeserved performance and film. She's still young and there is plenty of time for other chances.

Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (Sabin, I've read the book and I couldn't imagine a better title) is based on the 1987 autobiography by Peter Turner who had had an affair with Gloria Grahame years earlier. As I said I have read the book and it was back when it was first published. At the time, and I still do, think it could make a great film in the right hands. I don't think this will be it. Firstly, the book moves back and forth from the last days of Graham's life to her life in the 1950s. I have a feeling the film will cover the later years only. Really don't know if Annette Benning can pull it off. She's fine playing L.A. earth mothers but beyond that she is a rather limited actress.

Jamie Bell is just so wrong on every level. I haven't seen him in anything for 4 years so I can only hope that he has become more manly because he has always come across as a teenager and has yet to display a level a maturity that this role requires.

Julie Walters is perfect casting as Bell's mother. When I read the book back in 1987 and thought about a film version I would have picked Melanie Griffith, Gary Oldman & Julie Walters who had shown she can play 'older' back than as with Prick Up Your Ears.

How Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool fares at the Oscars and critics remains to be seen, but if Annette Benning is nominated there is a strong possibility of Julie Walters getting in coat tales nomination if the part is as good as it is in the book.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Mister Tee »

Sabin wrote:
Big Magilla wrote
Judi Dench was nominated for Best Actress Oscars for Iris and Notes on a Scandal in which her co-stars Kate Winslet and Cate Blanchett, respectively, were nominated for Best Supporting Actress. On Dench's last nomination for Philomena, she lost Best Actress to Blanchett for a Woody Allen film. Losing another one to another former co-star with the same first name, albeit spelled differently, for another Woody Allen film would be ironic. I don't see it happening.
I do. To be perfectly honest, I don't think anybody really feels like Judi Dench desperately deserves another Oscar. Besides, wasn't the Oscar she won for Shakespeare in Love basically a makeup win for Mrs. Brown anyway? Honestly, what year did she come close to winning since? It's possible she came in second for Philomena but that was such a weak year for actresses.
To respond to this and several posts further downthread: there are two Judi Dench's to talk about. She came to film prominence very late in life (after a long stage & TV career); there were many who thought her Mrs. Brown breakthrough was something special, and that her loss to Helen Hunt that year was something that needed to be remedied. (I always felt Helena Bonham Carter was the screw-ee that year, but, as so often, I don't reflect Academy taste.) Dench's win for Shakespeare in Love the next time out was incontestably related to that hangover feeling -- though her Elizabeth was a solid piece of work in the best picture winner, the role was pretty brief, and someone without her narrative would have been much less likely to win.

In any case, at that point she had an Oscar in hand, and, though she began accumulating nominations, often for unexciting stuff (Chocolat and Mrs. Henderson Presents are really pointless nods), I don't think many saw her as someone working her way up to a second win. She was basically a throw-in in all those contests (though, as noted below, Notes on a Scandal was one time she absolutely deserved a nomination). I think Magilla (and maybe Reza) conflate their own affection for her overall career with some general Academy enthusiasm for her to triumph again -- an enthusiasm for which I see no particular evidence. I'd argue that Kate Winslet -- who waited a whole lot longer than Dench did to win her first, and then threatened to score a second time for Steve Jobs -- rates far higher on many people's lists than Dench.

I think Sabin makes a fair point, that the political climate for a Woody Allen effort would be even harsher than it was just for years ago. But we're talking about a film that looks poised to get a critical boost: in addition to the Wells rumor, there's the fact of the film being chosen to close the NY Film Festival, and that the studio is opening it in December -- the first Woody with such a slot since, I don't know, September? If Winslet gives a performance that grabs the critics the way Blanchett's did, a bunch of nasty posts on Jezebel may not be enough to hobble her.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

Big Magilla wrote
Judi Dench was nominated for Best Actress Oscars for Iris and Notes on a Scandal in which her co-stars Kate Winslet and Cate Blanchett, respectively, were nominated for Best Supporting Actress. On Dench's last nomination for Philomena, she lost Best Actress to Blanchett for a Woody Allen film. Losing another one to another former co-star with the same first name, albeit spelled differently, for another Woody Allen film would be ironic. I don't see it happening.
I do. To be perfectly honest, I don't think anybody really feels like Judi Dench desperately deserves another Oscar. Besides, wasn't the Oscar she won for Shakespeare in Love basically a makeup win for Mrs. Brown anyway? Honestly, what year did she come close to winning since? It's possible she came in second for Philomena but that was such a weak year for actresses.

I think there's one major thing working against Kate Winslet and that is Woody Allen. The world has changed a lot since 2013 and if Wonder Wheel is any kind of hit, I think the knives are going to sharpen for him and his past charges are going to get raked through the mud all over again.
Big Magilla wrote
I do, however, see her possibly losing to Bening who famously lost two previous bids to the same younger actress - Hilary Swank.
All right...I've just looked at Films Stars Don't Die, which is such an awful title!

It's not really directed by anybody good...the writer has some talent...it certainly looks like if it's any good she could win, but I'm getting pretty tired of predicting that Annette Bening is going to win an Oscar. This time last year, I think I had her down for two nominations for 20th Century Women and Rules Don't Apply. Wake me when the SAG nominations come out.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Big Magilla »

Judi Dench was nominated for Best Actress Oscars for Iris and Notes on a Scandal in which her co-stars Kate Winslet and Cate Blanchett, respectively, were nominated for Best Supporting Actress. On Dench's last nomination for Philomena, she lost Best Actress to Blanchett for a Woody Allen film. Losing another one to another former co-star with the same first name, albeit spelled differently, for another Woody Allen film would be ironic. I don't see it happening. I do, however, see her possibly losing to Bening who famously lost two previous bids to the same younger actress - Hilary Swank.

In any case, this is shaping up to be a strong year for leading actresses, at least on paper.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

According to Jeffrey Wells, Kate Winslet gives a Blue Jasmine-like performance in wonder wheel, with a big teary five minute monologue.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Big Magilla »

Word has it that Sony classics is close to signing a deal for the North American release of Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool which could make Annette Bening the front-runner for Best Actress playing a former Oscar winner who dies at the end!

Of the five or six veteran front-runners, she and Michelle Pfeiffer are the only ones without an Oscar and Pfeiffer has a chance at a supporting Oscar this year for Mother.

My current predictions for Best Actress:

Annette Bening, Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool
Judi Dench, Victoria and Abdul
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Meryl Streep, The Papers
Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel

Long shot:
Michelle Pfeiffer, Where is Kyra?
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by mlrg »

Reza wrote:
bizarre wrote:The only performance she's been nominated for that isn't remembered as 'filler' was Notes on a Scandal.
Dench's performances in Mrs Brown and Shakespeare in Love were certainly not 'fillers'.
She should have won for Mrs Brown. Her win the following year was a true makeup win.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Reza »

bizarre wrote:The only performance she's been nominated for that isn't remembered as 'filler' was Notes on a Scandal.
Dench's performances in Mrs Brown and Shakespeare in Love were certainly not 'fillers'.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by bizarre »

I think the question here is - yes, Dame Judi has admirers, but does she have "fans"? I just don't think she has the kind of sentimental clout to win for a bit of Frears fluff. Smith at least has a cult, and Dench's celebrity and prestige is a different beast to that of, say, Streep. The only performance she's been nominated for that isn't remembered as 'filler' was Notes on a Scandal.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by ThePianist »

Really shocked 'A Fantastic Woman' made it to the Festival. And I'm REALLY shocked 'Call Me By Your Name' made it to. Thought it would only appear at NYFF and maybe a few others. I'm starting to be really high on 'Downsizing', "SCREENING REACTIONS" be damned. It'll definitely be the 'Boyhood', ''The Revenant', or 'La La Land' of this year. The supposed 'Awards Season' darling that loses to something else I suppose. I'm predicting either for Nolan or Alexander Payne to win Best Director. Nolan might have a bigger shot considering he's never won an Oscar Before.

All else aside, It's basically confirmed by this point...

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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Sabin »

Prediction: consensus at the end of the year is that Hugh Jackman was better in Logan than The Greatest Showman.
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Re: Oscar Predictions & Race Discussion Thread - July to Toronto

Post by Precious Doll »

Big Magilla wrote:I
Best Actor - Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman

Is there anyone who doesn't like Hugh Jackman?
Me.
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