New York Film Critics predictions

[Okri]

So, looking over these: most everyone got 5-7 on the nose, and had the other winners in the alt. column. Big exception: cinematography, a big goose-egg here.

I got four, but I'm giving myself double credit for predicting the three actresses correctly (as per Tapley, anyway)

[Mister Tee]

So, looking over these: most everyone got 5-7 on the nose, and had the other winners in the alt. column. Big exception: cinematography, a big goose-egg here.

[FilmFan720]

Swinton was heartbreakingly brilliant in Only Lovers Left Alive, but it's a co-lead performance so I don't know about shoehorning her into support. The blogosphere is pushing her for Snowpiercer, which I haven't seen, in that category. Her part in The Grand Budapest Hotel seems too small to merit consideration but then the NYFC did name Jack Nicholson Best Actor for his cameo appearance in Broadcast News in 1987 along with his lead roles in Ironweed and The Witches of Eastwick.

Yeah, I know she's a lead in Only Lovers Left Alive...I was more thinking that they would honor her for Snowpiercer, especially in conjunction with Grand Budapest Hotel (which I feel they may like more than expected) and then throw that performance in. who knows, though!

We will, in just a few minutes.

[Sabin]

Let minute update for Chris Rock winning Best Screenplay for Top Five.

Best Picture - Boyhood (r.u. The Grand Budapest Hotel; Mr. Turner)
Best Director - Richard Linklater, Boyhood (r.u. Alejandro G. Innaritu, Birdman; Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner)
Best Actor - Michael Keaton, Birdman (r.u. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game)
Best Actress - Julianne Moore, A Map of the Stars & Still Alice (r.u. Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant & Two Days, One Night; Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl)
Best Supporting Actor - J.K. Simmons, Whiplash (r.u. Edward Norton, Birdman; Ethan Hawke, Boyhood)
Best Supporting Actress - Patricia Arquette, Boyhood (r.u. Jessica Chastain, Interstellar & A Most Violent Year; Carrie Coon, Gone Girl)
Best Screenplay - Top Five (r.u. The Grand Budapest Hotel; Birdman)
Best Cinematography - Birdman (r.u. Mr. Turner, Selma/A Most Violent Year)
Best Foreign-Language Film - Ida (r.u. Leviathan; Force Majeur)
Best Documentary - Citizenfour (r.u. Life Itself; National Galler)
Best Animated Film - The Lego Movie (r.u. The Tale of Princess Kaguya, Big Hero 6)
Best First Film - Nightcrawler (r.u. Dear White People, The Babadook)

[Okri]

Film: Birdman
RU: Boyhood, A Most Wanted Man

Director: JC Chandor
RU: Innaritu, Linklater

Actor: Keaton
RU: Redmayne, Cumberbatch

Actress: Moore
RU: Cotillard, Mbatha-Raw

Supporting Actor: Hawke
RU: SImmons, Norton

Supporting Actress: Arquette
RU: Russo, Stone

Screenplay: The Grand Budapest Hotel
RU: Birdman, Selma

Cinematography: Mr. Turner
RU: Birdman, Ida

Foreign Language Film: Force Majeure
RU: Leviathan, Ida

Best Documentary: Citizenfour
RU: Tales of the Grim Sleeper, National Gallery

[Mister Tee]

FWIW, Citizenfour is far from Laura Poitras' first film.

Thanks, Eric. I was taking the word of people at other sites. Will adjust.

Your replacement runner-up is called The Babadook, not The Badabook

I think I might have known that and typo-ed -- but it's such a nonsense word, who knows? (Whenever I look at it, I think of "gabagool" from The Sopranos)

[Big Magilla]

FWIW, Citizenfour is far from Laura Poitras' first film.

Thanks, Eric. I was taking the word of people at other sites. Will adjust.

Your replacement runner-up is called The Babadook, not The Badabook

[Mister Tee]

FWIW, Citizenfour is far from Laura Poitras' first film.

Thanks, Eric. I was taking the word of people at other sites. Will adjust.

[Eric]

FWIW, Citizenfour is far from Laura Poitras' first film.

[Big Magilla]

Swinton was heartbreakingly brilliant in Only Lovers Left Alive, but it's a co-lead performance so I don't know about shoehorning her into support. The blogosphere is pushing her for Snowpiercer, which I haven't seen, in that category. Her part in The Grand Budapest Hotel seems too small to merit consideration but then the NYFC did name Jack Nicholson Best Actor for his cameo appearance in Broadcast News in 1987 along with his lead roles in Ironweed and The Witches of Eastwick.

[Mister Tee]

S ACTRESS: Tilda Swinton, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Only Lovers Left Alive and Snowpiercer (ru: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year and Interstellar ; Patricia Arquette, Boyhood)

Interesting idea. Swinton is two-time runner-up, in '01 and '09 -- in '09, she was barely edged out by Streep -- and NY has shown some tendency to honor people with that credential (like Jennifer Lawrence last year, or Hope Davis in '03). I'd have to think it'd be mostly on the basis of Only Lovers Left Alive (which I haven't seen yet) -- she was a bit over-the-top (though memorably) in Snowpiercer, and barely in Grand Budapest.

[FilmFan720]

I see things a little different than all of you:

PICTURE: Birdman (ru: Boyhood; Selma)
DIRECTOR: Richard Linklater, Boyhood (ru: A.G. Inarritu, Birdman; Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel)
ACTOR: David Oyelowo, Selma (ru: Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner; Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game)
ACTRESS: Julianne Moore, Still Alice (ru: Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl; Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night)
S ACTOR: Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher (ru: J.K. Simmons, Whiplash; Edward Norton, Birdman)
S ACTRESS: Tilda Swinton, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Only Lovers Left Alive and Snowpiercer (ru: Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year and Interstellar ; Patricia Arquette, Boyhood)
SCREENPLAY: The Grand Budapest Hotel (ru: Birdman; Selma)
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Mr. Turner (ru: Selma; Birdman)
FOREIGN FILM: Ida (ru: Force Majeure; Two Days, One Night)
DOCUMENTARY: CITIZENFOUR (ru: Life Itself; Elaine Stritch: Shoot Me)
ANIMATED FEATURE: The Tale of Princess Kaguya (ru: The LEGO Movie; Big Hero 6)
FIRST FILM: Nightcrawler (ru: Dear White People; The Babadook)

[anonymous1980]

Picture: Boyhood
(RU: Birdman)
Director: Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu, Birdman
(RU: Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner)
Actor: Michael Keaton, Birdman
(RU: Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Actress: Julianne Moore, Still Alice
(RU: Jenny Slate, Obvious Child)
Supporting Actor: JK Simmons, Whiplash
(RU: Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice)
Supporting Actress: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
(RU: Rene Russo, Nightcrawler)
Screenplay: Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
(RU: Richard Linklater, Boyhood)
Cinematography: Dick Pope, Mr. Turner
(RU: Emmanuel Lubezki, Birdman)
Foreign Language Film: Force Majeure
(RU: Ida)
Documentary Feature: Citizenfour
(RU: Life Itself)
Animated Feature: Song of the Sea
(RU: The LEGO Movie)
First Film: The Babadook
(RU: Nightcrawler)

[Big Magilla]

It's hard to argue with Tee's predictions, but with slight variations just for the fun of it:

NY Film Critics 80th Anniversary predictions:

Film: Boyhood
(ru: Birdman, Mr. Turner)

Actor: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
(ru: Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler))

Actrss: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
(ru: Rosamund Pike (Gone Girl), Felicity Jones (The Theory of Everything))

Sup. Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
(ru: Edward Norton (Birdman), Ethan Hawke (Boyhood))

Sup. Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
(ru: Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year))

Director: Richard Linklater (Boyhood),
(ru: Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner))

Screenplay: Alejandro G. Innaritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris & Armando Bo (Birdman),
(ru: Richard Linklater (Boyhood)), Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel))

Cinematography: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman),
(ru: Dick Pope (Mr. Turner), Bradford Young (Selma/A Most Violent Year))

Foreign Language Film: Ida
(ru:Force Majeure, Leviathan)

Best Documentary: Citizenfour
(ru: 20,000 Days on Earth, Life Itself)

Animated Feature: No idea

First Film: Nightcrawler
(ru: Dear White People, The Babadook)

[Mister Tee]

Monday morning we'll be underway. My stab at what will happen -- I do a winner and two alternates, just because.

(And, a reminder: NBR follows only a day behind)

Film: Boyhood
(ru: Mr. Turner, The Grand Budapest Hotel)

Actor: Michael Keaton (Birdman)
(ru: Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner), Jake Gyllenhaal (Nightcrawler))

Actrss: Julianne Moore (Still Alice)
(ru: Scarlett Johansson (Under the Skin), Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant))

Sup. Actor: J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
(ru: Edward Norton (Birdman), Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher))

Sup. Actress: Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)
(ru: Rene Russo (Nightcrawler), Jessica Chastain (A Most Violent Year))

Director: Alejandro G. Innaritu (Birdman)
(ru: Richard Linklater (Boyhood), Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner))

Screenplay: Wes Anderson (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
(ru: Alejandro G. Innaritu, Nicolas Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris & Armando Bo (Birdman), Richard Linklater (Boyhood))
(Anderson’s been a runner-up three times in NY; they’ll want him to win this time)

Cinematography: Dick Pope (Mr. Turner)
(ru: Emmanuel Lubezki (Birdman),Bradford Young (Selma/A Most Violent Year))

Foreign Language Film: Force Majeure
(ru: Ida, Leviathan)

Best Documentary: Citizenfour
(ru: 20,000 Days on Earth, Life Itself)

Animated Feature: Song of the Sea
(ru: The LEGO Movie, The Tale of the Princess Kaguya)
(unconfirmed if Song of the Sea is NY eligible; if not, move Princess Kaguya up to the win spot)

First Film: Nightcrawler
(ru: Dear White People, The Babadook)
(some think Whiplash is a first feature, and it would win if it were; but I don’t think it qualifies)