National Society of Film Critics

For the films of 2013
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OscarGuy
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by OscarGuy »

I'd be surprised if Dallas Buyers Club wins Best Picture. A nomination is probably certain this point. The thing I couldn't help thinking while watching the movie is that it feels exactly like a movie that would have been made in the late 1980's or early 1990's (like And the Band Played On or Longtime Companion or that ilk), films which tackled a controversial subject in a period where it was most critical. While AIDS is still an epidemic and needs to have attention drawn to it, especially among younger gay men who didn't live through the imminent threat, this isn't quite the movie to bring that to the forefront. A well made movie that feels dated.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Eric »

Okri wrote:So this comment intrigued me and I went clicking through imdb. The last season that fit this bill (no repeats between the top prizes between the big three and AMPAS). We'd have to go back to 1989

1989
New York: My Left Foot, Paul Mazursky
Los Angeles: Do the Right Thing, Spike Lee
National Society: Drugstore Cowboy, Gus Van Sant
Oscar: Driving Miss Daisy, Oliver Stone

Since LA started, 1988 and 1981 are the only two other examples.
I hadn't taken director into consideration in the formula, but that's sort of amazing that '89 managed to still offer no repeats among the four. Unless somehow David O. Russell pulls out a best director win at the same time as 12 Years a Slave takes best picture, I don't think that'll happen this year, given NYFCC's Armond-belittled award to McQueen.

Have a few guild citations really pushed us into seriously entertaining the idea of Dallas Buyers Club flat out winning best picture? I need to sit down.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by ITALIANO »

OscarGuy wrote:I have no idea where that is coming from.
She obviously doesn't, either. That woman needs psychiatric help, soon. Or a long holiday. She's the product of the American "politically correct" AND feminism - an explosive mix, really. And what's fun is - she gets angry at American Hustle winning, though it hasn't happened yet!

I don't know which movie will win Best Picture at the Oscars this year. But whatever the outcome, it won't be for the reasons she days, and it won't deserve the reaction she'll have.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by OscarGuy »

Sasha Stone has suddenly declared American Hustle as the frontrunner. I have no idea where that is coming from. I've heard just as much criticism about the film being about almost nothing and being fun, but hardly a Best Picture winner. I know there's a recent trend towards off-beat comedic films, but American Hustle doesn't have the Harvey Weinstein connection to bolster it (like The King's Speech or The Artist). It doesn't have powerful things to say about either film history or royal impediments. I'm not saying that I think 12 Years a Slave is a lock, but it did win the Toronto audience award, which is rather sensational all things considered. In the end, it's the film that shows up in most of the guild precursor awards we need to consider. Right now, 12 Years and American Hustle are going to be the prime competitors out there. WGA notwithstanding (12 Years was ineligible), I don't think we're going to get anything from the guilds right now. Maybe DGA can shine a light, though I doubt it.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Big Magilla »

What's really intriguing about the comparison is that the presumptive favorite in 1989 was Born on the Fourth of July which failed to win any of the three top critics' prizes or the Oscar although it did win the Golden Globe for Drama. Similarly, Best Director Oscar winner Oliver Stone, also the presumptive favorite, did not prevail at any of the major precursors until the Globes before going on to win the Oscar.

The other similarity is that both Born on the Fourth of July and 12 Years a Slave are message films - i.e. films that are perceived as being both good and good for you, which in earlier days meant an almost automatic win - All Quiet on the Western Front; The Life of Emile Zola; Mrs. Miniver; The Lost Weekend; The Best Years of Our Lives; Gentleman's Agreement; Hamlet; All the King's Men; From Here to Eternity; On the Waterfront; The Bridge on the River Kwai; Lawrence of Arabia; A Man for All Seasons; In the Heat of the Night; Patton; The Deer Hunter; Kramer vs. Kramer; Ordinary People; Chariots of Fire; Gandhi; Platoon; The Last Emperor and Rain Man all being examples of this prior to 1989. Subsequent wins in this regard would include only Dances With Wolves; Schindler's List; Crash and The Hurt Locker, making 12 Years less a given than it might have been in the old days.

In the end, the 1989 Oscar went to a message film, albeit not the one we were expecting. To continue the comparison, is there a 2013 message film in the running other than 12 Years that hasn't won any of the three major critics' prizes that could win at the Oscars without a Best Director nomination? Not The Wolf of Wall Street with its message obscured by the despicable on-screen antics that make it seem to many that it is celebrating the bad behavior. Probably not Dallas Buyers Club, which until the guilds started kicking in had been pretty much sitting on the sidelines but this film has something else in common with the 1989 winner - a strong candidate for Best Actor and an almost certain winner in another acting category. As I said, probably not, but don't be shocked if it does.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Okri »

Eric wrote:As of yet, all of 12 Years' dominance has predominately been in the form of high nomination counts among the guilds. I imagine that will begin to change over the course of the next month -- indeed, as early as next Sunday at the Globes. But for the moment, behold how diverse the other precursors have been this year. (Trying to remember a year so muddy as this one, to be honest.) If 12 Years indeed wins best picture, that will mean Oscar and the three main critics' groups will have split their top prizes between five different films, with no repeats.

Franco is not my favorite individual element of Breakers by a longshot, but ... I'll take any scraps of recognition for the film available.

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So this comment intrigued me and I went clicking through imdb. The last season that fit this bill (no repeats between the top prizes between the big three and AMPAS). We'd have to go back to 1989

1989
New York: My Left Foot, Paul Mazursky
Los Angeles: Do the Right Thing, Spike Lee
National Society: Drugstore Cowboy, Gus Van Sant
Oscar: Driving Miss Daisy, Oliver Stone

Since LA started, 1988 and 1981 are the only two other examples.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Eric »

As of yet, all of 12 Years' dominance has predominately been in the form of high nomination counts among the guilds. I imagine that will begin to change over the course of the next month -- indeed, as early as next Sunday at the Globes. But for the moment, behold how diverse the other precursors have been this year. (Trying to remember a year so muddy as this one, to be honest.) If 12 Years indeed wins best picture, that will mean Oscar and the three main critics' groups will have split their top prizes between five different films, with no repeats.

Franco is not my favorite individual element of Breakers by a longshot, but ... I'll take any scraps of recognition for the film available.

Signed,
A sad old man pretending to be young but who is never gonna get this p***y.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by mlrg »

Reza wrote:
Big Magilla wrote:I think Oscar Isaac and Adele Exarchopolous have a better shot at winning Oscars this year than Jennifer Lawrence has of repeating so soon.
Damn. That means Lupita will win for 12 Years a Slave for a performance that basically consisted of screaming on cue each time the whip hit her. Not a good omen.
Reza, after watching 12 Years a Slave yesterday (I'll write about it later, but I hated it) your post is a perfect description of Lupita's "perfomance".
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Reza »

Big Magilla wrote:I think Oscar Isaac and Adele Exarchopolous have a better shot at winning Oscars this year than Jennifer Lawrence has of repeating so soon.
Damn. That means Lupita will win for 12 Years a Slave for a performance that basically consisted of screaming on cue each time the whip hit her. Not a good omen.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Big Magilla »

I think Oscar Isaac and Adele Exarchopolous have a better shot at winning Oscars this year than Jennifer Lawrence has of repeating so soon.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Okri »

a) I'd assert that Luise Rainer set that precedent when she won her two back to back oscars. Lawrence herself already became the youngest two time best actress nominee

b) I'm not convinced they're that different, despite the age. Waltz might have a long list of credits, but they're mostly in German productions. He was as new to American film as Lawrence was in Winter's Bone. As new as she is, she's starring in 2013's highest grossing release (yes, The Hunger Games will overtake Iron Man 3) and her upcoming list of films suggests Hollywood has taken a shine to her.

c) I'd also second BJ's assertion, though. No contender has really taken the brass ring. At this point, I could see Squibb, Nyong'o, or Lawrence winning.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Sabin »

At this point, I'd be surprised if Lawrence didn't win. When I say this, know that she would not make my shortlist and while she's fun in the role I think her part is detrimental to the film as a whole, but she's a damn star at the top of her game in a movie that is well liked if not loved and if one is looking for a place to reward it then she - not the script - makes the most sense. Voters will have more problems with the script than what she does on-screen. She's everything that usually wins a supporting award right down to being a big star putting on a show in a small role. It also helps that she's a total hoot and people in the industry A) love working with her, B) want to work with her, and C) love watching her win awards. Remember all that "Bad Winner" talk after she won the Golden Globe? That's beyond forgotten by now. She's the best winner on the planet.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Big Magilla »

Christoph Waltz was a 56 year-old actor with a long list of prior credits when he won his second Oscar. Jennifer Lawrence is a comparative newcomer at 23. She is winning awards from groups that did not award her last year. A second Oscar at this point in her career would be unprecedented.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by Okri »

Waltz in Django Unchained? Now, that category was different in that every nominee was a previous winner, but Waltz was the most recent one. It doesn't seem unreasonable.
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Re: National Society of Film Critics

Post by The Original BJ »

Mister Tee wrote:If Jennifer Lawrence hadn't just won the Oscar last year, would that category be clinched?
I've been thinking about this lately -- I think you're right that if Lawrence had lost for Silver Linings, she would be an extremely likely winner this time around. Beautiful young actress at the beginning of what appears to be a career of major stardom, in a very funny, movie-stealing role in a big Best Picture candidate. Doesn't that sound like a Supporting Actress bingo?

And yet, despite this, two Oscars in two years for such a young actor seems virtually inconceivable to me, and I imagine many will be resistant to picking her again on the basis of this alone. But...if no frontrunner emerges, and the race remains muddled to the end, perhaps we could see a final outcome where she's the top vote getter due to sheer enthusiasm for this performance and she wins an uncharacteristic second prize.
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